idk why people are saying L4D2 isnt going to be a big game this holiday season

The end of 2009 WW: U2 > LFD2
The end of 2010 WW: LFD2 > U2
LifeTime WW: LFD2 > U2
LFD2 will have better legs...

Uncharted 2.

While the first one was bundled, there was only about 500k of bundling in the US and there was some sporadic bundling in others. L4D 2 might suffer because of the proximity to the first game. U2 will also get a sales boost because of the addition of co-op and online, the game is definitely making a larger jump than L4D

You're missing the point, its fair in the sense that both games will probably end up in the same selling range irregardless of the existence of bundles, first party deal, bargain etc...

The sale of past iteration has show that both game have a fighting chance of winning the battle with all the stipulation currently in place.

This isn't regarding the 'fairness' of the market and the various hooks both game comes with. Its simply an argument over the end result, A or B which will it be?

Perhaps 'fair' is the wrong word to you in this context, would you accept that this battle is at least 'competitive?' In that both games irregardless of the percieve advantage of Uncharted 2 has a chance of scoring the knock-out punch.

Or do you believe this is a fight that Left 4 Dead 2 simply cannot win?

My personal belief is that L4D2 will lose, but their are many good argument to debunk my guess in this thread alone (and you yourself provided some of them).

ill be the first to say that itll be an exact tie

I would say uncharted 2. I didn't even know L4D2 was coming out so soon.

I think we can expect a reasonable 2-2.5 million out of Left4Dead 2, with the first dying off closer to 3 million.

Sequels to games released in the same generation often perform poorer than their predecessors in sales, and the fact that Left4Dead 2 is coming so soon after the first will only inhibit L4D2's sales even further. For an example of this, look at the Ratchet & Clank series on the ps2.

Only sequels that are able to differentiate themselves from their predecessors in some major way will manage to outdo their former in sales. An example of this is Halo 2, who's online component helped it to achieve amazing success.

Uncharted 2 will have such differentiating components, in the form of online competitive and cooperative multiplayer. However, I think Uncharted 2's success will fall more at the hands of marketing.

The first Uncharted was woefully undermarketed. Compare it to Assassin's Creed. Both are linear, story driven third-person action games, yet Assassin's Creed managed to outsell Uncharted by almost a million units on the ps3, despite the widely held belief that Uncharted is the better game.

Sony needs to start marketing their games like Microsoft. Microsoft doesn't just market their games as something good that people should buy. They market them as a good game that is also a BIG FUCKING DEALtm. They turn them into events that gamers may feel like they're missing out on if they don't buy the game. Gears of War's "Emergence Day" is a great example of this, and it was the incredible marketing campaign that propelled the game to an insane 36% attach rate over the '06 Holiday season.

Sony needs to start marketing their flagship titles in a similar manner. Instead of marketing them as simply good games ps3 owners should buy, they should be marketing them as games people should by a ps3 for. Uncharted should've been their own exclusive Assassin's Creed, but it wasn't.

Hopefully, Uncharted 2 will be given the marketing it deserves. Given Sony's past marketing efforts, however, I think they'll only bother breaking the bank on GT5, while shoving their other titles under the rug.

Depending on marketing, Uncharted 2 could sell anywhere from 2 million to 3.5 million.  More then likely closer to the 2 million mark, sadly.

I reckon that U2 will sell more. I think L4D2 will do well especially as there aren't that many exclusives left this year...but reckon that U2 will seel better due to the perception of the game as well as the much better PS3 sales this year compared to last with the price drop.

The PS3 will be the machine to have this Xmas and U2 will be the game IMHO.

Its a bit unfair imo.

Uncharted 1 = People thought it was another Tomb Raider game.
L4D1 = People hyped it up because it looked like a fun and great horror co-op game.

Uncharted 2 = People was taken by surprise with U1 and found the best story ever in a videogame.
L4D2 = People got dissapointed with the lack of support, no story and it got repetetive.

By those standards, Uncharted 2 is bound to win. Though the 360 always have a strong holiday and a greater userbase that tend to like those kinds of games. Which might give Uncharted 2 a run for its money.