I think that Microsoft sees the Natal as the Xbox 720- but not in the traditional sense of releasing a brand new console but rather an update to their existing one.  In order to do that they can’t treat it like it was just a simple accessory- that is why peripherals like the Xbox Vision camera and EyeToy have never really taken off.  Microsoft has made mention of forward compatibility before, and I didn’t really understand what they meant until now.  Here is my prediction for how Natal will change the Xbox 360 brand when it launches (Fall 2010):

-Microsoft will release a slim 360 for 2 reasons:  

1) They have continued to reduce the chipset size allowing for cost reduction and internal modifications (possibly expanded internal memory storage)

2) They want to give the system a fresh new look (as well as to help remove the public perception of RROD associated with the old models)- a fresh start if you will

-They will upgrade the current SKU system:  The current $199 Arcade SKU will be upgraded for increased storage- possibly expanding the internal flash memory from 512MB to 16GB (allowing enough space for DLC, Hard Drive Installs, etc- although still limited, allows for more complete functionality at a lower cost than an external drive).  But heres the kicker- Microsoft will bundle the Natal camera with every pro system for $299.  This is important b/c it will allow them to immediately build the Natal userbase outside of the (by then) 40 million + users of the traditional setup.  I predict the standalone camera will retail for between $70 and $100 (based on the fact that a similar 3DV camera was going to retail for $70 back in 2008 before Microsoft bought them out- and the emphasis in interviews by execs and developers like Molyneux that the software algothrims involved in the motion tracking/facial/voice recognition was really the key to how it works). 

The way I see it, instead of a $100 price drop on the pro next year, bundle Natal and revitalize the console and its market audience

-Now heres the hard part, getting the current userbase to make the investment into Natal (if they are interested in what it offers) by offering a wide variety of games that support the technology from the get-go.  Here is what I think we will see:

-Halo: Reach- this is the big hardcore title for next fall, the uber Xbox title if you will (I am more than willing to bet that it will sell upwards of 10 million).  The game will of course be designed for a traditional controller, but allowing for compatibility for use w/ the natal motion system will be key to selling the natal while also helping to expand the audience of the series- i think both microsoft and bungie know this.  How they are able to design a control scheme is anyone’s guess (although I have some ideas)- but incorporating head tracking (enhanced peripheral vision/checking around corners) and voice activated Com features (better communication in MP) could be impressive features for players who prefer to use traditional controllers.  Check Johnny Lees videos for ideas on headtracking (the guy is currently working on the Natal project):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd3-eiid-Uw

-A racing title that takes advantage of the new control scheme.  I see 2 possibilities, a new Project Gotham Racing designed from the ground up for Natal (we’ve heard rumors of Turn 10 taking over the franchise), or Forza 3 repatched with motion compatilibility (like the Burnout demonstration demo but with much more fine tuning/polish)

-A wide array of sports titles that support Natal- im talking everything from Madden to Tiger Woods to Fight Night to Tennis.  I could see skateboarding franchises (Skate/Tony Hawk franchises) and snowboarding (Shaun White/Stoked franchises) really benefiting thru the use of 3d mapped full body motion; with Peter Moore over at EA, im sure he would more than willing to push these features in some of their products

-Exercise titles involving aerobics/yoga/karate etc; essentially Microsoft’s answer to Wii Fit

-Milo and Kate- if done right, could be a unique interesting experience that could attract a lot of consumers that would not have considered a 360 otherwise (imagine a kiosk demo at your local electronics store)

-Rare titles:  anyone else wondering why we haven’t heard anything from Rare over E3?  Peter Molyneux (the new MGS Europe director) confirmed that they are working on Natal related projects-which makes me believe they will have titles ready for Natal’s launch. 

-smaller XBL titles that use the body motion tracking in clever ways, hence helping to promote their ultimate goals for digital distribution

Overall, I think that if Microsoft can play their cards right, the Natal launch can be a big success for them.  There is already a lot of buzz around it from the media (both TV and radio around where I live in the states have been talking about it).  The key will be showing strong support at its launch and advertising well (something we can all agree Microsoft does well), while not forgetting the core gamer- meaning that most games will be playable with just the standard controller.  Some would say that Microsoft is better off saving it till the next console generation but that is a silly notion to me.  This generation is not nearly halfway through- and with the economy the way it is, expanding the lifecycle and profits is key. Even Shane Kim (Microsoft Game Studios Director) has said that the 360's lifecycle will extend thru 2015.  The original XBOX introduced XBOX LIVE three years after its launch, and just last year the 360 was updated to include the NXE with all its new features and layout.  We see all of the integrations into LIVE that are being added (facebook, twitter, last.fm, 1 vs 100, game-shows, etc), so why couldn't Microsoft redefine their console again?  

