divide it all by 2 and that might be close

Ok taking a look at the sales history of God of War, Gran Turismo and Uncharted 1 and considering the developers/franchise history heres my take.

God of War 3 650k first week, 1.8M LTD (On the rumoured 40M development budget will probably lose money). My reasoning is that its been a slow burn PS2 title and probably sold because its one of the few decent PS2 games still out on the market. Also its hardcore so it will see a low first week to LTD ratio, the fact that its so violent will limit its appeal. Also hack n slash games never really sell that well overall and the violence will prevent bundles. I also expect this game to be banned in Australia and Germany at least.

Uncharted 2 800k first week, 4.2M LTD. This is a game that a lot of people like, its a wider appeal game than God of War 3 and the online multiplayer looks inovative and well implemented so that should draw a wider base of people. Furthermore the developer Dirty Dog (Did I get that right LOL) has a history of being able to develop wide appeal games.

Gran Turismo 5. I would expect 300k first week Japan (Smaller userbase than PS2) and double the Prologue for first week sales and 750K for others and 350k Americas so about 1.4M first week sales. LTD sales I would expect to be 600k for Japan, 1.5M Americas and 5M others for a total of about 7M.

Uncharted 2: 620k (FW) 3.2 mil (LT)
God of War 3: 790k (FW) 4.3mil (LT)
Gran Turismo 5: 1.2mil (FW) 6mil (LT)

Too high! Now people will say these were "expectations", and the games will be considered flops! >_<

God of War III: 700-800k FW, 3-4 million LT

Uncharted 2: 550-650k FW, 3 million LT

Gran Turismo 5: 2-2.5 million FW, 8.5-9 million LT.

-first Gran Turismo on a next gen console (unless you count handhelds, in which case Portable Ops came before MGS4 anyway)

-MGS4 was no more western friendly than MGS3.

-More cars

-Day/night

-Online

-Damage

-Connectivity with PSP version

Your userbase argument is moot.

Also, GTA IV sold 2.5 million first week on PS3, and it was a first day multiplat with promised exclusive DLC on the 360. GT5 is exclusive, the series is almost as big, why can't it reach the same numbers?

Kantor you noob idiot, stop dissing Uncharted or I will have to send you another wall post complaining about your lack of intelligence.

Uncharted 2 will sell 4M because I said so.

Edit: I mean noob idiot in the nicest way possible, if I could I would say that Kantor loves sheep more than me and thats probably the biggest insult a New Zealander could hurl at anyone.

In the meantime... KZ2 is still lagging under the 2 millions....

What does KZ2 have to do with the 3 games mensioned?

Just a quick reminder so that people set more realistic estimations.

here's mine.

GOW3 will sold 650k FW, 2-2.5 million LT

Uncharted 2 800k FW, 2.5-3 million LT

GT5 2.5 million FW, 10-12 million LT