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Avinash_Tyagi said:

Your analysis of the trend is ignoring software, first off you're assuming that FF13 will be able to push it into the 250K range, which is unlikely, the Slim launched with Gundam in Japan and did 150K, So 250K with FF13 is unlikely.

Wii's lineup this year is stronger than its lineup in 2008, and in 2007 Wii fit was in short supply in Japan, so Wii will be able to push more Hardware than the PS3 over the holiday.

What software? What so special about those Wii games? Every PS3 game listed will pass 100k in Japan.

01st Oct 09 Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
01st Oct 09 Shin Sangoku Musou: MultiRaid Special
15th Oct 09 Uncharted: Ougontou to Kieta Sendan
29th Oct 09 Bayonetta
29th Oct 09 Tekken 6
05th Nov 09 3D Dot Game Heroes
12th Nov 09 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast
Nov-Dec 09 Resonance of Fate
Nov-Dec 09 Ratchet & Clank: A Crack in Time
03rd Dec 09 Assassin's Creed II
17th Dec 09 Final Fantasy XIII

VS

Oct 01 - Wii Fit Plus
Oct 08 - Valhalla Knights: Eldar Saga
Oct 15 - Okami
Ocr 29 - Super Robot Wars NEO, Sin & Punishment 2
Nov 05 - Mario & Sonic at the Winter Olympic Games
Nov 12 - Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers
Nov 19 - Samurai Warriors 3
Nov 26 - Puyo Puyo 7, Naruto Shippuuden Ryuuninnki
Nov ?? - New Super Mario Bros. Wii
Nov/ Dec ?? - Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles
Dec - Tales of Graces

PS3 lineup rivals Wii.
The Slim launch with Gundam VS Christmas boost and Huge Game.

PS3 price is by 10k yen lower, than last year, it is now slim and for the first time will get a Huge game.