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Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

Ail on 07 October 2009
Viper1 said:
Ail said:
I'm still not convinced that NSMB Wii will boost sales that much over the short term.

Granted it wasn't holydays but Wii sales didn't spike that much when Mario kart Wii was released ( there was a notable hardware boost but it was spread over several months, maybe a whole year).

Granted over the long term the boost will be significant but the PS3 might be able to sneak to 5 millions before that....

Didn't spike much?  It pushed Wii to double the combined total of PS3/X360 for that week (GTAIV week mind you) and more than doubled the Wii's previous weekly average.

 

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39509&end=39656

This whole thread is about Japan.

 

Week of April 6th 2008 : 45354 Wii sold

Week of April 13th 2008 ( MK Wii release Week) : 48196 Wii sold....

I rest my case. You might want to read what a thread is about before jumping in next time ....



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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Viper1 on 07 October 2009

My bad. I completely forgot it was Japanese centric for a moment.

However there was no hardware boost because there was no increase in hardware volume for sale. They were also being held for Golden Week which was from Apr 29 to May 5. The biggest release during that period was Link's Crossbow Training but hardware went up from mid 40's to almost 70k.

MKWii opened to 580k in Japan and such little hardware impact wouldn't make sense unless the volumes were constrained. Even when selling to an already established fan base (like MKWii was) that small of a boost is unheard of. Other big titles selling to already established fan bases have typically still increased hardware pretty decently.

There is one other difference between MKWii and NSMB Wii. I've not known many of my gaming peers that were interested in MKWii that didn't already own a Wii but a lot of my non-Wii owning counterparts are definitely interested in the first 2D side scrolling Mario game on a home console in 14 years.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Ail on 07 October 2009
Viper1 said:
My bad. I completely forgot it was Japanese centric for a moment.

However there was no hardware boost because there was no increase in hardware volume for sale. They were also being held for Golden Week which was from Apr 29 to May 5. The biggest release during that period was Link's Crossbow Training but hardware went up from mid 40's to almost 70k.

MKWii opened to 580k in Japan and such little hardware impact wouldn't make sense unless the volumes were constrained. Even when selling to an already established fan base (like MKWii was) that small of a boost is unheard of. Other big titles selling to already established fan bases have typically still increased hardware pretty decently.

There is one other difference between MKWii and NSMB Wii. I've not known many of my gaming peers that were interested in MKWii that didn't already own a Wii but a lot of my non-Wii owning counterparts are definitely interested in the first 2D side scrolling Mario game on a home console in 14 years.

I believe the wii hardware shortage in Japan stopped around january/february 2008 so shortages are not the reason.

Wii sales went up during Golden week because well, it was golden week( harware sales go up every year during that week).......

Such a boost in not that unheard of. The week Wii Sport Resorts was released in Japan, Wii sales went up by 4k.....

 

It will provide a boost, but it will be more subtile and won't be a a MGS4 or FFXIII boost ( huge sales for 3 weeks and then sales back to normal).

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

binary solo on 07 October 2009
ioi said:

Yes, I expect Wii to be higher next week. If you remember my analysis when PS3 slim launched, I compared the difference between a price drop, a new model launch and a new model+price drop:

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5126

Wii will (and already is in America / Europe) following the pattern of the first graph - sales will stay flat or even rise as more consumers become aware of the price drop. Anyone comparing PS3 slim launch to the recent Wii price cut is totally missing the fundamental differences between the two. As I described in that article, the PS3 slim launch follows the pattern of the third graph (and I've been pretty much spot on so far) - which is a combination of a new product launch and a price cut whereas in the case of Wii you are seeing just a price cut.

So yes, whereas PS3 sales will continue to fall away to maybe ~25k weekly (with bumps for major games / holidays), Wii should actually rise slightly and settle at this current rate for the rest of the year (with bumps for big games / holidays).

While a price cut would typically follow the pattern of the first graph the exact shape of the first graph will be influenced by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, the size of the price drop and the degree to which the current price is a barrier to consumer purchasing.

