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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 sales need to increase by 45% in the rest of the year...

TheSource on 08 June 2009

I'm actually more surprised at their PSP hardware projections.

April-May 2008 PSP HW Sales - 1.73m Worldwide

April-May 2009 PSP HW Sales - 1.17m Worldwide

 

PSP Go isn't out until October, it costs $250, and most of the big portable games are on DS this year.

PSP sold 883,000 in from June 1 to September 27 2008 in Japan which is about 220,000/month.

Right now PSP is doing 25k-35k/week in Japan, so I would expect 500,000 in the four months ending September 2009 in Japan.

 

PSP will probably be down 1m for the fiscal year in Japan, 1m in the Americas, and 1m in Others even with the PSP Go. The 3m drop from 14.11m shipped last fiscal year is only a 20% drop though, which is pretty good considering PSP is down 33% so far in the fiscal year and Sony forecast growth for the year.

 

Its looking like PSP sales could be down ~45% in both the Americas and Japan through the PSP Go launch. That should ensure a bigger October, and a flat Nov-Dec. But I would imagine sales would drop from early 2009 levels in the first three months of 2008.

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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saicho on 08 June 2009
Rainbird said:
HappySqurriel said:
Million said:
Squilliam said:
The PS3 is going to go seriously downwards YOY for the month of June, I would say the task may be impossible even with a $100 price cut and GT5.

Bull , there is clearly more demand for the PS3 than there is the 360 , this is evident with the PS3 being able to sell within range of the 360 with a serious price disadvantage. GT5 is the biggest simulation racing game on any platform and PS3 sales improve substantialy with every price cut , a price cut in our economic conditions make a price cut much more neccasery.

Wouldn't it be fair to say that the only reason that the PS3 has been able to stay within a similar sales range as the XBox 360 is because Microsoft has been unable to make inroads into the Japaneese market?

While I don't agree with Million's sentiment, I do believe he speaks in terms of WW weekly sales, where the PS3 had its peak in Japan, selling at 13k or so, around its best time, more units than the 360, and when when taken into the context of the worldwide numbers, 13k is not really that much.

I'm not saying Japan is not of importance, but it's certainly not that important.

EDIT: Actually, I want to expand on that.

Currently, the gap between the 360 and PS3 WW weekly are shrinking, with the two being closer and closer. All while the PS3 sales in Japan have been lowering, meaning the importance Japan had for the PS3 is currently even more insignificant than before, and the PS3 still holds up.

Actually the gap was shrinking a few weeks ago and last couple weeks it's growing again after PS3 sale in Japan drop back to 10K level.

 

On Topic: I wouldn't be surprised if Sony lowers the projection through the year.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

Kantor on 08 June 2009
Arius Dion said:
Rainbird said:
Arius Dion said:
Its not gonna happen. As someone recently mentioned Sony never reach their projections. Also in the US PS3 sales are usually -50k a week, Japan has them creeping back down to single digit territory, and EU is about where US numbers are. The software mentioned minus GoW3, will certainly provide a boost, but one capable of turning -45% into +60%? nah.

Sony did meet their last PS3 projection, so you'd think they actually know what they are doing with this one.


So your saying they will meet their projections of 13m this year?

Not necessarily, but they wouldn't randomly project a 30% increase in sales after a holiday season and three months that were down YoY. They have something up their sleeves- contrary to popular belief, Sony are not stupid.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Leonidus on 08 June 2009

This Fall Sony's gaming division should do good, and I expect a $100 price cut at least, probably around September time.

The PSP Go will be a gem for Sony. It's probably cheaper to produce than the current PSP's and it retails for about £100 more. This means that once promotion and R&D costs are made up for, Sony should be making around £100 profit off each PSP Go this fall. This should be able to offset PS3 losses unless the price cut is a massive one.

Software from Sony should also make them alot of money this fall, especially if GT5 launches. This again is very capable of offsetting PS3 losses as I believe SCE made a profit last fall (I think).

Production costs, especially with a slim should lower quite substantially meaning the loss per PS3 for Sony shouldn't be a huge amount. Also with a price drop alot more PS3's may need to be produced, again leading to reduced production costs maybe through the likes of bulk buying etc.

So, really it seems to me that Sony can cut the PS3 price by a decent amount and still make a healthy profit, especially if the PSP Go takes off.

After this Autumn the SCE division IMO will not post a loss for quite some time.



Leonidus on 08 June 2009

And my last post means that if Sony can afford a good price cut, and not leave it too late...then their target is achievable.



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Kantor on 08 June 2009
FastFord58 said:

Here is what will happen:

 

They will cut the price of the current PS3 by 100$

 

BUT

 

Will introduce the "ultimate" model. This will be slim and remove BDRoM and so it is totally run on digital distribution.  Also, it will only work on a smaller TV. They will price this must have model at $599 US and $599 Euro, because it is the same currency in Sony Land.

Lol.

The ultimate model also will be unable to play games, because all of the parts will be taken out and replaced with those of a grill.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Rainbird on 08 June 2009
kowenicki said:
@rainbird

the gap between 360 and PS3 may have been shrinking... but it isnt now, also I think the gap was shrinking in numerical terms rather than the actual percentage difference.

Yes, I realized. Damn my memory. But even so, Japan is hardly all that relevant...