What are you thoughts?  How do you think Microsoft will approach Project Natal?

I've thought the same thing. Don't change the console enhance and repackage it. You continue to have your user base and attract others using a Natal pack in. It's basically the same route Nintendo went with the Wii and DSi and what Apple does with the iPod. It would be like a new console launch, without a new console.

exactly, the key is to not treat it as an accessory, but be proactive in getting it into peoples homes. If it is good tech and can make fun interesting game experiences, why not do it now. Developers will have to start thinking outside the box for how to design games that can be played in this way.

Either way, they already have traditional hardcore titles being pumped out by their 1st and 3rd parties, why not try something new to supplement the library?

An interesting take ...but can Microsoft make it work that way.

To accomplish this it has to convince two groups -- consumers and software producers.


Mike from Morgantown


And maybe I am not seeing it, but the comparisons to the Wii (GC BC compatable) and DSi (DS BC compartable) are spurious because the first is a completely different console and the second is a different model with added features.

yes i think that this is possible and ms is not dead yet

you dont consider the DSI a separate console? I have always felt if a consoles built in features precluded prior versions from playing games that are designed for the new version its a new console. now if it is an accessory that does this the line is not crossed as accessories can be added to the old console. 

honestly I see natal as  no more then another accessory that you will buy if you want.   

as for a 360 slim it could happen, but the slide on HD will still be the same size  so it might look funky.  in all honesty the most i expect is reduction in size of power brick, cleaning up of internal components, increase the size of the HD and elimination of  any models that do not have HDs.    basic to say within the next year and a half you will only have the pro/elite or they might change the naming and give the arcade and hd and call them  pro/new name.

the rest of the hopes for this are too costly on may fronts, the idea this gen has been and will be to mitigate costs, and you do that by keeping the same base hardware (allow cost reductions) and allow teams to use art assets developed early in the gen and refine them.  making changes like the OP is suggesting causes to many problems for devs, and is a bad idea (hardware increases only)

Natal for it to be any kind of success must be bundled with all 360 versions upon release and must be sold separately for no more then the cost of a game.  Games wont need to be forced to have this kind of interface and if they are the games will suffer for it, MS should offer incentives to make games for natal and at first im betting more XBL games will take advantage of it .

honestly i feel it will be a nice gimmick that will draw some people in, but hold off my enthusiasm for it until its out. I do not see this changing the 360s fortunes. also when was MS decleared dead nightmare? if I remember right this has been their best year so far. I feel that all the consoles will be on the market by themselves until 2012 at minimum (if you check my post history i have been claiming this since 07) if they come out before then it will cause a gaming market crash.   

sorry this should have been two posts one at you mike and one at the OP

@goddog, i see where you are coming from, and i agree that microsofts goal for the gen is to make back the money they have lost. But who says they cant do both

- Instead of dropping the price of the Arcade SKU (currently at $199), and take a further loss, why not add value and functionality to it at minimal cost (flash memory being added for hard drive related features). they are already the cheapest console on the market, their goal should be to differentiate themselves. Hence, for gamers that are looking for a cheap alternative for core gaming, yet wouldnt consider buying an arcade b/c they felt it was "gimped," they now have a viable option. In addition, they allow for further price reductions for minimal entry in the future. Microsofts goal should be to sell the Arcade SKU at a small profit and I think they can do that with these changes (assuming cost reductions have occurred in the 2 years they have kept the price at $199).

- as far as the PRO SKU goes, microsoft must justify the $100 difference between the arcade unit based on the inclusion of a 60 GB hard-drive and a component cables. At the same time they must justify a possible price parity with an inevitable $299 PS3 (which pretty much plays most of the same games but also acts as a blu-ray player). Do they cut its price? no, b/c then they would be forced to cut the price of the arcade SKU. Bundling the Natal would up the value proposition of the PRO while not depreciating the entry SKU.

-As far as devs go, they dont need to create new art assets for games, but rather accomodate a new input mechanism of interface. Either way, devs will continue to make games for the core traditional audience, with some developers implementing complementary motion controls- if done correctly, it could be seen as an additional selling factor for their product. Motion controls are being approached by all 3 companies, so they'll need to at least familiarize themselves with its use/application.

I feel the same. (from skimming)

Maybe this means both XBOX 360 and PLAYSTATION 3 will last till 2012?

I think both the 360 and PS3 will last till 2015 or longer.  I used to think that microsoft would release the 360's successor in 2012, but after introducing Natal, I think they could probably push back a few years till 2013 or even 2014 (depending on the market conditions).