I don't think the Conduit numbers (71k) even cover the cost of the advertising in the US.
There were a significant number of TV adds.
The marketing budget was definitly in the 5 Millions$ + range...
That might explain one of the complains you often see on these boards, the one about lack of marketing/Tv adds for Wii third party games.
If sales can't cover the cost of TV adds, you're better off not doing them...
You know this game'll have long legs, right?
Will it ?
It's not like Sega will be able to afford to keep airing TV adds for long...
And seeing how sales in 2 weeks were 71k my guess is second week sales were at best 30k, maybe less...
That doesn't bode well for legs...
HVS might end up making money, but honestly with the marketing campaign they did, I doubt Sega will...
Even if by some miracle the game has legs, sales won't have been affected much by the huge marketing so the return on those TV adds will still be very weak.
The idea with TV adds is that you expect them to significantly boost sales at the time they are airing... That did not happen.
OK, two weeks right? Let's assume second week sales were 30k, as you said. That would make first week 41k. Not so big a drop off right?
That would mean that legs seem to be good. And once more people get online and there's word of mouth it'll just keep selling. Also, Sega said first week sales were strong.
To me it just seems like you're guessing.
Two weeks of sales is not legs. Having a small dropoff doesn't mean you have legs. Wii Fit had a humongous dropoff in America, probably close to one of the biggest of all time percentage wise. Number wise, it was 600k. And now Wii Fit is one of the biggest games of the generation. You can't judge legs whatsoever by the first two weeks. Just remember that the publisher isn't always the best source for a game's sales. A publisher gets a lot more money from a game than a developer, so it's easier to impress them. Plus, they actually said the reviews were impressive. Are Sega and I looking at the same reviews here?
Stock levels were depleted. The drop was artificial, not natural demand.
As for The Conduits legs, we'll just have to watch and see though Wii games on average tend to have long legs that sell well beyond what the opening weeks suggest. Based on similar games with similar openings, The Conduit is still on pace for over 1 million in sales.
Also, to update my previous post regarding Tiger Woods sales, the remaining units between PS3, X360, PSP and PS2 was ~230k, not the 53k deduced from the IGN article.