In the case of the Wii price cut I think those two factors work against the Wii having a substantial peak or sustained lift in sales (i.e. I seriously doubt Wii sales will continue to rise week on week for 9 weeks like the "typical" graph illustrates, and once the peak is reached, if it weren't for the holiday timing, the sales would drop back to a baseline sooner). The current price of the Wii really wasn't a barrier to consumer purchasing (it sold 53 million units (8.55 million in Japan) at that price after all), and the price drop is not monumental in proportions. I'd be predicting Wii to hit its pricecut peak by the end of October at the latest, but at about that time the normal holiday buying spree will kick in. So instead of starting to decline the sales will lift further. It won't be possible to really assess the longer term effect of Wii pricecut until after the holiday buying spree. The Wii sales graph will be an initial increase, a brief levelling off or perhaps a slight dip, then the holiday spike comes along.



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trestres on 07 October 2009

I think that Wii sales will go down until November, since this month is totally empty. There's nothing coming out for the Wii that could lift or sustain sales.



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JTurner82 on 07 October 2009

I really don't see much in the way of titles to boost the Wii in October, but November is a different story altogether.



Manos on 08 October 2009
ioi said:

Some VERY rough projections - let's see how close I get:


 Wii PS3
27-Sep-09       18,000    8,554,862       30,000  3,623,866
04-Oct-09       45,000    8,599,862       30,000  3,653,866
11-Oct-09       41,500    8,641,362       28,000  3,681,866
18-Oct-09       38,500    8,679,862       25,000  3,706,866
25-Oct-09       36,000    8,715,862       23,000  3,729,866
01-Nov-09       45,000    8,760,862       31,000  3,760,866
08-Nov-09       42,500    8,803,362       27,500  3,788,366
15-Nov-09       55,000    8,858,362       31,000  3,819,366
22-Nov-09     145,000    9,003,362       31,000  3,850,366
29-Nov-09     105,000    9,108,362       38,500  3,888,866
06-Dec-09       95,000    9,203,362       49,500  3,938,366
13-Dec-09     110,000    9,313,362       75,000  4,013,366
20-Dec-09     180,000    9,493,362     175,000  4,188,366
27-Dec-09     215,000    9,708,362     125,000  4,313,366
03-Jan-10     165,000    9,873,362     110,000  4,423,366
10-Jan-10       65,000    9,938,362       47,500  4,470,866
17-Jan-10       50,000    9,988,362       40,000  4,510,866
24-Jan-10       40,000  10,028,362       36,500  4,547,366
31-Jan-10       35,000  10,063,362       33,250  4,580,616

So how is it looking for your prediction? A bit high on wii and low on ps3, maybe?



kopstudent89 on 08 October 2009

I think both of u need to adjust the wii expectations a bit since SMW3 is bein moved to december 3rd along with NSMB(week of dec 6th)



ZorroX on 08 October 2009

Week 41 (08/10/09)
[WII] Valhalla Knights: Eldar Saga (Marvelous Entertainment)
[WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii: Enka Kayoukyouku Hen / Duet Kyokuhen (Hudson)
[PS3] White Knight Chronicles: EX Edition (SCE)

Week 42 (15/10/09)
[WII] Okami (Capcom)
[PS3] Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (SCE)
[PS3] UFC 2009 Undisputed (THQ)
[PS3] NBA 2K10 (2K Sports)
[PS3] NHL 2K10 (2K Sports)

Week 43 (22/10/09)
[WII] FIFA 10: World Class Soccer (Electronic Arts Victor)
[WII] Sukeban Shachou Rena Wii (Jorudan)
[PS3] FIFA 10: World Class Soccer (Electronic Arts Victor)

Week 44 (29/10/09)
[WII] Sin and Punishment 2 (Nintendo)
[WII] Super Robot Wars Neo (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Wacky World of Sports (Sega)
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai)
[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega)
[PS3] Way of the Samurai 3: Plus (PlayStation 3 the Best) (Spike)

