I'm bored. So here goes.. When I say "or more" or "or less", I just mean a +/- 100k.

Uncharted 2:

+ Sequel to a successful game
+ Great media attention
+ Popular genre (shooters)
+ Easy to advertise (as in, it's easy to make it look great on TV)
+ Holiday boost

- Uncharted 1 sales deceptive; just like Resistance 1, there just wasn't much to buy back when it was released
- PS3 IPs doing average sales
- Crowded release date

= 250k or less first week, 1.5 million or less first year.

Will probably reach 2 million in the end, but not much more than that. It's gonna be a good game, but I don't think it has the star power. If heavily bundled and advertised, might reach 2.5 million.

 

God of War 3:

+ Sequel to one of the most popular franchises on PS2
+ PS3 version not hampered by mass piracy of previous GOW versions (since GOW 1 and 2 were released at the height of PS2 piracy)
+ Only big budget game of its genre (the only other hack and slash game I can think of right now is Dynasty Warriors)
+ Extremely easy to advertise (as in, it's extremely easy to show what it's about)
+ Non-crowded release date

- Limited market (18+ only)
- Limited market within the limited market (a lot of 18+ people feel they're overstepping the violence and brutality)
- March release (slowest month of the year)

= 800k or more first week, 2 million or more first year.

Will probably reach 3.5 million or more in the end. I'm banking on the fact that the franchise is going to sell purely without any piracy for the first time.



Gran Turismo 5:

+ It's Gran Turismo, with everything fans ever wanted included in the game
+ WRC and NASCAR included in game (presumably, and if so, that's two more sets of fans)
+ Prologue has massive sales so far
+ (If) released outside holidays (no need to compete with rival racing games)

- A lot of competition in the genre
- Far too long in development
- (If) released during holidays (many racing games already slated for this holiday season)

= (If released outside holidays) 3 million or less first week, 7 million or less first year.
= (If released during holidays) 2.5 million or less first week, 6.5 million or less first year.

Will surely reach 10 million, and will most likely outsell GT3 if released with a price cut.

 

MAG

+ The concept is massive
+ The concept is massive for the most popular genre right now (FPS)
+ Developer is known for delivering good games
+ Holiday boost

- New IP
- Name doesn't inspire a franchise
- Crowded release date
- Plenty of competition from the same genre, up against a couple of huge franchises (Modern Warfare 2 and Halo 3 ODST)
- Online heavy game (possibly online only), and Sony's servers haven't been the best lately.

= 100k or less first week, 800k or less first year.

Will likely not get any more than 1.5 million, if servers hold up without lag.

You're saying Uncharted 2 will sell like inFamous first week?
My prediction is 500k first week.

your also forgetting that during the hoildays even tho it has a lot of games coming out theres a lot of people buying games . More people in shops more people in stores more people talking more people buying. thats why games come out during that time.

Uncharted 2 should sell 500k WW first week

I'm saying Uncharted 2 will sell like Resistance 2. I haven't seen enough of InFamous yet.

you have to understand that sequels to two of the most popular shooters ever made are coming out this holiday season (Halo 3 and Modern Warfare 2).

but you're right, more people will buy during the holiday season. that's why i have it pegged at 250k. if they didn't release it during the holiday, it would be far less. let's face it, uncharted is a good game, but it doesn't have the star power. 

Apart from the Uncharted stuff, it is mostly sound. Uncharted sold great due to word of mouth

i still think uncharted sales that you see on this site are deceptive, simply because there just weren't that many exclusives for ps3 back when it was released, just like resistance 1.

we saw good sales for R1, and we saw mediocre sales for R2. we see good sales for U1, i expect mediocre sales for U2.

word of mouth undoubtedly sold plenty of copies, but i doubt it was responsible for more than 100k. i think it was a combination of the bundling and the lack of quality exclusives at the time of release that sold the larger bulk.

The key was not the opening, it was the legs

Halo 3 ODST is a 360 exclusive, so I don't see why that would affect anything, and Modern Warfare 2 is a multiplat FPS- I'm not sure many people would think "Hmmm, I want Uncharted 2, but I'll get Modern Warfare 2 instead". That's absolutely right with MAG, and it is why I am not buying MAG, but Uncharted? It's an Action Adventure TPS Platformer. It won't be cannibalised by MW2.

The original Uncharted had a ridiculously low opening week because the street date was broken. It sold over 100k for a good 9 weeks, and went on to cross 2 million. And it's still selling. And there may have been little competition (though having said that, there was CoD4 and Halo 3 as competition, but like I said, that doesn't matter), but there were also fewer PS3 owners. And yes, userbase does matter to a certain extent. That is why the 360 outsells the PS3 on the majority of multiplat titles.

PS2 was a 120 million console and GT4 sold 10 million.

PS3 is a 60 million consoles, so It's impossible for GT5 to sell 10 million I believe. I think 7.5 mill.


MAG is set for a big flop. 250,000 lifetime. Just look how uninterested the people are in the Sony forum.