so ps3 out sells 360 next year?

I highly doubt it. The PS3s main competition is and has always been the Wii (with regards to sales, not games). The recent price cut for the Wii will erode PS3 sales, and come Holidays, with bad economy, people will rather buy something that is sub $200. I really doubt holiday sales will be as good as last year. High unemployement, longer recession, less spending, travelling, etc. Selling 5.5 million units in 3 months is nearly impossible. The Wii may not even sell that much and we all know the Wii will sell the most this holdiays again.

i see a near possibility. This coming holiday season is the period where things can turn out to be so massive and 30+ is a sure shot. Or else still the very probable numbers will be btn 28-29.

You know, after reviewing your analysis, it doesn't seem implausible. I'm probably just so used to the ps3 doing poorly that this seems unheard of. Howver, I have to admit that there's a good chance you may be right. I'm not 100% on your prediction though because it is still possible that the ps3 would be short of  the 360's last holiday season because most HD gamers already chose 360/$200 is still cheaper than $300

+5,m in 12 weeks..?

Looks at sig

very possible.

Yeah, it probably will.  And SF, you left out the week ending September 28th, 2008 in your calculations.

From the 28th of September, 2008, to the 3rd of January, 2009, the PS3 and 360 sold the following amounts:

The PS3 would have to sell 400k less units from now until the end of the year as the 360 did last year to reach 30 million - 5.45 million.  It's certainly possible.

The 360 dropped to $199 on September 5th of last year.  The following graph shows the 360's sales from the surrounding timeframe:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39677&end=39747

As you can see, the 360 didn't have near the spike the ps3 did following the price cut, nor did it have as sustained weekly sales. It took until the week ending 10/26/08 for the 360 to even top 200k during one week.  The ps3 obviously has far more momentum from its price cut compared to the 360 last year, and it should outperform the 360 from last year over the holidays.  That's not even taking things like Final Fantasy XIII into the equation.

It is highly probable that the ps3 will top 30 million before the year is out.

The ps3 broke 400k for four weeks straight in December of last year.  Over the same period, the 360 was selling 600-800k a week.

You guys really underestimate the power of the holidays.

it'll be a close one, but you provide some pretty good facts!