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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 6 to 8 million Wiis available this holiday season?

TheBigFatJ on 11 October 2007
TheSource said:

A couple things:

The statement of doubling supply was likely meant just for the USA & Canada, which would imply the following figures

2006 2007

Nov: ~500k Wii sold ~1 million sold?

Dec ~ 604k Wii sold ~1.2 million sold?

Think about this as well:

Through June 2007, 9.27 Wiis were shipped worldwide. 95% of them were reported sold by Vgchartz (8.88 million).

Wii is currently at ~12.2 million worldwide (Oct 6).

Wii should be at 13 million worldwide in the first few days of November if you assume anything over of 200k per week.

Sales tend to double worldwide in November. Tons of Wiis are going to be released to accompany Mario Galaxy as well.

That would put Wii at ~14.5 million by the end of November.

Sales tend to double again - worldwide - in December. To get to the end of the year December sales include 5 weeks.

Say four of them are 2x November sales.

14.5 + (800k x 4) = 17.7 million + one extra week ~ 18-18.5 million as a pretty realistic expectation.

At 1,000,000 Wiis sold per month in Jan-March 08', that puts Nintendo right on pace to have sell through of 21 million.

Now is 18-18.5 million realistic? If sell through remains at 95% of shipments as it did through June 30 it would mean Nintendo had shipped 19-20 million Wiis by Dec 31 2007, which would put them on pace to reach their stated shipment goal of 22.3 million units by March 31, 2008.

(.95)(22.3) = ~21 million units sold to gamers by March 31 2008.

Since sales are not going to decline during the holidays, it is pretty unreasonable to expect sales of under 17/18 million sold to gamers by the end of Nintendo's fiscal year in March 2008

 

 

Your logic assumes that sales will double because they're not supply constrained.

Let's look from another perspective: Nintendo cannot sell more than they produce, and we believe they're producing about 1 million per month. So if they sell 1 million in October, 1 million in November and 1 million in December then they will be under 16 million total at the end of the year. This suggests their rate of sales world wide will be approximately the same as it has been since a month or so after the Wii launched including the minor supply increase we saw over the summer.

NJ5: What would the terms of your bet be.  My statement implied that Nintendo would barely break the 16 million mark, but for the same of betting let's say I'm suggesting Nintendo won't break 16 million. That's nice and clean and easy to determine who won.

I'm a Wii supporter, I just don't think Nintendo can sell more than they produce. 



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NJ5 on 11 October 2007
TheBigFatJ said:

 

 

NJ5: What would the terms of your bet be. My statement implied that Nintendo would barely break the 16 million mark, but for the same of betting let's say I'm suggesting Nintendo won't break 16 million. That's nice and clean and easy to determine who won.


Sure, we can even make it 17 million to make it more interesting. And the terms? 2 weeks ban for whoever loses? Avatar changing is also fine by me.

I just hope you're aware that supply will increase during the holiday season... Reggie from Nintendo has said so for example.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Sullla on 11 October 2007

As usual, TheSource restores logic to the thread.

TheBigFatJ, Nintendo will be releasing its latest financial numbers very shortly, just a week or two away. If they truly can't ship more than 16 million units in this upcoming quarter, there's no possible way they can meet their goal of 22m by March 2008. In other words, if you are correct, we should see a major revision downwards of Nintendo's projections in their latest financial statement.

Until that occurs, I'm sticking with Nintendo's own numbers: 22m by the end of March, which means ~18m by the end of 2007.



My Website

End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

superchunk on 11 October 2007

Based on Source's post, I'm just low of target. I want lots of cudos if I'm right on in January. else, I'll eat plenty of seasoned crow.



johnlucas on 11 October 2007
KruzeS said:
Reading IGN's Live Blog of the Nintendo US Media Summit 2007, everyone seems to focus on the Brawl delay (to Feb 10), but there's a more interesting quote hidden there IMO:

“Been making more Wii systems. Demand continues to surprise Nintendo. Consumers will still have to "hustle" to find the system this year. Will have about two times the product they had last year.”

If this's worldwide my friends, it could mean something like 6 to 8 million Wiis being shipped this holiday (compared to last year's 3 to 4 million).

Wii at (or very near to) 20 million by December 31st?



This must be my cue.

Now WHERE have I heard that number before? Hmmmmmm...

20 million by year's end worldwide....Hmmmmmmm....

Twenty million before 2008 begins.....Hmmmmmmm....

1/50 of a billion before The Year of the Rat.....Hmmmmmm.....

And to think, they all laughed at me. Hahahahahahahaha!

John Lucas 



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

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TWRoO on 11 October 2007
I have 4 comments.
1st; huzzah for Nintendo and whatever methods they use to increase christmas supply, i would estimate it's not much over 6M than being near 8, but 6M is still a hell of a lot for two months (considering 360 and PS3 together will probably be under 6 Million)
2nd;
grandmaster192 said:
8 millon Wii's being available in November/December seems a bit far-fetched. Let's not forget that's right around the cornor. If this is true, I expect the Wii not to sell out. 8 millon is enough to meet the demand. However, I doubt that this is true.
The DS sold 8 million in November and December last year, and was supply constrained in some areas, The Wii demand is probably close to DS demand (Higher in the USA, lower in Jp, slightly lower in Eu) If there was a supply of 8 million Wiis in those two months, i would expect sell out (95% plus being classed as sell out)....however like i said i reckon it will be a mere 6-6.5M supply over christmas.
3rd; The source Wins the thread as usual.
4th; Go John Lucas go you crazy foo' i am doubting 20M plus by end 07 myself, but the way you predict things makes me feel ashamed when i doubt you.
by the way i watched the WiiFit presentation after the Nintendo conference video and i have to say Wii Fit is going to be massive in Japan, and Huge with a capital H in the USA (though i am unsure about launch figures, could do a brain training there) and it could be big in EU, but with all these different countries i am unsure of the market, i mean the mediteranians are all fit despite the amounts that they smoke, drink and eat, so why would they need to get fit.....ok i seem to have started a conversation.
/post


superchunk on 11 October 2007
johnlucas said:

This must be my cue.

