Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

[binary solo]

ioi said:

Yes, I expect Wii to be higher next week. If you remember my analysis when PS3 slim launched, I compared the difference between a price drop, a new model launch and a new model+price drop:

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5126

Wii will (and already is in America / Europe) following the pattern of the first graph - sales will stay flat or even rise as more consumers become aware of the price drop. Anyone comparing PS3 slim launch to the recent Wii price cut is totally missing the fundamental differences between the two. As I described in that article, the PS3 slim launch follows the pattern of the third graph (and I've been pretty much spot on so far) - which is a combination of a new product launch and a price cut whereas in the case of Wii you are seeing just a price cut.

So yes, whereas PS3 sales will continue to fall away to maybe ~25k weekly (with bumps for major games / holidays), Wii should actually rise slightly and settle at this current rate for the rest of the year (with bumps for big games / holidays).

While a price cut would typically follow the pattern of the first graph the exact shape of the first graph will be influenced by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, the size of the price drop and the degree to which the current price is a barrier to consumer purchasing.

In the case of the Wii price cut I think those two factors work against the Wii having a substantial peak or sustained lift in sales (i.e. I seriously doubt Wii sales will continue to rise week on week for 9 weeks like the "typical" graph illustrates, and once the peak is reached, if it weren't for the holiday timing, the sales would drop back to a baseline sooner). The current price of the Wii really wasn't a barrier to consumer purchasing (it sold 53 million units (8.55 million in Japan) at that price after all), and the price drop is not monumental in proportions. I'd be predicting Wii to hit its pricecut peak by the end of October at the latest, but at about that time the normal holiday buying spree will kick in. So instead of starting to decline the sales will lift further. It won't be possible to really assess the longer term effect of Wii pricecut until after the holiday buying spree. The Wii sales graph will be an initial increase, a brief levelling off or perhaps a slight dip, then the holiday spike comes along.