At a recent conference call with preliminary quarterly data (obviously the July 1 to Sept 30 quarter is not over yet), Sony said PS2 and PSP sales were exceeding demand, while PS3 was selling a bit short of expectations.

In a seperate piece Pachter said...

"After seeing LittleBigPlanet at TGS, I believe it could be a console mover,"

"The game is really innovative, and I think it adds a family element that is so far missing from both the Xbox 360 and the PS3. If they can accompany that game's launch with a price cut (or a lower priced SKU), I think we'll see a spike in sales," he added.

'Although Sony stated there are no immediate plans for a price cut of the PlayStation 3 at last week's event, Pachter believes the company needs to drop the RRP of the console if it's to meet its 11 million shipment targets by March 2008 (Clarification: Sony had intended to ship 11 million PS3s from April 1 2007 to March 3 2008).'

"If Sony doesn't cut price at all during its fiscal year, they will probably miss their 11 million shipment target," he said. "However, a price cut early in 2008 should spark sales, and their line-up of LittleBigPlanet, Gran Turismo 5, Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto 4 should help move consoles."

"If they don't cut price, they'll probably sell through around 7 million for the fiscal year, and will probably ship no more than 8 - 9 million," he added.

Sony unveiled LittleBigPlanet earlier this year at the Game Developers Conference and it has quickly become one of the PS3's most anticipated titles, along with the 3D social networking service Home and the latest iteration of SingStar.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=28926

PS3 had about 3.0 million in sell through on 4/1/2007, so if Pachter expects 7 million sell through in fiscal 2008 (by 4/1/2008), then it means he expects 10 million gamers will have PS3 on April 1, 2008. 

Personally, I have PS3 reaching 7.5 million in sell through by the end of 2007, which would translate into sell through of ~8.5 million by March 31, 2008.  However, if Metal Gear Solid 4, Little Big Planet, and GTA IV all release before March 31, 2008, PS3 could hit ~10 million by March 31, 2008.

For the April 1 2007 to March 31 2008 period, I expect Sony to miss PS3 shipment projections of 11 million - simply because they won't be able to ship 15 million PS3s since launch when sell through is under 11 million.  Shipping 9 million from April 1 2007 to March 31 2008 (as Pachter suggests) seems pretty realistic, as that would push ~13 million PS3s into stores worldwide, keeping sell through at around 85% of shipment totals, with plenty of stock for the big game releases.   

I imagine by March 31, 2008 we'll see the (lifetime) shipment totals as approximately:

Wii - 23-25 million

360 - 18-20 million

PS3 - 12-14 million

good read. its possible for ps3 to do but we will see how the market favours them

nah... scrap all that. Its too late, and I'm tired :)

In short - I agree with the Source. 

Wait a minute ... Sony claimed they shipped 5.5 Million consoles in fiscal 2007 so to make their 11 Million fiscal 2008 mark they would have to ship an additional 11 Million consoles for a total of 16.5 Million. They have currently sold 4.5 Million consoles which means that (even if you give them 2 million shipped-unsold console buffer) they have 10 Million consoles to sell in 6 months ...

It's not going to happen regardless of what Sony does

I agree with Pachter that they'll have trouble shipping 11 million this year, but this comment illicits a "no duh" from me:

"If they can accompany that game's launch with a price cut (or a lower priced SKU), I think we'll see a spike in sales,"

I think we'd see a spike in sales even if they cut the price without any new games to accompany it. That's kind of the point of price cuts. Not to say it's a bad idea...a price cut should come around the same time as some major game releases...it's just one of those silly statements that doesn't mean much when you think about it.

... isn't the 80GB getting a cut to $499 when the 60GB runs out.. could have sworn thats going to happen.

Actually, Sony changed their accounting methods. The actual number was 3.57 million shipped based on the current accounting method. 

Sony said they would take action when the 60gb model runs out.

There's really nothing to say here? If Sony want to SHIP 11million worldwide then they'll definitely have to lower the price ($50 is at least something) or bring out ANOTHER SKU which had better not happen, then they'll meet the target. MAYBE. But since Kaz already said that there will be no price cut for this year and bringing out another SKU would not even make any sense, Sony will most likely not make its little shipment target.