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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Analysts' Sales Expectations for Holidays

etuoyo on 18 October 2007
HappySqurriel said:

Wii Fit numbers seem really high but one thing we need to consider a few things:

  1. Over 2 Million people in Japan bought Wii Sports.
  2. The DS has really tapped into alternate markets in Japan and traditional "Non-Gamers" now have enough of an interest in gaming to market to them.
  3. Japan has (historically) been more willing to buy additional hardware to play quirky games than North American
  4. In many ways Wii Fit is a flagship title (on the level of Mario Galaxy) except it is targeting an alternative gamer market.

Now, I doubt it will hit 2 Million in 30 days but I expect it will sell in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 range with little trouble.


 I think Jon Lucas expects it to sell around 4 million in one week so in terms of sales predictions so far (these and that of Jon Lucas are the only ones I have seen) 2 million in 30 days is on the low side.



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Words Of Wisdom on 18 October 2007
etuoyo said:
HappySqurriel said:

Wii Fit numbers seem really high but one thing we need to consider a few things:

  1. Over 2 Million people in Japan bought Wii Sports.
  2. The DS has really tapped into alternate markets in Japan and traditional "Non-Gamers" now have enough of an interest in gaming to market to them.
  3. Japan has (historically) been more willing to buy additional hardware to play quirky games than North American
  4. In many ways Wii Fit is a flagship title (on the level of Mario Galaxy) except it is targeting an alternative gamer market.

Now, I doubt it will hit 2 Million in 30 days but I expect it will sell in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 range with little trouble.


I think Jon Lucas expects it to sell around 4 million in one week so in terms of sales predictions so far (these and that of Jon Lucas are the only ones I have seen) 2 million in 30 days is on the low side.


But the problem is just because there is a market of non-"hardcore" gamers doesn't mean that "casual" games are always guaranteed to appeal to that market.

I think too many people are getting attach rate with market size confused.  Just because there's a large user base out there doesn't mean it has a high attach rate for games. 

Wii Sports broke new ground.  However there is still the possibility it was a fluke.  Wii Fit sales will be very telling I think.



johnsobas on 18 October 2007

im suprised nobody has commented on umbrella chronicles. 500-600k seems quite high, i wonder if a gun shooter has ever sold that many copies in Japan on any system.

out of curiousity i looked up house of the dead 1 and 2 and found the first one sold 130k while the second sold 264k.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

mrstickball on 18 October 2007

I would agree RE:UC is a bit high. Again, buying a game + perpherial might dissuade some people from buying *that* many units.

Also, I know everyone is saying "oh, 2m Japanese people bought Wii Sports, they'll buy Fit too" - as true as that may be, Sports was half the price of Fit. That can be a huge thing no one is talking up.

I'm not saying it'll sell poorly, but most likely, it'll sell like Guitar Hero, at best. Decent beginning, and ultra long legs like a Brain Training-type game.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

HappySqurriel on 18 October 2007
Words Of Wisdom said:
etuoyo said:
HappySqurriel said:

Wii Fit numbers seem really high but one thing we need to consider a few things:

  1. Over 2 Million people in Japan bought Wii Sports.
  2. The DS has really tapped into alternate markets in Japan and traditional "Non-Gamers" now have enough of an interest in gaming to market to them.
  3. Japan has (historically) been more willing to buy additional hardware to play quirky games than North American
  4. In many ways Wii Fit is a flagship title (on the level of Mario Galaxy) except it is targeting an alternative gamer market.

Now, I doubt it will hit 2 Million in 30 days but I expect it will sell in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 range with little trouble.


I think Jon Lucas expects it to sell around 4 million in one week so in terms of sales predictions so far (these and that of Jon Lucas are the only ones I have seen) 2 million in 30 days is on the low side.


But the problem is just because there is a market of non-"hardcore" gamers doesn't mean that "casual" games are always guaranteed to appeal to that market.

I think too many people are getting attach rate with market size confused.  Just because there's a large user base out there doesn't mean it has a high attach rate for games. 

Wii Sports broke new ground.  However there is still the possibility it was a fluke.  Wii Fit sales will be very telling I think.


I think Wii Sports being a fluke is fairly unlikely with how much success Nintendo has had with similar "Blue-Ocean" games. In Japan Nintendo has sold more than 10 Million Brain Training games (over 14 Million if you include English and Common sense training), Animal Crossing has sold more copies in Japan on the Nintendo DS than any other version has sold, and Nintendogs has been very successful.

The truth is that these analysts are probably pretty good at predicting how the Japaneese market will react. I think that it is possible that Wii Fit could flop but I believe that it is far more likely that it would flop in the image conscience western countries than the quirky Japaneese market.



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naznatips on 18 October 2007

I agree as well about RE:UC and Wii Fit. It's not that I don't expect Wii Fit to be a huge success in Japan. Something like 2-2.5 million lifetime is not at all unreasonable, but it shouldn't sell more than 1-1.5 million this year at most.

Even on the PS2 RE4 sold under 500K lifetime in Japan. This also costs more than a normal game because of the zapper pack-in. I'd expect around 300K lifetime. Nowhere near 500K by years end. I think America will be where RE:UC sees the most success.



DarkNight_DS on 18 October 2007

Is anyone surprised to see that they expect Wii and DS games to sell more then any other systems games?



Prepare for termination! It is the only logical thing to do, for I am only loyal to Megatron.

Words Of Wisdom on 18 October 2007
HappySqurriel said:

I think Wii Sports being a fluke is fairly unlikely with how much success Nintendo has had with similar "Blue-Ocean" games. In Japan Nintendo has sold more than 10 Million Brain Training games (over 14 Million if you include English and Common sense training), Animal Crossing has sold more copies in Japan on the Nintendo DS than any other version has sold, and Nintendogs has been very successful.

The truth is that these analysts are probably pretty good at predicting how the Japaneese market will react. I think that it is possible that Wii Fit could flop but I believe that it is far more likely that it would flop in the image conscience western countries than the quirky Japaneese market.


It would be unwise to generalize the handheld market to the console market I think.

Like I said though, we'll see.  I don't really see much in the way of deciding factors yet so it could go either way, flop or success.



kirby007 on 18 October 2007

not really imm larger userbase means more potential costumers



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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Christopher_G2 on 18 October 2007

No mention of DQIV remake. It could be interesting what sell more between that and the FFIV remake. It wouldn't surprise me if both broke a million just in this year.

They seem to think that WiiFit will do better than Mario Galaxy. I have to agree, for Japan atleast. People saying it's overestimated don't understand the Japanese market. However I have to wondar if Wii Fit is going to sell that much right away, or if it's more the ultra leggy kind of thing like Brain Age. In any case I see absolutely no chance Wii Fit flops, Japan will embrace it heavily.