I've seen a lot of predictions for conduit sales that are, frankly, pretty dumb. So I'm going to try to show an estimate for what it should be.

CoD5

First week americas = 44 468

Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.67

LTD = 1.2 million

End of life estimate = 1.4 million

Red Steel

First Week Americas = 133 208

Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.25

LTD = 1.19 million

End of life estimate = 1.2 million

CoD3

First Week Americas = 51 174

Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.49

LTD = 1.18 million

End of life estimate = 1.18 million

007: QoS

First Week Americas = 31 233

Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.63

LTD = 0.48 million

End of life estimate = 0.5 million

-----------------------------------

The Conduit

First Week Americas = 94 469

Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.66

LTD = 0.16 million

End of life estimate = See below

So far we can see that the Conduit will perhaps follow a similar pattern to CoD5 or 007 QoS in terms of the ratio of first week to final sales. There is simply no point considering CoD3 or Red Steel, which follow a different pattern it would appear.

Anyway, if the Conduit has the same ratio of first week Americas : end of life worldwide as CoD5 (with the end of life prediction of 1.4 million), the sales will be 2.97 million

Or, considering 007, sales will be 1.51 million.

My final prediction is half way between these two, at 2.25 million

Thoughts?

Sounds possible to me.

Too bad it flopped.

Way too many variables to compare first two weeks to lifetime, but I like your method.

@ Montana - yeah it's true, perhaps that's why my calculated end of life sales was in the range of 1.5-3 million, tis a fairly broad range.

If your theory is right that would be awesome but I'm not sure if the 1st to 2nd week ratio has a bearing on how much legs a title has.

I'm really starting to think The Conduit's end of life will be about 1.2 million similar to Red Steel. Red Steel was a launch title so of course it will have a different trend than The Conduit, but they have similar strengths/weaknesses in the market. Both games were panned critically (whether justified or not). Both were hyped new IPs with decent advertising. Red Steel got a launch bounce but The Conduit will have great word of mouth and legs from its great online multiplayer mode. It has no competition in this area as far as we know until Q4 2010 (The Grinder).

Also, if you look at Perfect Dark Zero for 360 it seems to have performed similar to Red Steel.

Now if EA or Activision get off of their butts and get something out their that compete in Q1 or Q2 2010 I will have to say that Conduit will do less... Maybe 750k

Also, as I have stated before I don't really consider Red Steel 2 to be that big of a competitor because of its lack of online. People will see the short campaign (despite it having awesome WM+ controls) and many will wait for it to drop in price...

I hope so, then we will see a very polished and high quality grinder and conduit 2 games :). seems very plausible, I think word of mouth and lack of similar games will keep this one selling for a long time. really like ur method of estimation btw :)

Multiply it's first week sales by 10 and you'll have your answer

Why? Because the general trend is Wii million sellers generally sell roughly 10% of their lifetime sales in the first week.

So I think 1.5 Million will be the end result assuming others pull in 60k week one.

Oh oh!

I just figured out a surefire scientific way to estimate the end of life!

Ok bare with me...

Take Metroid Prime 3 (Deduct out Japanese Sales)

Consider the fact that The Conduit is not a Nintendo title and is a new IP so deduct 25% Metroid Prime 3's total.

Now consider the fact that The Conduit has online multiplayer and add 10% back in...

BAM! 1.2 mil!

Seriously though... I guess if you wanted to take the time you could compare the normal curves and standard deviations for sales of all Wii FPS and get a little more scientific idea...

Good method, but as Montana said it's probably not very accurate considering there are only two weeks of sales. Also, Others sales are completely unaccounted for. I hope you're right, though. Over 2 million would be a massive success.

europe is so unpredictable with they buying habits just look at punch out, if you were to say to some after 7 weeks it would only have sold half of the americans first weeks sales no one would have believed you