Wii

1) Super Robot Wars, Samurai Warriors - same stuff has PS3. Those Dynasty warriors and Gundams selling a lot on PS3.
MH3 was more like exception, and DQX probably coming in 2011 or 2012. Since FFXIIIv and FFXIV coming in near future.
I see Yakuza 4, new WKC for PS3. And many PS360 multipaltform(like RE5, SF4, LP2) games, which have more effect on PS3 sales in Japan.
I really don`t see Wii as having as much 3rd party support with big budget titles, like PS3 has(mostly thanks to x360) in Japan.

2) The week, when Wii will cost 19,900 yen. Next i supose? It`s not like 5k is such big pricecut. We will see soon.

3) I looked at sales - http://www.vgchartz.com/jweekly.php?date=39992 what effect? MH3 had effect on sales with 90k.

4) SMB will probably sell more in Japan, but FFXIII is a popular hardcore game, which will drive a lot of new owners during first 2-3 months, rather than in long term. And we speak, about who will reach their goal first, so in long term NSMB will bring more owners, but in short term FFXIII is a winner.

PS3

1) PS3 was at 55k in Famitsu this week. Usually, spike after games in Japan drops very fast, and PS3 sold 150k - 60k - 55k, it should have stabilized now,
so i expect PS3 to stay in 40-50k range.

2) Yet, FFXIII wil be first 1-2 mln. seller on PS3 in Japan. Those, games you named, are some relatively big francise. Well, in this case FFXIII is first Huge game on PS3 in Japan.
This proves, that there are much more people left, which will get PS3 for some huge titles, rather than on Wii, which already bought it for SMG, SSBB, MK, Zelda, Wii Fit, Wii Sport.

4) People were waiting for pricecut, yet PS3 had spikes during RE5 and FFXIII demo releases.
Now the price is right, and we will see how is strong PS brand is still in Japan. 150k in First week is really good result.

5) Wii will have strong competition this year from PS3 for the first time.
First time huge game on PS3.
First time really affordable price.

What Wii has for first time this year? :)

I'd like to point out that the one Tales title the Wii received was a spinoff and not the 'mothership' title that Graces is. As such, I expect ToG to move a lot more units - both hardware and software.

O WOW. Sales will at least remain somewhat consistent with one decent game releasing every week for the Wii.

October 1-15 there are two good games (not necesarrily saleswise) and one big game (WF+).

November 5-26 there are two big games and 3 I am unsure of, but should do well. Having NSMB Wii somewhere in there will get them all up.

Tales of Graces in December will hold that month down for about 2 weeks (week of release and after).

Software complements hardware, and everything has fallen into place for the Wii to own this holiday in Japan. 13 has never been such a lucky number. Those 13 titles are something I would be confident in backing me up. And I threw FMA in there.

Can't believe anyone is still arguing with ioi. They are obviously incapable of understanding the voice of reason and logic.

I guess New SMB will not move as much hardware as FF 13 simply because Super Mario Fans bought a Wii while a lot of Final Fantasy Fans don`t. In the FF Fan Forums a lot of people are waiting just for that game.

Saturation is another point why the Wii wont start sell significantly more than the PS3.

I think PS3 will at least reach the goal in the same time Wii does but maybe quicker.

bookmarked, sorry ioi I don't see this happening in Japan.

ioi I disagree, unless the wii price drop boosts demand i see there sales dropping the entire year (aside for bumps from good games)

like look at how the wii sales have been going down liek crazy year over year http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=------&weeks=156&weekly=1 

i agree that the will will outsell the ps3 weekly yes (not by much) but I think that christmas time will be dominated by the ps3.  

It's funny how some of you guys look at the trends but forget to look at the context.

Too hard for me to tell...should be close.  Wii is getting the pricecut, but PS3 is getting FFXIII.  I'll have to unfortunately pick the Wii though.  

If GT5 was coming out this year, I'd pick the PS3, but since it's not until March of next year, I have to go with the Wii now.

I think there will be some sleepers for the ps3 though...Tekken 6 I think will do really well.  And even Bayonetta might do well.  Still don't think it will be enough though.

Just going by FF7 and FF10 ratios when they were released, I expect FF13 to do 1.6 million first week if there are 4 million PS3s by it's release (almost guaranteed at this point). I also think some people are giving ToV too much credit for the high PS3 numbers last week. There were no bundles released with the game and it's also not the first jRPG to release on the console. There has been one moderate size one - WKC, and several small ones before. I'm going to guess the PS3 sales in Japan will be around 40k this week when all said and done.

Overall, I think the Wii will get there first, but not by as much as people think.