Wii 10 mln. or PS3 5 mln. in Japan. Who first?

[ClaudeLv250]

ZorroX said:

Avinash_Tyagi said:

Your analysis of the trend is ignoring software, first off you're assuming that FF13 will be able to push it into the 250K range, which is unlikely, the Slim launched with Gundam in Japan and did 150K, So 250K with FF13 is unlikely.

Wii's lineup this year is stronger than its lineup in 2008, and in 2007 Wii fit was in short supply in Japan, so Wii will be able to push more Hardware than the PS3 over the holiday.

What software? What so special about those Wii games? Every PS3 game listed will pass 100k in Japan.

01st Oct 09 Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
01st Oct 09 Shin Sangoku Musou: MultiRaid Special
15th Oct 09 Uncharted: Ougontou to Kieta Sendan
29th Oct 09 Bayonetta
29th Oct 09 Tekken 6
05th Nov 09 3D Dot Game Heroes
12th Nov 09 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast
Nov-Dec 09 Resonance of Fate
Nov-Dec 09 Ratchet & Clank: A Crack in Time
03rd Dec 09 Assassin's Creed II
17th Dec 09 Final Fantasy XIII

VS

Oct 01 - Wii Fit Plus
Oct 08 - Valhalla Knights: Eldar Saga
Oct 15 - Okami
Ocr 29 - Super Robot Wars NEO, Sin & Punishment 2
Nov 05 - Mario & Sonic at the Winter Olympic Games
Nov 12 - Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers
Nov 19 - Samurai Warriors 3
Nov 26 - Puyo Puyo 7, Naruto Shippuuden Ryuuninnki
Nov ?? - New Super Mario Bros. Wii
Nov/ Dec ?? - Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles
Dec - Tales of Graces

PS3 lineup rivals Wii.
The Slim launch with Gundam VS Christmas boost and Huge Game.

PS3 price is by 10k yen lower, than last year, it is now slim and for the first time will get a Huge game.

This is a joke right? PS3 already had "huge games," Wii has a price cut and you're pretending it's going to do nothing for the holidays and that PS3 list certainly doesn't rival the Wii one.

I mean, seriously, Uncharted? Assassin's Creed II? Ratchet & Clank? And then there are the unknown quantities like Bayonetta and 3D Dot Heroes. 3D Dot Heroes seems like a niche throwback at the most, you're actually putting these games up against the likes of Super Robot Wars, Samurai Warriors or even Tales? Even after a port of Vesperia did over 200k you think anything on that list besides FF13 can stand up to Tales of Graces? That game will probably do 500k+. It's definitely going to outperform Vesperia.

All I see on the PS3 list are a couple of western games and some sequels/games aiming at a market that is not underserved on that platform. Really FF13 is the only big hitter there, and Sony/SE have been pinching from that fanbase since the FF13 demo so these astronamical numebrs are unlikely and even if they did happen, they wouldn't last.

The Wii on the other hand has a lot of build up. All of these games are bringing in fanbases that had little reason to pick up a Wii beforehand, and this is not including the big shots like NSMB Wii and Wii Fit Plus. FFCC: The Crystal Bearers will bring in the FF crowd, Supr Robot Wars NEO will bring in the Robot Taisen crowd, Samurai Warriors 3 will bring in the Musou crowd, Tales of Graces will bring in the Tales crowd, etc. Yeah, FF13 is going to be huge and the FF crowd is a large one, but it's still picking from one pool whereas Nintendo is pulling from a lot of different fanbases. This is what Microsoft was always trying to do (and failed) when they kept buying all of those RPGs. It's spread out over a period of time. It's not coming from a finite fanbase. And it's for the fastest selling console, which experienced a price drop and will be going into holidays sales where it historically gets huge numbers.

PS3 doesn't stand a chance.