Pants are overrated.

Wanna bet?

I think that Nintendo is going to ship 5-6 million consoles WW this christmas. Nice it became Sony bashing thread thanks Words Of Wisdom for starting.

Don't blame Sqrl for a mistake that Words Of Wisdom made.

A couple things:

The statement of doubling supply was likely meant just for the USA & Canada, which would imply the following figures 

2006                                2007

Nov: ~500k Wii sold       ~1 million sold?

Dec ~ 604k Wii sold        ~1.2 million sold?

Think about this as well:

Through June 2007, 9.27 Wiis were shipped worldwide.  95% of them were reported sold by Vgchartz (8.88 million).

Wii is currently at ~12.2 million worldwide (Oct 6). 

Wii should be at 13 million worldwide in the first few days of November if you assume anything over of 200k per week.

Sales tend to double worldwide in November.  Tons of Wiis are going to be released to accompany Mario Galaxy as well.

That would put Wii at ~14.5 million by the end of November.

Sales tend to double again - worldwide - in December.  To get to the end of the year December sales include 5 weeks.

Say four of them are 2x November sales.

14.5 + (800k x 4) = 17.7 million + one extra week ~ 18-18.5 million as a pretty realistic expectation.

At 1,000,000 Wiis sold per month in Jan-March 08', that puts Nintendo right on pace to have sell through of 21 million. 

Now is 18-18.5 million realistic?  If sell through remains at 95% of shipments as it did through June 30 it would mean Nintendo had shipped 19-20 million Wiis by Dec 31 2007, which would put them on pace to reach their stated shipment goal of 22.3 million units by March 31, 2008.

(.95)(22.3) = ~21 million units sold to gamers by March 31 2008.

Since sales are not going to decline during the holidays, it is pretty unreasonable to expect sales of under 17/18 million sold to gamers by the end of Nintendo's fiscal year in March 2008

My prediction is 19 million at the end of the year, pretty close to yours.

As usual, excellent analysis from The Source. Seriously, some one should be paying this guy.

I don't think it would surprise anyone to learn that Nintendo was working on increasing supply to (probably) 2 to 2.5 Million systems per month. If you make an assumption that Nintendo's initial plan of having this increase was delayed from July/August to September/October it is plausable that they would "hold off" the initial shipment increases until November; a shipment of 3 Million systems in November with an additional 2 to 3 Million units in December could be possible.

^Right now, their DS supply is 2.5M a month. I think the Wii one should be at, around, 1.5-1.7M a month.