A couple things:
The statement of doubling supply was likely meant just for the USA & Canada, which would imply the following figures
2006 2007
Nov: ~500k Wii sold ~1 million sold?
Dec ~ 604k Wii sold ~1.2 million sold?
Think about this as well:
Through June 2007, 9.27 Wiis were shipped worldwide. 95% of them were reported sold by Vgchartz (8.88 million).
Wii is currently at ~12.2 million worldwide (Oct 6).
Wii should be at 13 million worldwide in the first few days of November if you assume anything over of 200k per week.
Sales tend to double worldwide in November. Tons of Wiis are going to be released to accompany Mario Galaxy as well.
That would put Wii at ~14.5 million by the end of November.
Sales tend to double again - worldwide - in December. To get to the end of the year December sales include 5 weeks.
Say four of them are 2x November sales.
14.5 + (800k x 4) = 17.7 million + one extra week ~ 18-18.5 million as a pretty realistic expectation.
At 1,000,000 Wiis sold per month in Jan-March 08', that puts Nintendo right on pace to have sell through of 21 million.
Now is 18-18.5 million realistic? If sell through remains at 95% of shipments as it did through June 30 it would mean Nintendo had shipped 19-20 million Wiis by Dec 31 2007, which would put them on pace to reach their stated shipment goal of 22.3 million units by March 31, 2008.
(.95)(22.3) = ~21 million units sold to gamers by March 31 2008.
Since sales are not going to decline during the holidays, it is pretty unreasonable to expect sales of under 17/18 million sold to gamers by the end of Nintendo's fiscal year in March 2008
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
