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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

Nintendogamer on 27 September 2009

The wii pirce cut has done some affect, wii is top of the charts on amazon.com.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

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FinalEvangelion on 27 September 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
What makes you think that FF13 will sell 1.6 million in its first week, when Famitsu says it won't even sell that in its lifetime?

Famitsu underestimated ToV and other games quite a bit.  They seem to use conservative estimates.



"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY."  --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials 

 

Conservatives:  Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.

 

daveJ on 27 September 2009

Wii will easily reach it first, due to its pricecut, I predict when it happens it will be about

wii 10million
ps3 4.6miilion

Without the wii pricecut Ild say it would of been ps3 first
ps3 5 million
wii 9.6 million



All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ said: True the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

ZorroX on 27 September 2009
Gearbox said:
ioi said:

Wii will reach 10m before PS3 reaches 5m. We're probably looking at 30k vs 15k this week in Japan but from next week onwards (with the exception of FFXIII release week) Wii should be ahead on a weekly basis and will therefore sell-through 1.5m quicker, expecially over the holidays where Wii sales should be probably twice PS3 sales.

ioi I disagree, unless the wii price drop boosts demand i see there sales dropping the entire year (aside for bumps from good games)

like look at how the wii sales have been going down liek crazy year over year http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=------&weeks=156&weekly=1 

i agree that the will will outsell the ps3 weekly yes (not by much) but I think that christmas time will be dominated by the ps3.  

Let me see, if i got the Wii trend in Japan right:

Average weekly 2007 sales -> 60-70k. Average Christmas 2007 sales -> 170-220k

Average weekly 2008 sales -> 40-50k. Average Christmas 2008 sales -> 100-150k

Average weekly 2009 sales -> 15-25k. Average Christmas 2009 sales -> ????????

Does everyone see this or it`s only me?

Probably, some people here have same faith in NSMB, just like me in FFXIII or maybe even more.
But again, PS3 was hardly a competitor last year at 40k yen and without Huge games.
Now it`s another story. I think, if PS3 was able to sell 150k during slim release and pricecut, it will be able to sell 250k during Christmas and FFXIII release. PS3 was able to sell a lot during RE5 and FFXIII demo releases even at 40k price, now situation is much better -> Price+Game+Christmas.



FinalEvangelion on 27 September 2009

For an explanation of my earlier post of FF13 first week sales, I took an average of first week sales to average install base of PS1 and PS2 at the time FF7 and FF10 released...

Final Fantasy VII Japanese first week #s

PS1 Hardware - 5.2 million / 2.03 million software


Final Fantasy 10 Japanese first week #s

PS2 Hardware - 5.1 million / 1.91 million software

Average = 37.9% of the hardware attach rate first week

4 million PS3 (at time of FF13 release projected) * 37.9% hardware = 1.52 million FF13 software first week


That would be 1.5 million. However, I also think that it will be slightly higher than 4 million at FF13 launch for PS3 ISB and the attach rate will be a little higher because more probably have a PS3 for FF13 specifically this generation.

So I think 1.6 million should be pretty easy. I always do remember everyone saying MGS4 would only do 250-300k first week in Japan, but then ended up doing 475k :)


If that makes me a Sony fanboy, so be it.



"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY."  --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials 

 

Conservatives:  Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.

 

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Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009
FinalEvangelion said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
What makes you think that FF13 will sell 1.6 million in its first week, when Famitsu says it won't even sell that in its lifetime?

Famitsu underestimated ToV and other games quite a bit.  They seem to use conservative estimates.


  Most games they've been very accurate, and they already know about Final Fantasy's historical sales, so they're 1.5 million estimate probably takes it into consideration



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

FinalEvangelion on 27 September 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
FinalEvangelion said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
What makes you think that FF13 will sell 1.6 million in its first week, when Famitsu says it won't even sell that in its lifetime?

Famitsu underestimated ToV and other games quite a bit.  They seem to use conservative estimates.


  Most games they've been very accurate, and they already know about Final Fantasy's historical sales, so they're 1.5 million estimate probably takes it into consideration

I guess we will see how it turns out come Dec. 17th week.  I made a new thread about this topic.



"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY."  --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials 

 

Conservatives:  Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.

 

Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009
ZorroX said:
Gearbox said:
ioi said:

Wii will reach 10m before PS3 reaches 5m. We're probably looking at 30k vs 15k this week in Japan but from next week onwards (with the exception of FFXIII release week) Wii should be ahead on a weekly basis and will therefore sell-through 1.5m quicker, expecially over the holidays where Wii sales should be probably twice PS3 sales.

ioi I disagree, unless the wii price drop boosts demand i see there sales dropping the entire year (aside for bumps from good games)

like look at how the wii sales have been going down liek crazy year over year http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=Japan&cons2=PS3®2=Japan&cons3=X360®3=------&weeks=156&weekly=1 

i agree that the will will outsell the ps3 weekly yes (not by much) but I think that christmas time will be dominated by the ps3.

Let me see, if i got the Wii trend in Japan right:

Average weekly 2007 sales -> 60-70k. Average Christmas 2007 sales -> 170-220k

Average weekly 2008 sales -> 40-50k. Average Christmas 2008 sales -> 100-150k

Average weekly 2009 sales -> 15-25k. Average Christmas 2009 sales -> ????????

Does everyone see this or it`s only me?

Probably, some people here have same faith in NSMB, just like me in FFXIII or maybe even more.
But again, PS3 was hardly a competitor last year at 40k yen and without Huge games.
Now it`s another story. I think, if PS3 was able to sell 150k during slim release and pricecut, it will be able to sell 250k during Christmas and FFXIII release. PS3 was able to sell a lot during RE5 and FFXIII demo releases even at 40k price, now situation is much better -> Price+Game+Christmas.