Now WHERE have I heard that number before? Hmmmmmm...

20 million by year's end worldwide....Hmmmmmmm....

Twenty million before 2008 begins.....Hmmmmmmm....

1/50 of a billion before The Year of the Rat.....Hmmmmmm.....

And to think, they all laughed at me. Hahahahahahahaha!

John Lucas


 
Well, yours might be closer than mine in the end, at least as far as Wii goes. It sucks too, I originally thought 19m but a month later (in June) I lowered all of my totals. 360 and PS3 are still right on, but Nintendo will get more Wii's into the channel than I had predicted. Watch it be right in the middle or our predictions.



rudyrsr8 on 11 October 2007

Wii win lol. Anyways I believe Nintendo has been holding some Wii's for the holiday season to make the whole only 1 million a month produced. Also isn't it reasonable to assume Nintendo is intentionally allowing all of us to underestimate their sales for marketing purposes?



"Like you know"

johnlucas on 11 October 2007
superchunk said:
johnlucas said:

This must be my cue.

Now WHERE have I heard that number before? Hmmmmmm...

20 million by year's end worldwide....Hmmmmmmm....

Twenty million before 2008 begins.....Hmmmmmmm....

1/50 of a billion before The Year of the Rat.....Hmmmmmm.....

And to think, they all laughed at me. Hahahahahahahaha!

John Lucas



Well, yours might be closer than mine in the end, at least as far as Wii goes. It sucks too, I originally thought 19m but a month later (in June) I lowered all of my totals. 360 and PS3 are still right on, but Nintendo will get more Wii's into the channel than I had predicted. Watch it be right in the middle or our predictions.


Superchunk: a lesson.

NEVER back down from your stance.

Make sure your stance is solid first before committing of course but once you're sure, stick to your guns.

Never back down under pressure. Sometimes you may be the ONLY one who believes you but that's all you need. That's a lesson for life. Make a clear vision and don't budge because of the naysayers.

People's opinions will change on a dime. People are fickle. You can't follow that. You stake out a claim and you hold it true to heart.

I never had ANY doubt they could make this and I STILL think they're just underreporting what they can really do. 20 million was frankly the EASY call. Take PS2's approx. 120 million life to date sales and divide that by 5. You get 20 million. They're in year 7 and are in the 120 million range. Wii is trending HIGHER than PS2 and will always trend higher because of its market-expansive properties and the type of competition it faces.

If in 7 years PS2 is in the 120 million range then Wii can beat that with a 20 million in the 1st year before market expansion fully develops in which each subsequent year flares outward.

A lot of thinking goes behind these seemingly crazy predictions, man. I don't just pull this stuff out of my "arse", you know.  

Stick to your guns Superchunk. That's why you have the TRUE in red by one of your predictions.

John Lucas 



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

superchunk on 11 October 2007
johnlucas said:
superchunk said:
johnlucas said:

This must be my cue.

Now WHERE have I heard that number before? Hmmmmmm...

20 million by year's end worldwide....Hmmmmmmm....

Twenty million before 2008 begins.....Hmmmmmmm....

1/50 of a billion before The Year of the Rat.....Hmmmmmm.....

And to think, they all laughed at me. Hahahahahahahaha!

John Lucas



Well, yours might be closer than mine in the end, at least as far as Wii goes. It sucks too, I originally thought 19m but a month later (in June) I lowered all of my totals. 360 and PS3 are still right on, but Nintendo will get more Wii's into the channel than I had predicted. Watch it be right in the middle or our predictions.


Superchunk: a lesson.

NEVER back down from your stance.

Make sure your stance is solid first before committing of course but once you're sure, stick to your guns.

Never back down under pressure. Sometimes you may be the ONLY one who believes you but that's all you need. That's a lesson for life. Make a clear vision and don't budge because of the naysayers.

People's opinions will change on a dime. People are fickle. You can't follow that. You stake out a claim and you hold it true to heart.

I never had ANY doubt they could make this and I STILL think they're just underreporting what they can really do. 20 million was frankly the EASY call. Take PS2's approx. 120 million life to date sales and divide that by 5. You get 20 million. They're in year 7 and are in the 120 million range. Wii is trending HIGHER than PS2 and will always trend higher because of its market-expansive properties and the type of competition it faces.

If in 7 years PS2 is in the 120 million range then Wii can beat that with a 20 million in the 1st year before market expansion fully develops in which each subsequent year flares outward.

A lot of thinking goes behind these seemingly crazy predictions, man. I don't just pull this stuff out of my "arse", you know.

Stick to your guns Superchunk. That's why you have the TRUE in red by one of your predictions.

John Lucas

 

Yeah, very true.

Not bad though, in december I said wii=12m, 360=14m, and ps3=8m. In April I realized I was too low and changed to wii=19m, 360= 16m, ps3=10m. Then in June I though I was way off, so I finalized at my current pred. What I should have done was leave 360/ps3 the same as my december, and only changed Wii in April. Then I would be probably right on.

Anyway I got to give it to ya, I thought you were way over with the 20m, but, it seems you must control Nintendo's production lines, because they seem to be trying to keep you true.