actually GT5 sold about 15,000 last week, and we are in the middle of summer, sales are slow. in the fall and winter this game will get close to a couple of 100,000 weeks, and will sell close to a 2 million in the last 6 months of this year.

Could you please post each posters prediction to back up your figures as I did.

Also why is your totals only based on initial estimates and not post release estimates as well, especially as these both confirm GT5 and GoW are significantly overestimated.

As requested by CGI quality, he doesn't like cherry picking.

Says a difference of .1 on my lookup. Also is it your supposition that say for example, any game released toward the end of last year that's doing about the same is also likely to add another 2 million in the next 6 months, and another 3-4 million in it's lifetime. So we should say Halo reach will be 10.5 M by years end and 11 - 12.5 M overall.

Fable 3 will end up at 6-7 Million?

Assassins Creed Brotherhood  will go between 6-7 million? Is it typical for games to double their sales a year after launch.

Will this happen again with MW3. 20 million in the first 8 months, then 40 million by mid 2013 for example?

1) what... i posted numbers for both pre release and post release. and also averaged both. also when including all of them (even the ones after the games release) God of War is as of today, spot on, but good thing its still going to sell tomorrow, and the next day, and the next and the next, etc. Uncharted is Uncharted is absurdly under, only Gt5 is over. and thats because its been out for 8 months, and hasnt had a second Chistmas.

2) i have no idea what you are saying. GT4 sold over 14,000 last week. i dont dont know what supposition means. but yes GT5 should add another 3-4 lifetime. and even if it doesnt all it needs is 2 million to reach the predictions, and 2.3 for post and pre predictions, something it will come close to doing by the end of this year, and will pass with in a year from now.

barring  any pending adjustments on GT5, it should be around 8 million by the end of this year. by the end of next year (2012) it should be around 9.2 million, and by the end of its life it should be able to sell another 800,000 to reach 10 million. just look at any GT game and see its sales patterns

I would like to review your math, so I would like you to show the sub-totals, totals and workings out. You said you did the averages so you must have added them all up one by one. If you could list them in

1) How many predictions over all were over

2) How Many predictions overall were under

3) How many were within the realms of being correct (this one isn't actually necessary as it makes no difference)

Also a quote for each as evidence would be great. Remember, we are not trying to find out the average figure (i think you missed the point on this one) we  are trying to find out the number of estimates which were overor under the current figures. My estimates figure only applies to one set of people at a time, combining them is only going to steal crow from the plate of those who were wrong.

So GT4 is near level pegging with GT5?

Supposition is an assumption or the act of supposing. If you're saying that if a game is selling 15,000 a week or there abouts, is going to sell 1.7m in the next 6 months and 4 million "for the rest of its life", then we should expect Fable 3, AC:B and a number of other games to hit the 7-8 million life times as they are doing the same. 

Right, so you are saying it is typical for games as popular or even more popular to sell 2.8 million between it's 8th and 24th month of availability. Or for example, CoD:BlOps will sell approx 5.8 million more between now and the end of 2012 as well. 

It makes perfect sense, you made a prediction which hasn't come true as of of when I type this period. Eat crow until it does.

You like to jump to conclusions don't you, it applies to all 3 games. GT5 was just the easiest one to analyse. After all you said it was all cherry picked numbers and exaggerated them, when I have factually proven it's all numbers from the entire thread at whatever period they were posted. The very opposite of cherry picking.

It's hilarious that the other analysis, which is cherry picked is one you like. Don't worry. I will do Uncharted and gow3 for you as well. Perhaps then you will stop lying that there were more under estimators then over estimators.

I think the bottom line is you like to serve crow to a handful of people who guessed incorrectly, but don't like to eat it when you're wrong. 

Guys, it has no use to argue with RAZurrection mendozahotness. I've experienced it myself, it leads absolutely nowhere...

for the bolded i meant to say GT5, GT4 sold 0.

for you bottom part, you have to look at sales patterns of said game, previous entry in the series or similar games. COD dont have good legs after a year becuase a new one comes out, so for example Black ops on PS3 will sell less than 12 million lifetime, not 15-20 million. Fable games have terrible legs, this one also got bad reviews killing it legs. Uncharted last year had a hge Christmas boost selling like 1 million in the time frame, GOW3 sold even more. looking at GT5 and using the criteria i explained we can only assume it is going to be arounf 8 million by the end of this year. 

and here are you numbers

there were 25 predictions  each for GOW3/ UC2, and GT5 pre release.

24 out of 25 predictions were low for god of war

24 out of 25 (and the 25th was right on, so 25/25 at or below) of the Uncharted predictions were low

5 out of 25 of Gt5 predictions were low, and will be about 12 by the end of this year.

there were also 25 predictions post release for GOW and Uncharted, and 19 for GT5.

4 out of 25 for gow3 were to low, by the end of this year it wil be 12 of 25.

8 out of 25 (2 are spot on) were low for uncharted, and by the end of this year it will be 21/22 of 25.

2 out 19 were low for gt5, by the end of this year it will be 5 of 19.

You're right Mendoza. Our predictions were utter failures. Because our LIFETIME predictions haven't come true TODAY, that means we were just wrong. Because obviously, when we said Lifetime, we didn't mean when they're doing selling, we meant July 2011 because that's the cut off point for lifetime. Time to eat teh crow!

Seriously though, lifetime means when they're done selling. That could be 2, 4, 6, or even 8 or more years. Just look at GTA SA, the game still has another million or more left in it. If someone predicted it to sell 20m, they would be right. Even if it took 6+ years to reach that point.

i believe i have, what you would call, "owned" him