The risk is that it will be at least 10,000,001.

But if you want a final date... 27 November 2076.

If its not reached 10,000,001 copies sold by then, my prediction failed

Carl2291 said: The risk is that it will be at least 10,000,001. But if you want a final date... 27 November 2076. If its not reached 10,000,001 copies sold by then, my prediction failed

No, YOU failed.

It's ok with me if you don't want (or don't dare) make a prediction, but in that case don't bookmark mine.

I made the prediction that it would go above 10M

So, everyone who didn't give a date failed? lol

Carl2291 said: I made the prediction that it would go above 10M So, everyone who didn't give a date failed? lol

Yes, a valid prediction comes with a date. But whatever... you don't seem to have the balls and I won't ask you for a date because you will give me a coward one like 2014! So in the end yes, Respect -1

atma998 - so you do know, when GT5 will stop selling? Because we speak about LTD sales.
And the question is, will GT5 pass 10 or 15 mln. LTD sales. It`s not even prediction, because it`s pointless to predict something what will happen after 5-7 years. It`s more like people expectation and why they think so.

Anyway, both of you in recent posts are giving no value to this thread.

1) GT5P is over 4 mln. on official GT site. VGC don`t track online sales.

2) There is more competition for Halo 3 - CoD4:MW, KZ2, CoD4:MW2, Bioshock 2 and other. You are ignoring HUGE Halo and GT fanbase.

3) As i said before, i expect PS3 to sell atleast 60 mln. LTD. Your 10% of attach rate for the first GT game this gen look biased.

@ZorroX

you didnt read my first post did you?

That's a nice example let me use another one

GT3 couldn't reach 15m in the almighty massive software seller PS2 with 140m of userbase. Why will GT5 be able to do that?

Percentages are as useful as attach rate in this kind of situations, GT3 got like 10% of the PS2. What you said about the % is a poor try to back up in the comment above it.

What make you think that it got more popular? Saying that prologue sold over 4 mln copies ain't exactly a good thing (and I want a source for that claim), by now most "hardcore" GT fans already have Prologue, what makes you think that 9m more people will get GT5? GT depends a lot of the casual audience and guess what, casual audience aint exactly the PS audience this generation.

Since you like to use Halo as example, ODST just sold 2.2 million in 1 week so it's practically a given that it'll outsell Prologue, If GT is that huge shouldn't Prologue sell better than ODST?

No. I understand you are excited for the release, however you cannot and should not compare Halo 2 to GT5. And that's not even a knock towards the PS3. It's a knock towards racing games. They do not have the same kind of mass appeal that FPS games do.

I'm going to say it right now, GT5 could get a perfect ten Meta-critic score and still not sell 10-15 million. It's not about the game at all. 

But back to your point. The user base. How do you propose that this one game performs miles and miles above ANY other game released on the PS3 so far? The reason why Prologue sold so well is as follows (and it sold 3.14 million copies FYI) 

1. It's a budget title that previews a very popular game. 

And that's it. 

Look, these sales predictions are just plain absurd and its not fair to say that I or anyone else are PS3 bashers for thinking it. But when it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, its a game that'll sell probably in the 6-8 range LTD. 

Falcon095 - Because GT5 will be a better game, than GT3? Online mode alone will draw many new gamers.
Well, you don`t know, what attach rate was of PS2, when GT3 reached 10 mln.? Neither do i. But i expect it to be very high on PS3 for GT5. Not to mention, that GT4 was released later.

4 mln. was posted on n4g. You do undertsand, that hardcore GT fan will get full GT5 blu-ray disc version for PS3? It`s not about money, it`s about having GT5.
And casual audience, i see a lot of people lately, which are not in racing game, after seeing those videos are willing to try GT5.
Also, it`s not like 140 mln. PS2 userabse moved on Wii?

First of all, Halo 3 is already released and sold over 10 mln., that means, that expansion pack is getting that 10 mln. userbase.
While, there are a lot of people, which still haven`t got GT5P, but will get GT5.


dorbin2009 - racing games have mass appeal on PS3, come on, a Prologue sold 4 mln.!
With massive ad campaign, like now Sony is doing for Uncharted 2 i see GT5 selling a lot. Well, we should wait for Uncharted 2 sales maybe, to see how good Sony marketing is working. But overall, with graphics, which GT5 has, those ads will just make casual people buy PS3 for GT5 alone.

You forget about digital download, GT5P is around 4 mln. now -> http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html .
Because it is the BIGGEST PlayStation franchise, that Sony ever had.

You really underestimating GT selling power, just because other great PS3 games haven`t sold millions.
However, you forgetting about MGS4, which sold around 5 mln. according to Konami.
Not many PS3 games are able to sell that much, but games with big fanbase can.
Well, time will show. Maybe already after FFXIII sales in Japan you people will reconsider your expectations. :)

over judging by GTs history.