If your theory is right that would be awesome but I'm not sure if the 1st to 2nd week ratio has a bearing on how much legs a title has.
I'm really starting to think The Conduit's end of life will be about 1.2 million similar to Red Steel. Red Steel was a launch title so of course it will have a different trend than The Conduit, but they have similar strengths/weaknesses in the market. Both games were panned critically (whether justified or not). Both were hyped new IPs with decent advertising. Red Steel got a launch bounce but The Conduit will have great word of mouth and legs from its great online multiplayer mode. It has no competition in this area as far as we know until Q4 2010 (The Grinder).
Also, if you look at Perfect Dark Zero for 360 it seems to have performed similar to Red Steel.
Now if EA or Activision get off of their butts and get something out their that compete in Q1 or Q2 2010 I will have to say that Conduit will do less... Maybe 750k
Also, as I have stated before I don't really consider Red Steel 2 to be that big of a competitor because of its lack of online. People will see the short campaign (despite it having awesome WM+ controls) and many will wait for it to drop in price...
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