Always thought around 18m by the end of the year - and I'll stick with that.

Be interesting to see how the delay for Smash affects things - if at all. Still more than likely to sell out, so shifting Smash might be the best move Ninty ever made.

*if* Ninty can get the extra units out, 20m isn't beyond reach. Purely manufacturing limits - nothing else.

Expect 1.5m/m in Jan/Feb/March '08 (maybe more?), which is around 4.5m. So to make 22m by (end) March '08, that is 17.5-18m by end of '07.

I don't care to have you banned and I don't see why you'd want me banned, since we're both Nintendo's fans. We could do the avatar thing if you'd want, or we could put a sig message about how the other was right. For example, I could put:

"I was wrong, NJ5 was right -- Nintendo sold more than 16 million consoles before 2008."

And leave it there until April.

I would agree. I don't know Nintendo's status of working for manufacturing deals, so there's always the chance that they'll significantly increase capacity just before or after the holiday period. Although I'd suspect Reggie wouldn't have made some statements that he has made if this was the case. I think they'll downward-revise to 20m or so.

Nintendo seems to have believed it was close to manufacturing increases several times now because they'd been talking about it since the beginning of the year.  Now that they've suggested that Wii supply won't be 'unprecidented' this holiday, they must have come to the conclusion that they couldn't increase capacity in time for the holidays. 

The sig thing sounds great, and you're right that I see no benefit in getting you (nor most people in this forum) banned. The only reason I mentioned it is that it seems to be the current standard around here ;)

Deal :) And let's make it 17 million because you did say "barely break 16 million", so it wouldn't be fair to use 16.

Yeah, it's just a friendly bet.  I'll take the extra million because I believe they have a decent shot at hitting 16 milliion anyhow.

That article about Nintendo having manufacturing problems was dated way back in June. It's October now.

KruzeS said: Reading IGN's Live Blog of the Nintendo US Media Summit 2007, everyone seems to focus on the Brawl delay (to Feb 10), but there's a more interesting quote hidden there IMO: “Been making more Wii systems. Demand continues to surprise Nintendo. Consumers will still have to "hustle" to find the system this year. Will have about two times the product they had last year.” If this's worldwide my friends, it could mean something like 6 to 8 million Wiis being shipped this holiday (compared to last year's 3 to 4 million). Wii at (or very near to) 20 million by December 31st? source: http://wii.ign.com/articles/826/826577p1.html

Delaying Brawl weren't necessarily a bad thing. They can get other games/(and those consoles) sold during X-mas.

And after holiday craze cools down they is the Brawl waiting for it. (Hopefully with these delays we will get

almost simultanious lauch.(Which could be a good thing.) 

20 mil. consoles at Dec. 31 will not be that much off, most likely -+10% at that point.

After Big N publishes their quarter report , we can continue this debate ;) 

Since then, Reggie had been stating that Wii supplies were going to be way up for the holidays.  He used the word 'unprecidented' to describe how many Wiis they were going to get into the supply chain.  Recently, he changed his tune entirely suggesting that people buy Wiis as soon as they can because there will be supply problems for the holiday.  Then he got defensive about it saying that it was because demand was so high, not because supply was low.

To be fair, supply isn't low.  It just isn't being increased to meet demand and that's how Nintendo is dropping the ball.