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TheBigFatJ on 12 October 2007
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NJ5 said:
TheBigFatJ said:

 

 

NJ5: What would the terms of your bet be. My statement implied that Nintendo would barely break the 16 million mark, but for the same of betting let's say I'm suggesting Nintendo won't break 16 million. That's nice and clean and easy to determine who won.


Sure, we can even make it 17 million to make it more interesting. And the terms? 2 weeks ban for whoever loses? Avatar changing is also fine by me.

I just hope you're aware that supply will increase during the holiday season... Reggie from Nintendo has said so for example.

 


I don't care to have you banned and I don't see why you'd want me banned, since we're both Nintendo's fans. We could do the avatar thing if you'd want, or we could put a sig message about how the other was right. For example, I could put:

"I was wrong, NJ5 was right -- Nintendo sold more than 16 million consoles before 2008."

And leave it there until April.


TheBigFatJ, Nintendo will be releasing its latest financial numbers very shortly, just a week or two away. If they truly can't ship more than 16 million units in this upcoming quarter, there's no possible way they can meet their goal of 22m by March 2008. In other words, if you are correct, we should see a major revision downwards of Nintendo's projections in their latest financial statement.

I would agree. I don't know Nintendo's status of working for manufacturing deals, so there's always the chance that they'll significantly increase capacity just before or after the holiday period. Although I'd suspect Reggie wouldn't have made some statements that he has made if this was the case. I think they'll downward-revise to 20m or so.

Nintendo seems to have believed it was close to manufacturing increases several times now because they'd been talking about it since the beginning of the year.  Now that they've suggested that Wii supply won't be 'unprecidented' this holiday, they must have come to the conclusion that they couldn't increase capacity in time for the holidays.