tombi123 said:
Remember Uncharted released when the PS3's install base was about 7.5M.

This doesn't matter, people continued to pick up Uncharted all the way up to its userbase of 23+ million today.
Releasing on a smaller install base effects sales, especially sub 10M install bases.
Not really, like I said people have still been buying Uncharted since its debut.
Yes really. The effect wares off as the user base gets bigger. Its the (main) reason why MGS2 outsold MGS4.
We're going to have to agree to disagree on this one.
I am going to say Uncharted 2. Reasons:

1/ It looks better than the first and has online multiplayer.
Uncharted was already a quality game anyway, being a little bit better isn't going to get someone to buy U2 that wouldn't have bought U1 ...   

The online multiplayer will turn all those rentals into sales. Plus, U2 is garenteed a meta score of 90+%. 

Guarenteed? No ... Nothing is Guarenteed and it got a lower score than L4D, do I think L4D will do any better because it'll (likely) score better than the first ... no, like I said Uncharted was quality in the first place. It's not like Killzone 1 > Killzone 2.          

After all the awards U2 won at E3, I would say that it is 99% certain that U2 will get a 90+% meta score. L4D will get reviewed harshly if it feels like an expansion pack. I cant see it getting 90+%. You haven't commented on the U2 multiplayer...
Yes it will most likely hit 90%, if you do your reasearch on L4D2 then you wouldn't be saying it might feels like an expansion pack, it's correcting everything it did wrong the first time around, and contry to what peopel believe this would have been to big for DLC.

2/ much more hyped than the first.
Hype does not translate into sales. Mass marketing does, hype doesn't ...

It does have an effect though. I dont just mean on internet forums, I mean in stores as well (it will also have a bigger advertisement campaign).

I still don't believe hype (except for the big BIG games) does anything, just take LBP and K2 for example. the whole but they were new Ips doesn't cut it.

3/ Left4Dead only released last year.
.. so?

will people want another one so soon?

True enough, we shall have to wait and see!

4/ I feel the hype is lower for L4D2 than the original.
Per orders are already ahead of what L4D's were

well der... how many people pre order a new IP? You should also realise that the pre orders in NA (L4D's strongest market, Uncharted's second strongest) are higher for Uncharted 2 than for L4D.

Uncharted is out in around 6 weeks and it's pre orders are at 59k, L4D is out in 10 weeks, and its at 58K. As the release dates get closer more people will pre order in anticipation and awareness for the game. So lets say they both get another 10k added onto pre orders up until their releases (they're progresing at the same rate but obviously as release dates get closer they'll get larger) when Uncharted Hits stores, L4D will still have another 4 weeks to garner Pre orders.

So those numbers don't really matter.

Well L4D almost doubled Uncharted's sales in NA. You would hope the pre orders reflect that. Also L4D only sold 400K in Europe, where as Uncharted sold 1.45M.
And they will in time, Europe is L4Ds weak point, NA will be much stronger though.

5/ L4D will have stiff competition from Halo and (Infinity Ward) CoD.
Like last year when it was up against COD (which still did 5 mill+ on 360 alone, and Gears 2)

yeah but this call of duty will be bigger, and Halo is bigger than Gears, which isn't an FPS...

gears was out the same day (I think) as L4D, Halo launchs 2 months earlier. WaW was tracking ahead of COD4 all last year.

WaW was tracking ahead of CoD4 because CoD3 was rubbish. CoD4 had massive legs which meant WaW had a massive launch. MW2's launch is going to be a lot bigger than WaW's.
no idea what COD3 has got to do with 4 but whatever, COD5 will get a massive launch, but like I said before, it'll have great legs just like the first.

Lifetime:

Uncharted 2 - 3.5M
Left 4 Dead 2 - 2M