I want to put my prediction on record so I can later rightfully claim that I'm the perdiction king on VGC.

At this point in time many people haven't yet quite realized that PS3 will come 2nd and X360 third this generation. We've only known it for a couple of weeks that the PS3 Slim will be introduced at $299, and that MS probably has dropped it's X360 Pro and 'replacing it' with the X360 Elite at $299 and leaving Arcade at $199 (but a drop in Sep/Oct down to $179 is not out of the question in my opinion along with a $249 HDD equipped SKU/Elite). But within a few months there will be almost no one left who thinks the X360 can outsell the PS3 this generation (<--- that's actually my first prediction).

Now to the formal predictions:

- NPD USA September will have the PS3 at 390,000 units. X360 around 300,000.

- The 5 week month of September will sell between 1.0-1.1 million PS3's worldwide and ~750,000 X360s (not necessarily supported by initial VGC data)
* it's a 5-week month as defined by NPD

- Sept-Dec will sell roughly 6.9 million PS3s (sales 'Week ending 5th Sep' 2009 to and including 'Week ending 4th Jan' 2010) 
- Sept-Dec will sell roughly 5.5 mill X360s

(for reference, in the corresponding period last year the PS3 sold 4.5 million and the X360 sold 6.6 million. And VGC numbers right now show that including 'Week ending 15th Aug', the PS3 has sold 4.1 million in 2009 so far, and X360 has sold 4.55 million)

- Total PS3 sales in 2009 will be 11.4 million, and 30.5 million LTD (through Jan 4th 2010)
- Total X360 sales in 2009 will be 10,2 million, and 37.0 million LTD (through Jan 4th 2010)

(for reference, PS3 sold 10.0 million in 2008, and the X360 sold 10.9 million in 2008)

Therefore the PS360 gap will reduce to 6.6 million (compared to 7.73 mill in Jan 2009 and 8.17 million right now as I'm writing this)


Note that VGC sales data won't necessarily support my predictions initially, but my predictions are made with final VGC numbers in mind (after adjustments for official console shipment numbers have arrived etc, which usually takes about three months).

Also note that this is a pro prediction. There's no controversy, no hidden agenda or fanboy undertones in this prediction. It's just the plain truth.


You can quote me on this.

Needs more 360 doom, IMO.

LOL

360 is DOMED!!!

Cool predictions...I Guess.

Are your predictions based on the probable GT5 release WW in Q4 and/or the release of FF13 in Japan?

But outside of that, great predictions, I hope they'll come true.

I agree with the sales estimates for this year. However, I don't agree with the ps3 eventually overtaking the 360, at least not yet. It all depends on what happens next fall. The 360 has a potential game changer on their hands with natal. However, it is too early to predict how much support it will get, so thats why I say it is still too early to declare who wins.

GT5 release in Europe/US no, Japan only. If GT5 releases ww in Dec (which I dont believe) , it should increase PS3 sales by a few hundred thousand or so.

I've accounted for the FF13 release Q4 in Japan, of course.

Hmm, risky predictions.

I give Natal only 25% chance to become a game changer - which actually translates into a clear statement (prediction) that Natal won't increase sales enough to overtake the PS3. I do think Natal willl be moderatley successful though, but most important the tech will carry over to the next gen. And btw remember, Sony has their wand tech too.