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Forums - Sales - Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

Smashchu2 on 23 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:

You're going to see an increase in ownership from the 3 million that the PS3 has now in Japan to between 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after FFXIII, Versus XIII, and GT5 come out. Not to mention all the other PS3 games like Trico, PS3 Tales of Vesperia, and Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2, and whatever exclusive Kojima has brewing for the system next that Japanese gamers will also go nuts over.

The success of the PS3 in Japan and its far greater popularity there than the 360 will ever have in that nation guarantees that the PS3 won't be going away for a long time.

Wow, that sounded more like cheerleading.

I will say this. How will those games push the PS3? Why will they, despite only MGS4 has pushed PS3s?



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Squilliam on 23 May 2009
|_emmiwinks said:
Undying said:
Carl2291 said:
Undying said:
Carl2291 said:
They said it was to stay for 10 years, when they were losing $200 a console.

I doubt their motive will have changed now the loss has been significantly reduced.

A lot has changed since the PS3 was launched. I will be suprised if it makes it to 2013.

If SONY start to make profits, their is no reason why they cant do with it... what they did with the PS2.

PS4 will probably be on the market by 2012/13... but dont expect to see PS3 suddenly just die like the Xbox did.

If being the keyword. Sony is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they cut the price they will sell more consoles, but then they will be losing more money. The PS3 will most likly not see any kind of profit or a few years if at all.

 

The PS3 will be killed off as fast as possible, just like the xbox and cube were. There is no reason for sony to support the PS3 if its not making them money and its still in 3rd place. History poves this statement correct.

 

They are already making money on the 499 console, and are only 40 dollars under on the 399 console.

You really want to bet they wont make a profit on the consoles for 3+ years? I'll let you take that back right now if you want. the PS3 Slim will cut production costs even more, but sell at the same price... So how bout I say that they will turn a profit on every console sold by December this year baring a price drop and the PS3 Slim being fake. We can make this official if you want.

They only sell them at 1/9th the rate of the 80GB SKU, so really if the only reason why most people get that SKU is the bundled game then they probably lose the sale of that bundled game that would have been bought anyway. Therefore its effect on their overall profitability may be quite small.



Tease.

Ausfalcon on 23 May 2009
ZenfoldorVGI said:

I've always thought the 10 year thing was a marketing talking point, to make people believe that investing 500 dollars in a gaming system was worth it because it will be around for a long time.

Most likely, Sony will proactively release their next console to combat Microsoft when necessary.

They might keep the PS3 on the market for 10 years, but I doubt it will be their primary console for more than 6.

Good post.  I agree.



Currently playing:  PC:  Wolfenstein  PS2:  Final Fantasy X  PS3: All-Pro Football 2K8 Wii:  Force Unleashed  PSP:  God of War: CoO Xbox 360:  Gears of War 2  

Most anticipated game:  Dragon Age Origins (PC)

txrattlesnake on 23 May 2009

coolestguyever, i already predicted it would sell 70 million. a lot of people have bought a wii for the express purpose of tiding them over until the ps3 is a bit less expensive.



Smashchu2 on 23 May 2009
coolestguyever said:
Smashchu2 said:
@greenmedic88: uhhh, where to start
1)The PS3 will not match the PS1 or 2 in any way. Those systems turned a profit and sold over 100million units. The PS3 is struggling to beat the N64. This claim is just plain silly.


Dude the PS3 isn't struggling to beat the N64. 2 1/2 years in the PS3 is at 22.2 million. The N64 sold 32 million LIFETIME. And not only that but the lowest the PS3 has been is $400 and I could be wrong but wasn't the N64 $299 (or lower) at launch?

If you consider the PS3 struggling to beat the N64 then I guess our definitions of struggling differ greatly.


I will be willing to put a major bet that PS3 has sold more units than the NES by the end of 2012 - That makes 6 years on the market if my math is correct. That means 61 million sales or more by 2012. Any takers???

How you beelive that is beyond me. That is purperosterous. Consoles are momentum based, so the beginging determins the end. The PS3 IS struggling and has been stagnant for a while. Even when software comes out, it does push the system. It just sits there. The 360 is doing better now. How come it wont sell for 6 years? If Microsoft releases a new system, why wont Sony release on to combat it? Why wont third parties move to the Wii since it has the most units sold and is cheaper to make games on? Why does no one ask these questions?

