My vote goes for the Wii

What software? What so special about those Wii games? Every PS3 game listed will pass 100k in Japan.

01st Oct 09 Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
01st Oct 09 Shin Sangoku Musou: MultiRaid Special
15th Oct 09 Uncharted: Ougontou to Kieta Sendan
29th Oct 09 Bayonetta
29th Oct 09 Tekken 6
05th Nov 09 3D Dot Game Heroes
12th Nov 09 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast
Nov-Dec 09 Resonance of Fate
Nov-Dec 09 Ratchet & Clank: A Crack in Time
03rd Dec 09 Assassin's Creed II
17th Dec 09 Final Fantasy XIII

VS

Oct 01 - Wii Fit Plus
Oct 08 - Valhalla Knights: Eldar Saga
Oct 15 - Okami
Ocr 29 - Super Robot Wars NEO, Sin & Punishment 2
Nov 05 - Mario & Sonic at the Winter Olympic Games
Nov 12 - Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers
Nov 19 - Samurai Warriors 3
Nov 26 - Puyo Puyo 7, Naruto Shippuuden Ryuuninnki
Nov ?? - New Super Mario Bros. Wii
Nov/ Dec ?? - Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles
Dec - Tales of Graces

PS3 lineup rivals Wii.
The Slim launch with Gundam VS Christmas boost and Huge Game.

PS3 price is by 10k yen lower, than last year, it is now slim and for the first time will get a Huge game.

  Are you kidding, lol, most of those Wii games will do far more sales than the PS3 games will in Japan, in fact with the exception of FF13, none of those PS3 games are likely to be hardware movers

my prediction is that the Wii will get there first

This is a joke right? PS3 already had "huge games," Wii has a price cut and you're pretending it's going to do nothing for the holidays and that PS3 list certainly doesn't rival the Wii one.

I mean, seriously, Uncharted? Assassin's Creed II? Ratchet & Clank? And then there are the unknown quantities like Bayonetta and 3D Dot Heroes. 3D Dot Heroes seems like a niche throwback at the most, you're actually putting these games up against the likes of Super Robot Wars, Samurai Warriors or even Tales? Even after a port of Vesperia did over 200k you think anything on that list besides FF13 can stand up to Tales of Graces? That game will probably do 500k+. It's definitely going to outperform Vesperia.

All I see on the PS3 list are a couple of western games and some sequels/games aiming at a market that is not underserved on that platform. Really FF13 is the only big hitter there, and Sony/SE have been pinching from that fanbase since the FF13 demo so these astronamical numebrs are unlikely and even if they did happen, they wouldn't last.

The Wii on the other hand has a lot of build up. All of these games are bringing in fanbases that had little reason to pick up a Wii beforehand, and this is not including the big shots like NSMB Wii and Wii Fit Plus. FFCC: The Crystal Bearers will bring in the FF crowd, Supr Robot Wars NEO will bring in the Robot Taisen crowd, Samurai Warriors 3 will bring in the Musou crowd, Tales of Graces will bring in the Tales crowd, etc. Yeah, FF13 is going to be huge and the FF crowd is a large one, but it's still picking from one pool whereas Nintendo is pulling from a lot of different fanbases. This is what Microsoft was always trying to do (and failed) when they kept buying all of those RPGs. It's spread out over a period of time. It's not coming from a finite fanbase. And it's for the fastest selling console, which experienced a price drop and will be going into holidays sales where it historically gets huge numbers.

PS3 doesn't stand a chance.

I say... Ps3 to 5 million first (momentum is in its favor). However, the Wii will reach 11 million before the PS3 reaches 6 million (due to some desired Wiileases.)

I suggest people start taking a stab at when the milestones will be reached, and not just which console will get there first.

It might be possible for Wii to reach the 10 million mark by the end of the year with its software lineup, but definitely by the end of February. PS3 will probably reach 5 million in March or April.

@Avinash: Reaching 10 million by year's end means a 73% increase over last year. Or put another way, this is equivalent to 250,000 for each of the 3 peak holiday weeks plus average weekly sales of 62,500 the rest of the time from here on in.

End of February can be done with the same holiday hump described above and average weekly sales of over 35,000 for the rest of the period.

Hmmm...

@ZorroX: The answer to your question is neither:  Not everyone sees it and it's not only you. ;)

@ViolentPhlegm - you are speaking to someone who has prediction of 80M wii sold by end of 2009 :) and something around 300-350 milion of Wii sold in 2015 :D