I've seen a lot of predictions for conduit sales that are, frankly, pretty dumb. So I'm going to try to show an estimate for what it should be.
CoD5
First week americas = 44 468
Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.67
LTD = 1.2 million
End of life estimate = 1.4 million
Red Steel
First Week Americas = 133 208
Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.25
LTD = 1.19 million
End of life estimate = 1.2 million
CoD3
First Week Americas = 51 174
Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.49
LTD = 1.18 million
End of life estimate = 1.18 million
007: QoS
First Week Americas = 31 233
Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.63
LTD = 0.48 million
End of life estimate = 0.5 million
-----------------------------------
The Conduit
First Week Americas = 94 469
Ratio of 2nd week to 1st = 0.66
LTD = 0.16 million
End of life estimate = See below
So far we can see that the Conduit will perhaps follow a similar pattern to CoD5 or 007 QoS in terms of the ratio of first week to final sales. There is simply no point considering CoD3 or Red Steel, which follow a different pattern it would appear.
Anyway, if the Conduit has the same ratio of first week Americas : end of life worldwide as CoD5 (with the end of life prediction of 1.4 million), the sales will be 2.97 million
Or, considering 007, sales will be 1.51 million.
My final prediction is half way between these two, at 2.25 million
Thoughts?
