Appears as though Squilliam gets away with so much shit, such as this thread for eg.

This is starting to get really rediculous.

Now now, we can't ban him for being wrong (or can we??)

Anyway, I don't get troll vibes from this thread, at least not yet.

Ok, so you feel that the information is widely deseminated enough to have an effect on the market? Well I guess we can wait and see, as the results will come out soon either way.

Im not discounting WF+ as a complete dud, but I don't feel its significant enough. It seems like even less of an upgrade than something like Halo ODST from what I know of it.

NSMB: I can understand there may be a boost, but is it enough to bring the Wii back to parity with 2008 when Mario Kart, Wii Fit released? Especially after the fact that theres already been a 3d Mario released? 2d on handhelds is the only practical solution to creating a Mario game, whats the draw when people can play a 2D Mario on their handhelds and they are now the preferred platform for gaming in Japan at least?

In the Americas/Europe the Wii is closer to $200 realistically. Every Wii sold today is sold with a single compelling piece of software that most people buying the Wii want. Since most people buy games with their consoles the effective price may be closer to $200 than $250 as comparative consoles from Sony or Microsoft need at least one game purchased or they are effectively useless out the door on their own. Japan is different of course because theres no such bundle, though IIRC the used market is quite big there so the WS titles may be going through a lot of hands.

it is still Q3. The sales pick up at Q4....mark my words. Mothers love Wii Fit. :)

@ Squilliam

Point given. Thanks for the numbers, I wouldn't even know where to find those on VGChartz.
Actually I never thought that the Wii could be 'unvulnerable' - after all, expecially the 360 was a very healthy platform already when Wii started. So there was always going to be competition. I just disagree with your interpretations: IMO, the Wii drop is due to a very long first party software draught (after Mario Kart, I didn't buy another Wii game for more than a year). Even if the nongamer/new gamer market would be smaller than expected (as you assume), that would not be a reason why Wii shouldn't be able to outsell PS2 - it's not like the Wii is selling to nongamers only.

Not saying the Wii is going to outsell PS2; We'll have to wait and see how Nintendo's new first party games will do. 

Well I think maybe it could have another close year to 2008 with a 50$ price drop and better games because the wii honestly is a gem console for now with a handfull of games to pick from nothing more, but if late 2010 goes good with a few games just like the conduit and as good with a bunch of alright titles plus filling in the voids of games that almost don't even exist on wii it could sell good again, not that it isn't but its not crushing the competition as bad as before

so far it's sony having the most trouble cause sony is losing franchises to microsoft and activision probably isn't going to produce for sony due to they could invest their money for more profit otherwise and the pricedrop for the ps3 is inevitable but not all that soon because they got to sell something at 400$

No problems.

The point of this thread is to try to understand how the Wii is going to perform, since the sales are actually down it gives us something interesting to talk about. Its all wild speculation, but its refreshing to be able to include the Wii in a sales conversation that isn't about how many consoles have sold this generation overall or something boring like that.

What im really concerned about is whether or not Nintendo will be able to replicate the success of the big two: Wii Fit and Mario Kart. They are both stratospheric hits, but they both have limits.

The difference im thinking about between non gamers and gamers is that your non gamers have nothing holding them back from just picking up another console. Whereas your gamer market is more dicerning (spelling!) and they already have a games machine. So your offering has to be better than what they already have to get them to make the significant investment to upgrade. People still play their PS2s and even Xbox 1's today, however your typical Wii blue ocean customer doesn't have any prior investment and can litterally jump right in.

The other difference I was thinking about was that whilst the Wii is successfully pulling PS2 owners in, I was wondering what percentages etc of new gamers to PS2 to GC gamers exist on the Wii. Does the fact that a certain type of third party support is lacking on the Wii effect things here? Probably, but its hard to know the extent especially if the Wii sells out every week anyway.

So what hardware sales are you expecting for the week including MH3 launch?

Not trying to disparage Halo, but Wii Fit is much bigger than Halo 3. WF+ might even outsell Halo 3 and will certainly outsell ODST.

Several things about the NSMB point

Who knows if it'll be enough to bring the Wii back to 2008 levels.

The fact that there is already a 3d mario is irrelevant. That's like saying that GT5 will not have an effect because MGS4 has already been released

2d on handhelds is not the only practical solution. SM64:DS is one of the best (selling) games this generation

The draw is improved graphics, presumably a longer game, 4 player multiplayer, YOSHI! and anythign else that we don't yet know about the game

So you're saying that last Christmas the 360 arcade was effectively $80? (200 - 60 - 60) You and I both know that bundles can't hold a handle to an actual price cut. The Wii could be much cheaper if Nintendo needed to boost hardware sales