  Your analysis of the trend is ignoring software, first off you're assuming that FF13 will be able to push it into the 250K range, which is unlikely, the Slim launched with Gundam in Japan and did 150K, So 250K with FF13 is unlikely.

Wii's lineup this year is stronger than its lineup in 2008, and in 2007 Wii fit was in short supply in Japan, so Wii will be able to push more Hardware than the PS3 over the holiday.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Gearbox on 27 September 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
Gearbox said:
ioi said:

Wii will reach 10m before PS3 reaches 5m. We're probably looking at 30k vs 15k this week in Japan but from next week onwards (with the exception of FFXIII release week) Wii should be ahead on a weekly basis and will therefore sell-through 1.5m quicker, expecially over the holidays where Wii sales should be probably twice PS3 sales.

ioi I disagree, unless the wii price drop boosts demand i see there sales dropping the entire year (aside for bumps from good games)

like look at how the wii sales have been going down liek crazy year over year http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=Japan&cons2=PS3®2=Japan&cons3=X360®3=------&weeks=156&weekly=1 

i agree that the will will outsell the ps3 weekly yes (not by much) but I think that christmas time will be dominated by the ps3.

Let me see, if i got the Wii trend in Japan right:

Average weekly 2007 sales -> 60-70k. Average Christmas 2007 sales -> 170-220k

Average weekly 2008 sales -> 40-50k. Average Christmas 2008 sales -> 100-150k

Average weekly 2009 sales -> 15-25k. Average Christmas 2009 sales -> ????????

Does everyone see this or it`s only me?

Probably, some people here have same faith in NSMB, just like me in FFXIII or maybe even more.
But again, PS3 was hardly a competitor last year at 40k yen and without Huge games.
Now it`s another story. I think, if PS3 was able to sell 150k during slim release and pricecut, it will be able to sell 250k during Christmas and FFXIII release. PS3 was able to sell a lot during RE5 and FFXIII demo releases even at 40k price, now situation is much better -> Price+Game+Christmas.


  Your analysis of the trend is ignoring software, first off you're assuming that FF13 will be able to push it into the 250K range, which is unlikely, the Slim launched with Gundam in Japan and did 150K, So 250K with FF13 is unlikely.

Wii's lineup this year is stronger than its lineup in 2008, and in 2007 Wii fit was in short supply in Japan, so Wii will be able to push more Hardware than the PS3 over the holiday.

its a trend that lasts since launch not just the last year... 

 it went down from 60-70k to 40-50k then 15-25k (no software) so now that there is sofware i think the sales will stay at the 100-150k range liek last year but the ps3 will skyrocket past that. 

im pretty sure the ff13 release and bundle will move 200k+ consoles in that week alone 



Avinash_Tyagi on 27 September 2009
Gearbox said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
Gearbox said:
ioi said:

Wii will reach 10m before PS3 reaches 5m. We're probably looking at 30k vs 15k this week in Japan but from next week onwards (with the exception of FFXIII release week) Wii should be ahead on a weekly basis and will therefore sell-through 1.5m quicker, expecially over the holidays where Wii sales should be probably twice PS3 sales.

ioi I disagree, unless the wii price drop boosts demand i see there sales dropping the entire year (aside for bumps from good games)

like look at how the wii sales have been going down liek crazy year over year http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=Japan&cons2=PS3®2=Japan&cons3=X360®3=------&weeks=156&weekly=1 

i agree that the will will outsell the ps3 weekly yes (not by much) but I think that christmas time will be dominated by the ps3.

Let me see, if i got the Wii trend in Japan right:

Average weekly 2007 sales -> 60-70k. Average Christmas 2007 sales -> 170-220k

Average weekly 2008 sales -> 40-50k. Average Christmas 2008 sales -> 100-150k

Average weekly 2009 sales -> 15-25k. Average Christmas 2009 sales -> ????????

Does everyone see this or it`s only me?

Probably, some people here have same faith in NSMB, just like me in FFXIII or maybe even more.
But again, PS3 was hardly a competitor last year at 40k yen and without Huge games.
Now it`s another story. I think, if PS3 was able to sell 150k during slim release and pricecut, it will be able to sell 250k during Christmas and FFXIII release. PS3 was able to sell a lot during RE5 and FFXIII demo releases even at 40k price, now situation is much better -> Price+Game+Christmas.


  Your analysis of the trend is ignoring software, first off you're assuming that FF13 will be able to push it into the 250K range, which is unlikely, the Slim launched with Gundam in Japan and did 150K, So 250K with FF13 is unlikely.

Wii's lineup this year is stronger than its lineup in 2008, and in 2007 Wii fit was in short supply in Japan, so Wii will be able to push more Hardware than the PS3 over the holiday.

its a trend that lasts since launch not just the last year... 

 it went down from 60-70k to 40-50k then 15-25k (no software) so now that there is sofware i think the sales will stay at the 100-150k range liek last year but the ps3 will skyrocket past that. 

im pretty sure the ff13 release and bundle will move 200k+ consoles in that week alone


  Except the PS3 has an even lower trend than the Wii though its sales have fallen to levels that the Wii has never, so what do you have to support that it will skyrocket past the Wii?  One week with a new SKU, a price cut and a top selling franchise in japan does not make a trend. Sorry, but the Wii has passed 150K many times in its past, PS3 only once, in fact its only passed 100K once.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)