I'm just going to admit that I'm no longer paying enough attention to this to make a sound prediction, but one thing is clear; pretty much every single prediction people have had about games, and especially "legs", this year has been overestimated.
The machines are just barely up in software sold, and as the competition among games is larger (more games that take their share of the pie), your average game sells less.
Machine - last year up to June 22nd - this year - difference.
Wii - 57M software - 61M - +4M - +7%
Ps3 - 28.2M - 29.7M - +1.5M - +5%
X360 - 34.9M - 38M - +3M - +8.5%
These increases are hardly anything at all. Well, DS is up 11M (23%) to 58M, but the consoles are hardly up.
The "games pr console" is now finally dropping down to the 6th gen levels. For the Wii, it is looking like it, despite having a larger userbase, will sell less software in its 3rd year than the Ps2 did.
Well, on to the point again. Software is selling less than any analysist expected it to, and I think that we still haven't fully taken that in.
