| TheSource said: A couple things: The statement of doubling supply was likely meant just for the USA & Canada, which would imply the following figures 2006 2007 Nov: ~500k Wii sold ~1 million sold? Dec ~ 604k Wii sold ~1.2 million sold? Think about this as well: Through June 2007, 9.27 Wiis were shipped worldwide. 95% of them were reported sold by Vgchartz (8.88 million). Wii is currently at ~12.2 million worldwide (Oct 6). Wii should be at 13 million worldwide in the first few days of November if you assume anything over of 200k per week. Sales tend to double worldwide in November. Tons of Wiis are going to be released to accompany Mario Galaxy as well. That would put Wii at ~14.5 million by the end of November. Sales tend to double again - worldwide - in December. To get to the end of the year December sales include 5 weeks. Say four of them are 2x November sales. 14.5 + (800k x 4) = 17.7 million + one extra week ~ 18-18.5 million as a pretty realistic expectation. At 1,000,000 Wiis sold per month in Jan-March 08', that puts Nintendo right on pace to have sell through of 21 million. Now is 18-18.5 million realistic? If sell through remains at 95% of shipments as it did through June 30 it would mean Nintendo had shipped 19-20 million Wiis by Dec 31 2007, which would put them on pace to reach their stated shipment goal of 22.3 million units by March 31, 2008. (.95)(22.3) = ~21 million units sold to gamers by March 31 2008. Since sales are not going to decline during the holidays, it is pretty unreasonable to expect sales of under 17/18 million sold to gamers by the end of Nintendo's fiscal year in March 2008
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Your logic assumes that sales will double because they're not supply constrained.
Let's look from another perspective: Nintendo cannot sell more than they produce, and we believe they're producing about 1 million per month. So if they sell 1 million in October, 1 million in November and 1 million in December then they will be under 16 million total at the end of the year. This suggests their rate of sales world wide will be approximately the same as it has been since a month or so after the Wii launched including the minor supply increase we saw over the summer.
NJ5: What would the terms of your bet be. My statement implied that Nintendo would barely break the 16 million mark, but for the same of betting let's say I'm suggesting Nintendo won't break 16 million. That's nice and clean and easy to determine who won.
I'm a Wii supporter, I just don't think Nintendo can sell more than they produce.
