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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Malstrom: Microsoft has lost control of the NATAL hype

^ Giggles!



Tease.

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I'm not sure what to think of this article, I do know that I want to buy the Blue Ocean Disruption book though.

The man was right on quite a few accounts but I'm not really into the whole conspiracy theories thing



 

All the people answering gamelover about first party and motion controls are linking numbers that compare past sales. But those sales happened on very different markets for the Wii and the PS3, and as such they don't prove what could happen when
- the extended market becomes a field of contention between all competitors. Up to this point Nintendo has been almost alone in tapping it, save for a handful of titles
- motion controls are tentatively proposed to the traditional core market as an advanced form of control

None of these two seem to have happened in a significant amount, up to this point. So past sales data are a very poor indicator of how these will unfold, and how Sony will be able to push them as a first party developer.



"All you need in life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain

"..." - Gordon Freeman

Realism just talking facts but i do like the part of "Sony is playing checkers instead of chess" that is so true! Microsoft are indeed a company good at battling disruption techniques but whoah they havent come a across a giant like nintendo before. Microsoft are going to be jumping into their own graves before they've known they have dug it yet! It's fantastic to see this play by Nintendo panning out so clearly for some but yet so dismissively and blindly by others absolutely fantastic stuff. Business mind games at its best and used so effectively people just don't see it not even microsoft have been able to completely grasp this one because it's on a totally different level from anything they have encountered before.



"...the best way to prepare [to be a programmer] is to write programs, and to study great programs that other people have written. In my case, I went to the garbage cans at the Computer Science Center and fished out listings of their operating system." - Bill Gates (Microsoft Corporation)

"Hey, Steve, just because you broke into Xerox's house before I did and took the TV doesn't mean I can't go in later and take the stereo." - Bill Gates (Microsoft Corporation)

Bill Gates had Mac prototypes to work from, and he was known to be obsessed with trying to make Windows as good as SAND (Steve's Amazing New Device), as a Microsoft exec named it. It was the Mac that Microsoft took for its blueprint on how to make a GUI.

 

""Windows [n.] - A thirty-two bit extension and GUI shell to a sixteen bit patch to an eight bit operating system originally coded for a four bit microprocessor and sold by a two-bit company that can't stand one bit of competition.""

Avinash_Tyagi said:
gamelover2000 said:
E3 2009 is remarkable because it clearly illustrates how the console battlefield has now shifted from sight and power to touch and interface. Cleverly, Nintendo has shifted the battlefield to their favor. A battlefield of motion controls is, essentially, going to be a battle of first party games. And we know, of the three, which company has the upper hand on that.


Sony?

No Nintendo, Biggest Sony game ever was GT3 on PS2 at 14.87 million WW and I believe it was a bundled game, not to mention the PS2 sold over 120 million so less than 10% attach rate, by comparison Mario Kart, Wii Fit, Wii Play and Wii Sports have all sold more, on a console with only 50.65 million sold, so much more than 10% attach rate

 

I agree that Nintendo has the best in-house talent of the three, but using attach rates isn't the best way to illustrate it.

There were not 120 million PS2's sold when GTA3 launched. There were around 13 or 14 million. The same can be said for GT3, which was never bundled.



 

Consoles owned: Saturn, Dreamcast, PS1, PS2, PSP, DS, PS3

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People who expect Sony or Microsoft to do more with their motion controls are probably going to be disapointed (at least early on) ...

Regardless of whether you think Sony or Microsoft has better first party developers, they are 5 years behind Nintendo with implementing motion controls in game and (as many third party efforts have shown us) this has quite a large learning curve associated with it. To make matters worse, while there are some games that this has worked well with, any game of any complexity and cost that is developed for these add-on motion control systems will most likely be designed to be played with a conventional controller; and this generally does not translate into motion controlls adding much to the gameplay experience, and (for the most part) it only makes for a different and not better experience.

When you have some studios that are completiting their third or fourth motion controlled game that is designed around the unique capabilities that motion controls provide releasing games against a studio producing their first motion controlled game that has to also be played on a conventional controller there is a massive advantage for the more experienced developer.

 



^You say they are 5 years behind Nintendo, but that's quite irrelevant if the curve maxes in 4 to 6 months.
Can you actually show evidence of a slow-raising curve for quality of implementation of motion controls on the Wii? Wii Sports is still the best example and is a launch title. FPS controls implementation is quite trivial. Latest titles don't seem to me like they show any better use of the motion controls than launch or first year titles.
Up to this point the best progress there has been in motion controls has been learning when to not use them.

Now, the issue of bridge titles allowing both kinds of control has some merit. But you might as well put WM+ in there too, and wonder how the next Zelda will control.



"All you need in life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain

"..." - Gordon Freeman

WereKitten said:
All the people answering gamelover about first party and motion controls are linking numbers that compare past sales. But those sales happened on very different markets for the Wii and the PS3, and as such they don't prove what could happen when
- the extended market becomes a field of contention between all competitors. Up to this point Nintendo has been almost alone in tapping it, save for a handful of titles
- motion controls are tentatively proposed to the traditional core market as an advanced form of control

None of these two seem to have happened in a significant amount, up to this point. So past sales data are a very poor indicator of how these will unfold, and how Sony will be able to push them as a first party developer.

Sony lacks any install base for its motion controller, so they have to hope that they are able to field software that can push the wand out the door and also push Sony console sales, however their first generation stuff will be dealing with Wii games, utlizing the Wii motion plus, from developers who are very used to the Wii system at that point.  In addtion most causals don't own a PS3, so that means that Sony will have to entice them to buy a system almost $500 to play casual games which may not even have the same quality as the Wii games availible.  



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Cueil said:
I think we all can see... do a tweet search for Project Natal and you'll see it's not Microsoft creating the hype anymore. Even this stupid drawn out crap about the hype of Natal is hyping the damn thing. I personally feel it has the potential to change the way I view my games, but it also opens up the door for a host of other things. I also agree that the UI that is there now is just to much for the common users. I think that Microsoft can simplify it drasticly with some question when a user first launches their system. They can take out a bunch of the worthless stuff(worthless to the user not us) and push up front the things that the user would find more interesting. Things like Netflix and the latest movies and tv series could be right up there in front of them... do they game online? No? Take away half of the UI....

Not only are internet enabled tvs coming out this yr but motion controlled ones aswell (next yr). See Today show from yesterday.

There is going to be alot of multifunction competition built right into the tvs of tommorow so Netflixs and motion controlled menus will simply not be enough to compete against Hitachi, etc.



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

megaman79 said:
Cueil said:
I think we all can see... do a tweet search for Project Natal and you'll see it's not Microsoft creating the hype anymore. Even this stupid drawn out crap about the hype of Natal is hyping the damn thing. I personally feel it has the potential to change the way I view my games, but it also opens up the door for a host of other things. I also agree that the UI that is there now is just to much for the common users. I think that Microsoft can simplify it drasticly with some question when a user first launches their system. They can take out a bunch of the worthless stuff(worthless to the user not us) and push up front the things that the user would find more interesting. Things like Netflix and the latest movies and tv series could be right up there in front of them... do they game online? No? Take away half of the UI....

Not only are internet enabled tvs coming out this yr but motion controlled ones aswell (next yr). See Today show from yesterday.

There is going to be alot of multifunction competition built right into the tvs of tommorow so Netflixs and motion controlled menus will simply not be enough to compete against Hitachi, etc.


No but a system that can turn your Sanyo into a better version of those TVs can earn many points for consumers.  Also you're talkinga bout HDMI 1.4 complinant devices... and if you have been following it you'll know it's retarded... 4 diffrent cables each has diffrent abilities.