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@goddog, i see where you are coming from, and i agree that microsofts goal for the gen is to make back the money they have lost. But who says they cant do both

- Instead of dropping the price of the Arcade SKU (currently at $199), and take a further loss, why not add value and functionality to it at minimal cost (flash memory being added for hard drive related features). they are already the cheapest console on the market, their goal should be to differentiate themselves. Hence, for gamers that are looking for a cheap alternative for core gaming, yet wouldnt consider buying an arcade b/c they felt it was "gimped," they now have a viable option. In addition, they allow for further price reductions for minimal entry in the future. Microsofts goal should be to sell the Arcade SKU at a small profit and I think they can do that with these changes (assuming cost reductions have occurred in the 2 years they have kept the price at $199).

- as far as the PRO SKU goes, microsoft must justify the $100 difference between the arcade unit based on the inclusion of a 60 GB hard-drive and a component cables. At the same time they must justify a possible price parity with an inevitable $299 PS3 (which pretty much plays most of the same games but also acts as a blu-ray player). Do they cut its price? no, b/c then they would be forced to cut the price of the arcade SKU. Bundling the Natal would up the value proposition of the PRO while not depreciating the entry SKU.

-As far as devs go, they dont need to create new art assets for games, but rather accomodate a new input mechanism of interface. Either way, devs will continue to make games for the core traditional audience, with some developers implementing complementary motion controls- if done correctly, it could be seen as an additional selling factor for their product. Motion controls are being approached by all 3 companies, so they'll need to at least familiarize themselves with its use/application.