Honestly, I don't know ... The New Super Mario Bros. has been a monster but I don't know if Super Paper Mario can follow in its footsteps
I'm with HappySquirrel... I just don't know if SPM is going to have the runaway success of NSMB, but I think it will be a sleeper hit that a lot of people buy and love. I'm going to go with "moderate hit".
Somewhere between 1 million and 5 million worldwide... Best case would be like 2.5 million in Japan, 1.5 million Americas, 1 million Other. But that won't happen... I'd say...2.5-3.0 million worldwide...1.1 million Japan, 800,000 Americas, 600,000 others. I see it as a cult classic. April NPD will say like 400,000 month one in Japan like 350,000... But then it sells 100,000 a month for a while worldwide.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
These are the numbers i expect too...
I'll guess 2.5 million worldwide LTD. 750k in europe and japan while north america hits a single mill
Nobody is crazy enough to accuse me of being sane.
I'm betting it will sell similar to Wii play/sports. It is a title that people are waiting for and the Wii hasn't had a big seller in awhile.
I think SPM will not sell more than Wii Sport/Play.
It won't sell consoles... no nintendo game right now could sell consoles (demand > supply). I think this is why metriod prime 3 was pushed back (nintendo knows its going to kick ass and wants it to sell consoles). I think the game will hit 3.5 million world wide.
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Bet with disolitude: Left4Dead will have a higher Metacritic rating than Project Origin, 3 months after the second game's release. (hasn't been 3 months but it looks like I won :-p )