omfg it sold 12.68 copies in 4 days? I am amazed..

Wwait, now I'm confused, where are all these numbers in X days coming from?

Hahahaha this is awesome xD

I guessed 2 million. So that's not too bad.

Yeah, that sounds about right to what I've been seeing around.  Not like all these 'estimates' I keep seeing and all these articles I see about 'DQ sells X amount in its first day/week/EVER'.  Now just to wait for the first week sales. And wade through all the 'estimates' to find the real number.  It will most likely deplete its 3 million stock to complete the first week sales.

hmm.. DQ8 had a start week (first 2 days) of ~ 2.268m and total sales of 3.68m in Japan (1.62 multiplier)

I wonder what kind of multiplier/total sales DQ9 can achieve..

arguments pro higher multi:
- higher userbase
- DS games generally have good legs

contra:
- first non-home console non-remake main line iteration
- seemingly lukewarm reception (might not be the case for the normal DQ buyer but only for "hardcores")

For now I think a 1.50-1.75 multiplier seems to be the most probable, which would put the game at 3.51m-4.1m in total jpn sales

I'm thinking that its going to depend on two things.  The amount of stock the game has in Japan and how much of an effect the 'DS' craze has on the series.  If its true that most Dragon Quest fans in Japan are already set as fans, then the game being on DS won't help the game sell better and it'll pretty much just sell near the same amount as DQVIII.  But pretty much every DQ game has sold about 15% better than its last main series game (except DQVIII, which sold about 3-4% less).  So its reasonable to think this game might as well.  And if you add the DS craze to the equation...it might pick up even more fans.

2.34 million ain't bad. Will already be the best selling game of the year in its first two days in Japan but that's no surprise.

So far, the DQ games on DS

Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 1st week (43.15% of total) => new game, DQ spinoff

Dragon Quest IV (49.54% of total) => remake

Dragon Quest V (57.15% of total) => remake

the multiplier ranged between 2.31 to 1.74

DQIX should be much more front loaded than these games.  I think your estimate will probably be correct.  The president of ENTERBRAIN predicted DQIX will sell more than 4 million copies, likely to hit 5 million.  But so far, 5 million seems like very challenging.

so vgc was wrong with their japan preview as usual, it didn't beat Halo 3 as the best opening week for a videogame.