mendozahotness said:
I would like to review your math, so I would like you to show the sub-totals, totals and workings out. You said you did the averages so you must have added them all up one by one. If you could list them in 1) How many predictions over all were over 2) How Many predictions overall were under 3) How many were within the realms of being correct (this one isn't actually necessary as it makes no difference) Also a quote for each as evidence would be great. Remember, we are not trying to find out the average figure (i think you missed the point on this one) we are trying to find out the number of estimates which were overor under the current figures. My estimates figure only applies to one set of people at a time, combining them is only going to steal crow from the plate of those who were wrong.
So GT4 is near level pegging with GT5?
Supposition is an assumption or the act of supposing. If you're saying that if a game is selling 15,000 a week or there abouts, is going to sell 1.7m in the next 6 months and 4 million "for the rest of its life", then we should expect Fable 3, AC:B and a number of other games to hit the 7-8 million life times as they are doing the same.
Right, so you are saying it is typical for games as popular or even more popular to sell 2.8 million between it's 8th and 24th month of availability. Or for example, CoD:BlOps will sell approx 5.8 million more between now and the end of 2012 as well. |
for the bolded i meant to say GT5, GT4 sold 0.
for you bottom part, you have to look at sales patterns of said game, previous entry in the series or similar games. COD dont have good legs after a year becuase a new one comes out, so for example Black ops on PS3 will sell less than 12 million lifetime, not 15-20 million. Fable games have terrible legs, this one also got bad reviews killing it legs. Uncharted last year had a hge Christmas boost selling like 1 million in the time frame, GOW3 sold even more. looking at GT5 and using the criteria i explained we can only assume it is going to be arounf 8 million by the end of this year.
and here are you numbers
there were 25 predictions each for GOW3/ UC2, and GT5 pre release.
24 out of 25 predictions were low for god of war
24 out of 25 (and the 25th was right on, so 25/25 at or below) of the Uncharted predictions were low
5 out of 25 of Gt5 predictions were low, and will be about 12 by the end of this year.
| god of war | uncharted | gt5 |
| 4.5 | 3.8 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | 3 | 9.5 |
| 3.2 | 2.8 | 8.5 |
| 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 3.5 | 2.8 | 8 |
| 3 | 3 | 6.5 |
| 2.4 | 2.75 | 7 |
| 3.5 | 3 | 7.56 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.5 |
| 3.25 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 8 |
| 3.75 | 3.75 | 9 |
| 2.5 | 4 | 13 |
| 3.75 | 4.75 | 7.5 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| 3.6 | 3.2 | 8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 10 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 8.5 |
| 2.9 | 3.5 | 6.3 |
| 2.5 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | 4 | 11 |
there were also 25 predictions post release for GOW and Uncharted, and 19 for GT5.
4 out of 25 for gow3 were to low, by the end of this year it wil be 12 of 25.
8 out of 25 (2 are spot on) were low for uncharted, and by the end of this year it will be 21/22 of 25.
2 out 19 were low for gt5, by the end of this year it will be 5 of 19.
| GOW3 | Uncharted 2 | GT5 |
| 3.7 | 4 | 6 |
| 3.2 | 3.6 | 7.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 4.2 | 4.2 | 8.8 |
| 5 | 5 | - |
| 5 | 5 | 10.5 |
| 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | - |
| 3.75 | 3.75 | 9 |
| 4.5 | 5 | - |
| 4.1 | 4.6 | - |
| 4.5 | 4.75 | 9.5 |
| 4.2 | 4 | 9.5 |
| 4.1 | 4.75 | 9.5 |
| 4.8 | 5 | - |
| 5 | 5 | - |
| 4 | 4.9 | 11 |
| 4 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 4.7 | 5 | 9.5 |
| 5 | 5.1 | 6 |
| 6.5 | 5.5 | 9 |
| 6 | 6.5 | 10 |
| 6 | 6 | 8 |