Week 45 (05/11/09)
[WII] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo)
[WII] Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3 (Welcome Price 3800) (Namco Bandai)
[WII] One Piece: Unlimited Adventure (Welcome Price 3800) (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Aim!! Fishing Master (Hudson the Best) (Hudson)
[PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami)
[PS3] Infamous (SCE)
[PS3] 3D Dot Game Heroes (From Software)
[PS3] Colin McRae: Dirt 2 (Codemasters)
[PS3] NBA Live 10 (Electronic Arts Victor)

Week 46 (12/11/09)
[WII] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers (Square Enix)
[PS3] Dragon Ball: Raging Blast (Namco Bandai)
[PS3] Need for Speed: Shift (Electronic Arts Victor)
[PS3] Shaun White Snowboarding (Ubi the Best) (Ubisoft)

Week 47 (19/11/09)
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii: Dodon to Ni-Dai-Me (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Family Challenge Wii (Konami)
[WII] Metal Fight Beyblade: Gachinko Stadium (Hudson)
[WII] Calling (Hudson)
[WII] Lost in Blue Wii (Konami the Best) (Konami)
[PS3] Ratchet & Clank Future: A Crack in Time (SCE)

Week 48 (26/11/09)
[WII] Naruto: Shippuden Ryujinki (Takara Tomy)
[WII] Puyo Puyo 7 (Sega)
[WII] Monotaro Railway 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Hudson)
[WII] Rabbids Go Home (Ubisoft)
[WII] SimAnimals Africa (Electronic Arts Victor)
[PS3] Mercenaries 2: World in Flames (EA Best Hits) (Electronic Arts Victor)
[PS3] Mirror's Edge (EA Best Hits) (Electronic Arts Victor)

Week 49 (03/12/09 - 05/12/09)
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo)
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei)
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes W (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Isometric & Karate Exercise: Wii de Kotsuban Fitness (IE Institute)
[WII] Takumi Restaurant wa Daihanjou! (Dorart)
[WII] Up (THQ)
[WII] Pokemon Park Wii: Picachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.)
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft)
[PS3] Yakuza 3 (PlayStation 3 the Best) (Sega)

Week 50 (10/12/09)
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Family Trainer 2 (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Family Trainer 1 & 2 (Namco Bandai)
[WII] Fullmetal Alchemist: Daughter of the Dusk (Square Enix)
[WII] Battle Arena Toshinden (Takara Tomy)
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square Enix)
[PS3] Cross Edge (CH Selection) (Compile Heart)

Week 51 (17/12/09)
[WII] Need for Speed: Nitro (Electronic Arts Victor)
[WII] F1 2009 (Codemasters)
[WII] NHK Red White Quiz Match
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix)

Indeed, some changes would be needed. Though, that was VERY rough projections.
Also Famitsu:
151k - 57k - 55k - 50k - 37k
MC:
151k -  55k - 51k - 40k - ?
If MC also has around 35-40k this week, then probably PS3 sales have stabilized at this point.



ViolentPhlegm on 09 October 2009

Okay, I'm going to take a crack at keeping track of this race.  I'll also keep tabs on the VERY rough projections made by ioi and ZorroX.  The updates may not be timely (or weekly for that matter) so please don't get bent out of shape if it takes me a while.  (If someone else has more time for this, I'd gladly let them take over).  I'm also going to keep track of some yoy numbers for reference.  All numbers are VGChartz data and the "cumulative" numbers in the second chart are for the period covered by ioi's and ZorroX's VERY rough projections.

  Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M
Life to Date 8,582,408 3,679,141
Left to Target 1,417,592 1,320,859

 

  Wii Oct 3 Wii Cumulative PS3 Oct 3 PS3 Cumulative
Actual 32,981 45,396 36,663 82,093
ioi VERY rough (error) 45,000 (+36.4%) 63,000 (+38.8%) 30,000 (-18.2%) 60,000 (-26.9%)
ZorroX VERY rough (error) 45,000 (+36.4%) 63,000 (+38.8%) 47,000 (+28.2%) 89,000 (+8.4%)
Last year (yoy change) 25,691 (+28.4%) 51,874 (-12.5%) 7,400 (+395.4%) 15,770 (+420.6%)