Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Gearbox said:

Avinash_Tyagi said:

ZorroX said:

Gearbox said:

ioi said:

Wii will reach 10m before PS3 reaches 5m. We're probably looking at 30k vs 15k this week in Japan but from next week onwards (with the exception of FFXIII release week) Wii should be ahead on a weekly basis and will therefore sell-through 1.5m quicker, expecially over the holidays where Wii sales should be probably twice PS3 sales.

ioi I disagree, unless the wii price drop boosts demand i see there sales dropping the entire year (aside for bumps from good games)

like look at how the wii sales have been going down liek crazy year over year http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=Japan&cons2=PS3®2=Japan&cons3=X360®3=------&weeks=156&weekly=1 

i agree that the will will outsell the ps3 weekly yes (not by much) but I think that christmas time will be dominated by the ps3.

Let me see, if i got the Wii trend in Japan right:

Average weekly 2007 sales -> 60-70k. Average Christmas 2007 sales -> 170-220k

Average weekly 2008 sales -> 40-50k. Average Christmas 2008 sales -> 100-150k

Average weekly 2009 sales -> 15-25k. Average Christmas 2009 sales -> ????????

Does everyone see this or it`s only me?

Probably, some people here have same faith in NSMB, just like me in FFXIII or maybe even more.
But again, PS3 was hardly a competitor last year at 40k yen and without Huge games.
Now it`s another story. I think, if PS3 was able to sell 150k during slim release and pricecut, it will be able to sell 250k during Christmas and FFXIII release. PS3 was able to sell a lot during RE5 and FFXIII demo releases even at 40k price, now situation is much better -> Price+Game+Christmas.

  Your analysis of the trend is ignoring software, first off you're assuming that FF13 will be able to push it into the 250K range, which is unlikely, the Slim launched with Gundam in Japan and did 150K, So 250K with FF13 is unlikely.

Wii's lineup this year is stronger than its lineup in 2008, and in 2007 Wii fit was in short supply in Japan, so Wii will be able to push more Hardware than the PS3 over the holiday.

its a trend that lasts since launch not just the last year... 

 it went down from 60-70k to 40-50k then 15-25k (no software) so now that there is sofware i think the sales will stay at the 100-150k range liek last year but the ps3 will skyrocket past that. 

im pretty sure the ff13 release and bundle will move 200k+ consoles in that week alone

  Except the PS3 has an even lower trend than the Wii though its sales have fallen to levels that the Wii has never, so what do you have to support that it will skyrocket past the Wii?  One week with a new SKU, a price cut and a top selling franchise in japan does not make a trend. Sorry, but the Wii has passed 150K many times in its past, PS3 only once, in fact its only passed 100K once.