Uncharted 2:

+ Sequel to a successful game
+ Great media attention
+ Popular genre (shooters)
+ Easy to advertise (as in, it's easy to make it look great on TV)
+ Holiday boost

- Uncharted 1 sales deceptive; just like Resistance 1, there just wasn't much to buy back when it was released
- PS3 IPs doing average sales
- Crowded release date

= 250k or less first week, 1.5 million or less first year.

Will probably reach 2 million in the end, but not much more than that. It's gonna be a good game, but I don't think it has the star power. If heavily bundled and advertised, might reach 2.5 million.

  God of War 3:

+ Sequel to one of the most popular franchises on PS2
+ PS3 version not hampered by mass piracy of previous GOW versions (since GOW 1 and 2 were released at the height of PS2 piracy)
+ Only big budget game of its genre (the only other hack and slash game I can think of right now is Dynasty Warriors)
+ Extremely easy to advertise (as in, it's extremely easy to show what it's about)
+ Non-crowded release date

- Limited market (18+ only)
- Limited market within the limited market (a lot of 18+ people feel they're overstepping the violence and brutality)
- March release (slowest month of the year)

= 800k or more first week, 2 million or more first year.

Will probably reach 3.5 million or more in the end. I'm banking on the fact that the franchise is going to sell purely without any piracy for the first time.

You seriously overestimate the sales of God of War and underestimate Uncharted.

Uncharted 2 addresses all the shortcomings of the original by adding multiplayer coop and versus modes. Its the pick of E3 by many sites as the best PS3 exclusive coming up this year and its made by a developer with a history of top selling games right back to the PS1, a developer who has what it takes to make multiple 5M+ selling games. Because of the shortness of the game a lot of PS3 owners would have rented or bought the used version of the game and of the two its probably the most well known to the current PS3 userbase.

God of War 3 is going to be banned in several countries. Australia doesn't have an 18 classification for games so thats a definate and Germany also has a history of banning violent games too. Theres even a decent chance it will be banned in the U.K. as well and several big American retailers refuse to stock over controversial/violent games. Furthermore much of the sales of the game were after the PS3 was released to people who bought the PS2 for $149 or less and the game for less than half price. Its not going to find as much of its old userbase on a console thats $299 or more and the game at $60. Lastly the genre doesn't deliver big selling games, the best so far was what? Heavenly sword on the PS3? Devil May cry 4? Both did a million and little more.

GT5 will most likely outsell GT3?

You do realize GT3 sold over 14 million, are you thinking about GT4?

Didn't GT3 launch on a PS2 install base of around 12 Million and go on to sell well over 10M?

Correct me if I am wrong.

If so, then you're userbase argument falls flat on it's face.

Don't be ridiculous. Firstly, there's plenty of interest in the Sony forum, it just doesn't show because it's overshadowed by interest in other, better games. Secondly, VGC is not representative of the gaming world. Thirdly, NO games with anything resembling hype sell 350k lifetime. Lair sold 500k. Lair was crap on a disc. The controls sucked, the gameplay sucked, the framerate sucked, the lives system sucked, there was a tiny userbase on PS3, and the PS3 was failing. Despite all of this, it sold 500k. Haze sold even more. Haze sucked almost as much.

MAG will not suck on those levels- it is a 256 player online game with little to no lag, decent graphics and a variety of weapons. It won't set the world on fire, but it'll get reviews in the 80s. There is no way it can sell less than a million.

I want a PS3 owner to explain to me how they honestly think GT5 is going to sell 10 million copies. At this rate that's almost half of the installed base being a) interested in racing games, and b) willing to shell out the money for it.

Not even Halo, or respectively Killzone could reach that saturation percentage.

I agree with your other two predictions though. I just don't see how 1+ 2 = on your last one

1.) i just don't see how uncharted will set the world on fire. resistance 2 got 450k, yes, but it's an FPS, and it was heavily frontloaded. i'm seeing uncharted going that route, slightly less first week, but more sales down the line. it just doesn't have the star power. don't go by uncharted 1 sales. it's the bundling and the fact that there just weren't enough exclusives to go by at that time.

2.) gran turismo 5 is going to sell more simply because it has included two entire franchises extra in the game. you do realize that NASCAR is the second most watched sport in the united states? the user base argument is nonsense. gran turismo will sell, regardless of current user base, regardless of when it releases. gt is one of those franchises, just like mario, just like halo. how many xbox consoles did the original halo require to sell the way it did?

3.) god of war 3 is going to sell quite well, and i'm banking on the ps3's lack of pirated games. you do realize that when the god of war games were released, it was the height of piracy on the system? and despite that, gow 1 still sold 3.3 million and gow 2 still sold 2.5 million (on this site anyway)? now you have a ridiculously hyped and advertised sequel on a console that doesn't have piracy. i'm expecting something large.

Because Uncharted 2 might win GOTY awards, and it already won a shitload of "Best of E3" awards, and the game is really impressive. I wasn't impressed by Resistance 2 at all.

Fairly respectable predictions. I'd say GoW3 lower and Uncharted 2 higher.

I agree Uncharted sales were deceptive like Resistance 2 but not to the same extent. There were a few decent games between launch and October 2007 when Uncharted came out.

there were several good releases in between, but i count no big budget exclusives (ratchet was released at the same time frame).

So what your are saying is that all the people who refused to shell out 50$ to buy GoW 1 or 2 and decided to pirate it are going to shell out 460$ to play it this time around? The whole pirate thing doesn't old water, every game had to deal with it on the PS2 yet I don't see sequel on the PS3 selling better. Another thing too, what you see as the heigth of piracy was alsos the height of game sale on that platform.

As for hype, internet hype is cheap for a reason, because it has limited effect on sale, everybody who frequent gaming website is already award of GoW 3 existence and that the primary job of advertisement (contrary to popular belief advertisement don't make people buy stuff they are not interested in)

Not to mention that the game sold mostly in the US (2.5m out of 3.2m for the first) and that where the PS3 is doing the worst