So ODST is a mere 12 weeks away, I'm sure the game is almost complete, time for predictions!

Things to take into consideration:

• When Halo 3 Launched the userbase was just under 12 million, when ODST launches, the base will be above 32 million, 20 million more potential buyers than when Halo 3 launched, when it comes to prediciting FW sales this is something to think about.

• Halo 3 is due to break 10 million in the first week of August, 7 weeks before ODST launchs.

• ODST got a price hike, announced at E3, it will be priced the same as most other retail games, this is because its a much bigger game, and much more than just an expansion.

• Halo 3 gets around 1 million unique players every weekend, (just checked, 775k in the last 24 hours), the online is still very much alive for this game.

Lastly, don't underestimate Halo, Halo 3 has already exceeded a lot of peoples predictions and you'll be selling it short if you base your predictions around the fact its "just" an expansion.

First Week - 3.5 million (I'm holding back lol)

end of 09 - 5.5 million

lifetime - 9 million

Edited after looking at Halo3 sales...

First week ~2Million

End of 09 ~4Million

Lifetime ~7.5Million

Depends on advertisements. I think 9 million LTD is possible. This game is certainly gonna be huge, with the Reach beta, amongst other incentives. More than an expansion, imo.

2m+ week 1

I'm just going to admit that I'm no longer paying enough attention to this to make a sound prediction, but one thing is clear; pretty much every single prediction people have had about games, and especially "legs", this year has been overestimated.

The machines are just barely up in software sold, and as the competition among games is larger (more games that take their share of the pie), your average game sells less.

Machine - last year up to June 22nd - this year - difference.

Wii - 57M software - 61M - +4M - +7%

Ps3 - 28.2M - 29.7M - +1.5M - +5%

X360 - 34.9M - 38M - +3M - +8.5%

These increases are hardly anything at all.  Well, DS is up 11M (23%) to 58M, but the consoles are hardly up.

The "games pr console" is now finally dropping down to the 6th gen levels. For the Wii, it is looking like it, despite having a larger userbase, will sell less software in its 3rd year than the Ps2 did.

Well, on to the point again. Software is selling less than any analysist expected it to, and I think that we still haven't fully taken that in.

You mean exclusives? All exclusives on the PS3 will forever be overestimated. Sony fans like to "over" things. Overhype exclusives, overestimate legs, and sales in general for their exclusives.

I think if you look at multiplats, like Red Faction or Prototype, those games sold as well or better than expectated. As did Resident Evil 5, which was a huge success this year.

2.75 million first week.

4.25 million by end of 09

6.5 million lifetime.

No master Chief = lower sales, 6/7m lt.

Nintendo's predictions have been pretty good, it seems.

F/W probably about 2-2.5M (Seriously front loaded title)
End of 09 probably ~4M (Front loaded!!)
LTD probably about 4.5-6M (Like I said front loaded)

If reviews are over 9:

3 million

4.25 million

7 million (It might have a tough time selling with Reach coming next year)

reviews under 9:

2 million

3 million

5.5 million

BTW, EA is dumb for releasing Shift on the same day