the problem is that if third party publishers believe that the PS3 will take the lead in a couple of years, they'll keep developing for the PS3. So long as analysts (who really have no idea about anything) keep making these predictions, then the publishers who pay big money for their analysis will continue to make PS3 titles while putting token effort onto the Wii.

From there there are really two scenarios. Either enough TP's do that that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and PS3 takes over, or all those third parties lose millions on their PS3 projects and move development away from it.

While the PS3 victory scenario is still possible, I think that anyone who actually thinks it's the most likely result is a little bit crazy. I hope to see in 3 years a whole lot of analysts losing their jobs...

MikeB said: @ naznatips In fact, there is only once in history that the strongest console one the generation and that's the SNES. The Snes wasn't very powerful, it was about on par with the Sega MegaDrive and much weaker specced than the Neo Geo. So your "rule" still seems to apply. No seriously, IMO the Snes won because of: 1) Strong popular franchises -> Mario, Zelda, Star Fox, Metroid, and Donkey Kong. 2) Brand recognition and reputation -> The NES was the best sold game console at the time. 3) Cheap. Now if I compare this to the Playstation 3 situation, there's only a lot of work to do for point 3. But we also know, people are willing to pay for better specs (higher specced 60GB PS3 vs 20 GB PS3 sales), so Sony can aim to educate people on the advantages of better specifications before the PS3 makes it to mass market pricing.

 If you have to educate your potential buyers on what your product can do, you've already lost.  Any product that requires edumacation to convince people to buy it is not going to win over the non techie crowd.  

 I agree, it makes the most sense...  There won't be an HD Nintendo console until the end of the Wii's life/beginning of the next console race.  Does Nintendo need to release it's system at the same time as the other's?  No... it could actually release a new system a year or two after the other guys have theirs out.  As long as Nintendo convinces 3rd parties to continue making Wii games (and really that shouldn't be hard to do, all they have to do is point at the PS2 as an example) and then offer the cheapest system for game development for the follow up console and 3rd parties should pick the successor over the competition.

I have said it before and I will say it again. The Source is by far the best sales analyst in the industry and he doesn't get paid for it. The lack of foresight by these so called "professional"analyst amazes me. Anyone still predicting the PS3 to win this generation is either a fanboy, insane, or mentally challenged. How can these guys continually get paid for their opinions? I have seen several more accurate predictions in various games forums. The Source needs to submit his resume to some of these companies, I can't imagine what he'd get paid for actually being on the mark the majority of the time.

@ DarkNight_DS

Can you actually show anything which implies that people who own HDTVs are less likely to buy a Wii as it is currently configured?

My personal experience is that more people with HDTVs own a Wii than an XBox 360, which I understand is (probably) not generally true because more people (in North America) currently own the XBox 360, but this implies that there may be (is) no benefit for Nintendo to move to a Wii HD.

While I do think your scenario is highly likely, I doubt it will happen in the next 4 years.  The number of people with HD sets is still pretty low.

 I would guess that the next iteration of Nintendo consoles will support 720p, MAYBE 1080i, but I'm not so sure.  Nintendo seems to be (at least to this point) vindicated on its stance of ease of development over technological prowess, and this will carry over to their next console if they remain successful.  1080p development isn't just a higher resolution, you are pretty much required to implement intricate shaders and extremely high polygon counts (relatively speaking) for that type of resolution to be realistically utilized as HD.  All of this means more development time, more development costs, and more diffuculty in development as well. 

Only Sony-fans believe PS3 can win this gen. Sane people know it will be Wii.

My prediction,
at the end of 2007:

Wii - 18 mill
X360 - 16 mill
PS3 - 7.5 mill

at the end of the war, 2011:

Wii - 80 mill
X360 - 55 mill
PS3 - 50 mill

@ Slimebeast

^agreed MikeB, but anyone who thinks PS3 has a more likely chance of "winning" this gen should also be considered blinkered, i still haven't written the PS3 off as failed as i can see the massive brand power of playstation bringing it into a comfortable second place, but although i think it still has a chance at 1st, it's quite a small chance.

the 360 however has, in my opinion, a miniscule chance at 1st, and will most likely be last.