I'm not going to just throw around numbers like everyone else. I like to justify.

Uncharted 2:

The original Uncharted launched back in December 2007. It was a good holiday season for the PS3, but it was still lagging behind in sales. It wasn't even at 10 million. The game also kind of came out of nowhere- it was a new IP.

The launch week was horrendous, it just broke 100k units (mostly due to a broken street date I believe). However, it sold 100k+ for nearly 10 weeks, and had great legs. It was finally bundled and hit 2.5 million, and is on the way to selling more.

Uncharted 2 has gotten a lot more hype because of the quality of the original game. It's been winning best of E3 awards and getting loads of coverage from gaming websites. Of course, they've improved on the original- online multiplayer, improved graphics and animations, more gameplay variety, you name it. This should also be a great holiday for the PS3, with a Slim + Price cut, and there's not much competition in the same genre, so it'll have a strong opening week, a strong holiday, and go on to sell 3.5-4 million units.

God of War III:

God of War has always been a popular franchise amongst "hardcore" (meaning informed) Sony fans. It didn't sell gangbusters on PS2, though the original did crack 3 million, and the sequel got pretty close, considering it launched when the next generation was well under way. With good reason, too- it's awesome. Again, they've improved it, and put it in glorious 1080p high definition. It's not locked at 60fps, but it'll run around there throughout. This game has the advantage of being the first on the console, and it's launching on a console with no piracy.

Many may have overlooked God of War 1 + 2, with the plethora of quality titles available on the PS2. The original launched late in the generation- March 2005, just a few months before the 360's launch. God of War III, conversely, is launching just two and a half years into the generation, on a console with decidedly less quality software than the PS2. The PS3 has, of course, been losing 3rd party exclusives, so more emphasis has been needed on the first party lineup, and for this reason, it's more hyped than the first two games put together (before you bring up how hype has no effect on sales, please go see Killzone 2).

Sure, it's launching on a smaller userbase, but God of War was never a "casual" franchise, so PS2 owners who owned it would be more likely to buy PS3s, and those who had overlooked it and bought PS3s anyway will hopefully see what a gem it is, since it's not hidden in a massive pile of such gems, and buy it. It may not have a holiday season to help its legs, but none of the God of War games have. I predict 3.5-4 million units, again. Higher than bother previous God of War titles.

Gran Turismo 5

Again, launching in a holiday season, which is a huge bonus. Gran Turismo is famous for its fantastic sales- the best of any PS-exclusive franchise, ever. All but one of the full games have gone on to sell over 10 million units. Historically, the first full GT on the platform sells best. GT1 outsold GT2, GT3 outsold GT4. GT4 also outsold GT2, and GT3 outsold GT1, which means the series has been growing- though this can mostly be attributed to the PS2, which of course sold more than the PS1. That, and GT3 was bundled (apparently).

The Prologue has sold 3 million units (not counting PSN sales, which are somewhere in the realm of 400k), and it's basically a demo. The majority of people who bought it will go on to buy GT5, and a LOT of people who didn't buy it as well- this is one of the few titles that Sony can call a system seller.

Of course, the sales of the earlier GT games are partially due to the enormous install base they had to work with. Yes, GT3 launched on 10 million units, but in the end, it's had over 130 million people to sell to. The PS3 will be lucky to get half of that, but it's not simple division. A lot of those 130 million were more casual gamers, who went on to purchase the Wii, or did not purchase another console at all. They probably wouldn't buy GT5 even if they did own PS3s- they would be buying the SingStars and Guitar Heroes and Buzzes and perhaps LBP (if they have good taste).

GTA4 on PS3 was, of course, a first day multiplat with the X360. The 360 version had exclusive DLC, plus the 360 is bigger in America, where GTA is biggest, and the PS3 struggles there a bit. A lot of PS2 GTA fans would have bought 360s as well, since they wouldn't have the same brand loyalty, and of course it became multiplat, so they took the cheaper option, I suppose. Or the earlier one. Or both. Nevertheless, the PS3 version will go on to sell around 6.5-7 million copies.

GT5 is exclusive. It's a Gran Turismo. It can do more than that. I predict 8.5-9.5 million sales: the highest selling PS3 game, the lowest selling full Gran Turismo, and it won't outsell Halo 3.

Why so low?

I'm more confused by how you think GT5 will sell 13 million on a console where GoWIII sells 2.5 million o_O

Because thats as high as the PS3 installed base seems to get. I hope there is a price cut on the PS3 so the GT sales could be higher.

I dont see this "HYPE" your talking about even among PS3 owners.  UC2 will only get those numbers with a pack in like the first one. GOW... err,  God of War, well I see only fans of the original series snatching it up. New adopters dont want to spend over $450 to play a game anymore. GT5?  The demo did good cause it was the only freek'n Sim racing game out even in demo form.  It still should do good.  There is nothing like it on PS3 so its a Sale/stand alone title = no competition

You yourself said "6-8 million". And you don't think FF13 can sell a million in Japan first week.

There will be a price cut, that's pretty much a given. Projected raise in console sales + 3 hour press conference + PS3 Slim = price cut.

Remember that we're talking about lifetime sales, and considering how long this GT game has taken to develop I doubt we'll be seeing a replacement on PS3 anytime soon. I reckon GT5 will be heavily bundled for a long time helping the game reach numbers around GT3/4 by the end of its life-cycle.

Hype made a game where you play as a piece of cloth and run and jump and grab things (LBP- it's an awesome game, but that's not why it sold) sell over 2 million units. It also made a reasonably good but generic FPS (Resistance 2) cross a million within a couple of months, and then go on track to sell over 2 million.

So what can hype do to the sequel of such a successful game? (please don't bring up RFOM's sales- it was bundled pretty heavily, and it was the only quality title available for ages).

People don't seem to understand what hype is. It isn't a bunch of forum threads. It's awareness and excitement for a game. Advertising helps with that, as do coverage, pre-release awards and being part of an established franchise. And guess what- Uncharted 2 and God of War III have (or will have) all four.

Nailed it...

Great post.