it was sequel to game already hit the platform and was heavily bundled.
well at least a price cut is almost confirmed for japan.
only games that haven't hit the platform yet will give it a boost, monster hunter 3 or dragon quest X (in 2 -3 years when it's released).

Wii Sports wasn't bundled in Japan.

Well I was off with my predictions.....

Thats great good for new wii owners.

I said Wii would be up in the second half of 2009 in Japan Tres Tres:

(Me) : "You do realize that Wii is probably going to perform much better in Japan in the second half of 2009 which can offset slightly down or flat sales in the Americas. Wii will also likely be up in Others this year.

Wii did 1.18m in Japan in 26 weeks over the second of 2008. That averages out to 44,600 or so.

This year, we know Wii will do say 90k for MH3 week, 90k for NSMB Wii week, 50k for Wii Fit Plus week, 50k for Samurai Warrior 3 week, 50k for Tales of Graces week, and 40k for FF: CC Week.

Thats 370k, assuming these titles release by late November (non Holiday weeks).

The fifteen non-holiday, non-big-release weeks can probably stay at 30k with the more constant stream. So you get 450k for those 15 weeks, 370k for the six big weeks, and then you have the big December. Wii can probably do 600k-800k with Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit +, NSMB, Samuari Warriors 3, Monster Hunter 3, FF: CC, Tales of Graces and whatever else as recent releases.

So...700k+ 370k+ 450k

That gives you 1.52m, which is up 20% from last year, and about 340,000. The new colors, a price cut and other games (Mario & Sonic? RE: DC?) may add a bit to it as well."

With Dragon Quest IX to force 2-2.5 million people into game stores (in addition to normal amounts of people visiting) I don't think its a stretch to expect hardware sales across the board to be up in July as some percentage of DQIX buyers will buy lots of other stuff. If the non holiday weeks are 21k x 15, Wii is still up in the second half of the year. Unless Wii rises dramatically on some sort of delayed WSR bump, there is probably going to be a price cut in Japan anyway which would push the level back to the 30k I had expected in the first place.

You have no room to talk your completely inconsistent on everything. You had Wii Sports Resort at 500k week one and almost 50k in Japan. Ail is the same, doom and gloom for Wii except somehow Wii Sports Resort was going to do 250k week one and push Wii hw to 40k from 18k.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2297005

I'm wrong a fair amount but I do have a consistent theory of how things will play out, since these companies don't take making projections of 26m/220m & 30m/180m lightly.

Didnt it have a bundle with a Blue Wii?

Or is that America?

@The Source: The thing is you seem too optimistic when Wii comes to play, and it wasn't an attack at all. I was wrong too (Although my SW expectations were right, but Nintendo only shipped 350k, so you cant sell more than whats available), but I'm now asking if you still believe Wii is going to be up YoY (Second Half). Do you still expect all those games to make the Wii jump or do you believe Wii has found a plateau? You expect Wii sales in Japan to offset the lack of sales in the West, is that a serious statement?

Plus you are expecting big Wii boosts from all those games, and you dont take into account that the sequel to the best selling console game this gen bundled with a new peripheral didn't have any effect at all in HW sales. Why dont you aim for the lowest end rather than expecting unreachable things. I admit I do get carried away by most of the people expecting big things, but the Wii craze has died in Japan, Wii has found it's plateau and I believe we will see it stabilize around there for the rest of the gen.

And how can you be so sure about a pricecut? Nintendo has managed their resources in a terrible way, and you can tell because of the situation that the Wii is in right now, with devs barely announcing anything for the console anymore in Japan, and sales not even rising significantly with the release of the biggest sequel out there. Interest is gone and those projections are illogical from Nintendo, since they expect Wii to sell based only on 1 game every 3 - 4 months. 26 million is impossible, as Wii is down everywhere not just in Japan. Sorry if I look like I'm going after you, but I don't think what you say is probable at all.

Wii sold 31k units on average in the 18 weeks from July to November 2008, while right now the Wii will start July 2009 with sales of 20k or less and during July 2008 Wii sold more than 40k in average. There's no new Wii games released in July save for Punch-Out which will most probably flop there, so sales could end up in the 13-15k at the end of July. Then the MH3 boost is questionable, but already the Wii will be down about 100k before MH3 releases.

All of this points to a very weak second half in Japan. Wii sold 1138k units second half 2008 in Japan, I expect it to end up selling less than 1000k in the second half of 2009, bringing the yearly total to about 1.5 - 1.6 million.

Same-platform sequels don't typically boost hardware very much trestres, you're reading too much into this one game release.

i mean worldwide, generally speaking since game it's going to be released worldwide.

either way the wii is 211$ in japan.

Maybe I am, but I think The Source is expecting too much from every single "big" Wii game. WSR may be an indication or may not. And not every one of those games will be releasing this year. ToG, SW3, FFCC:CB, RE:DSC, M&S 2, NSMBWii dont have a set date, and most will probably be 2010 or holiday games, not all before the Holiday season like he expects. So the boost will be significantly lower. I just say that he may be a bit on the overly optimistic side.

But we will see, I don't believe there is going to be a pricecut this year either.