It's always fun to hypothesize which new companies would enter the console wars if there was an opportunity because a console left the market.
To be successful and eventually profitable, you need to have at least some of the following:
- IP/Software development experience
- Hardware design or development experience
- Money and resources to invest
- Good marketing
Here are the most likely candidates and why the would/would not enter in my opinion. I will give a brief description, some advantages and disadvantages, and whether they would make a serious bid if the opportunity arose.
--
Google
Description: An American technology company which despite its core business of search and advertising has shown considerable interest in many markets including office software, Earth simulation software, online communications and even video streaming.
Why they might enter: They would be great at software development due to the experienceand their brand name is strong although potentially not in the console market. They have large cash reserves and are willing to acquire any comapny to achieve their goals. They have a rivalry with Microsoft and an opportunity to compete against them in hardware would be taken advantage of quickly.
Problems: Unaffiliated with any hardware manufacturing companies and has never shown interest in physical products. No experience with games or consoles of any kind, so starting out would be difficult.
Yes or No?: No, the current strategic direction of Google is not compatible with consoles.
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)
Description: An American microchip design and production firm, which produces Intel x86-compatible CPUs and has recently acquired ATI who have made graphics hardware for the Gamecube, Wii and Xbox 360.
Why they might enter: Their processors' compatibility with PC hardware would make it excellent to attract PC developers. Cost of designing development kits would be minimal. AMD produces motherboard chipsets, CPUs and GPUs so console production could easily be entirely in-house but have competitive performance. Their partnership with IBM could lead to a further technical advantage.
Problems: They have been suffering large losses in recent quarters and have very large mounts of debt to pay off with no upcoming revolutions in product design that could reverse this enough.
Yes or No?: No, the financial issues are too great to justify such a venture.
NEC Corporation
Description: A large Japanese electronics company specialising in semiconductors and IT infrastructure. They previously made the PC Engine, which was successful in Japan considering it had to compete with the NES.
Why they might enter: Having previously entered a console but having "lost" due to the anti-competitive tactics of Nintendo, as well as having a background in general electronics, they have significant experience in hardware manufacture. They also have large cash reserves to invest in such a venture. Their former partnership with Hudson Soft could help with software development too, and they likely have IP from the PC Engine days too. Their IT infrastructure business would really help with online capabilities; this could be the killer feature of such a console.
Problems: Since PC Engine production was stopped they have had no interest in consoles.
Yes or No?: No, I don't think they would want to re-enter the business.
Apple, Inc.
Description: An American computer and related services company, producing Mac computers and the highly successful iPod (and iPhone) line.
Why they might enter: Apple has experience in hardware design (despite not producing much of the actual circuitry) and have a reputation for innovative yet easy-to-use software that could lead to great games and firmware. They have put together console-like devices in the past: the Apple TV and the Apple Pippin had what are considered niche functions of current consoles. A handheld would be even easier considering the iPhone. Apple's partnership with Intel would give some of the advantages of AMD, above, but without the resposibility of maintaining fabrication plants. Apple has highly successful brands they could use, with a renowned marketing department.
Problems: Apple has not shown interest in consoles, but could easily and with little risk produce one, so I see little reason for them not to if they couldn't proceed any further portable media and home computer markets.
Yes or No?: Yes, the customer base exists and the market is ready.
Sega
Description: A Japanese company best known for its software development but with minor interests in arcade machines and other electronics within Japan.
Why they might enter: They were once major names in the game console industry with the Sega Master System and Sega Genesis but the Sega Saturn disaster and the unfortunate competition with three other major players in the Sega Dreamcast era, especially Sony, caused them to leave. With Sony no longer the dominant force in the industry, and the games division being profitable if not the whole enterprise, a Sega console would likely attract a large following as their first-party IP is very popular.
Problems: They might not enter simply because the Dreamcast era memories may deter potential buyers and company executives may decide another Saturn would be too risky. In addition, they have a broad partnership with Nintendo for games and have good sales on the Wii and DS platforms so disrupting that could be bad for business.
Yes or No?: No, the risk is too great now for Sega.
IBM
Description: An American buisness/IT solution and semiconductor company with minor intersts in software development.
Why they might enter: They are one of the few companies with experience in every area of console platform design and manufacture except making one. Their POWER processors are used in all three of today's major home consoles, and the CBE shows they could make powerful graphics hardware if neccesary too. The IT and software department would help considerably with OS and game design. They have large cash reserves and a well-known brand name for reliable electronics. If any hardware was lacking, their partnership with AMD would be useful, although their technical advantage is stronger than any other company out there not in the console industry.
Problems: None, as far as I can tell.
Yes or No?: Yes, the technical advantages are numerous; it's just the software holding them back.
--
Looking at the facts, I believe that if any of the big three left the industry soon, IBM or Apple would produce a successful home console. I would buy it if the games were good enough, and the branding, hardware and software advantages are very strong for both.
What do you think?
Ubuntu. Linux for human beings.
If you are interested in trying Ubuntu or Linux in general, PM me and I will answer your questions and help you install it if you wish.