The bet is a safe one on my part becuase the PS3 will never make it. It first has to sell for 6 years, but anyone with reason knows that it's sales are not good enough to do that and software comes to slow on it. It just outragious that you claim that.

And second, why does no one back these claims up? I have not seen a good reason for any of them?



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|_emmiwinks on 23 May 2009
Squilliam said:
|_emmiwinks said:
Undying said:
Carl2291 said:
Undying said:
Carl2291 said:
They said it was to stay for 10 years, when they were losing $200 a console.

I doubt their motive will have changed now the loss has been significantly reduced.

A lot has changed since the PS3 was launched. I will be suprised if it makes it to 2013.

If SONY start to make profits, their is no reason why they cant do with it... what they did with the PS2.

PS4 will probably be on the market by 2012/13... but dont expect to see PS3 suddenly just die like the Xbox did.

If being the keyword. Sony is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they cut the price they will sell more consoles, but then they will be losing more money. The PS3 will most likly not see any kind of profit or a few years if at all.

 

The PS3 will be killed off as fast as possible, just like the xbox and cube were. There is no reason for sony to support the PS3 if its not making them money and its still in 3rd place. History poves this statement correct.

 

They are already making money on the 499 console, and are only 40 dollars under on the 399 console.

You really want to bet they wont make a profit on the consoles for 3+ years? I'll let you take that back right now if you want. the PS3 Slim will cut production costs even more, but sell at the same price... So how bout I say that they will turn a profit on every console sold by December this year baring a price drop and the PS3 Slim being fake. We can make this official if you want.

They only sell them at 1/9th the rate of the 80GB SKU, so really if the only reason why most people get that SKU is the bundled game then they probably lose the sale of that bundled game that would have been bought anyway. Therefore its effect on their overall profitability may be quite small.

Oh squil, Im not saying that they will all of the sudden be making massive profits or anything, but the guy spoke in the abosulte of they will not see any kind of profit from the systems for 3+ years.

And I hate definites. Especially since its already false on the fact that one SKU ALREADY sells for a profit. :)



I own all three current consoles and a great gaming rig, now thats out of the way.

This space Reserved for the Nuggets of Wisdom dropped by Bladeforce:

"Why post something like this when all it will get is PS3 owners blinded to reality replying? BOTH THE PS3 AND BLUE-RAY WILL NOT LAST 3 YEARS! TECHNOLOGY CHANGED TOO FAST!"

"is it Wii FIt that has sold as many as PS3's sold? Thats a LOL Look at the total sales of software is it just me that sees Nintendo titles hitting 10m+ and you say they arent making a difference? Another LOL!"

"Hell, with all the negative hype Sony spin, people just aren't interested cost is too high and to get the true HD experience (1080p, 7.1 surround) you will need a $1000+ system. THAT IS GOING TO DO IT IN A RECESSION! PS4 will not happen"

arsenicazure on 23 May 2009
richardhutnik said:
Several factors here that need to be accounted for:
1. The Playstation 3 is set to get some really good games this year. One of the cases for it that has been argued, is the best PS3 titles have not showed up yet. GT5 (Full) hasn't hit yet, and neither has Final Fantasy 13.
2. The PS3 hasn't had a price cut.
3. The PS3 hasn't shown defection of third-party developers away from it.

Now, does this mean the PS3 will have a 10 year life cycle? No it doesn't. But other things need to be factored in.

$599 launch price says hello...



Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.

owner of : atari 2600, commodore 64, NES,gameboy,atari lynx, genesis, saturn,neogeo,DC,PS2,GC,X360, Wii

5 THINGS I'd like to see before i knock out:

a. a AAA 3D sonic title

b. a nintendo developed game that has a "M rating"

c. redesgined PS controller

d. SEGA back in the console business

e. M$ out of the OS business

txrattlesnake on 23 May 2009
Smashchu2 said:
txrattlesnake said:

You're going to see an increase in ownership from the 3 million that the PS3 has now in Japan to between 5 to 7 million PS3s sold in Japan after FFXIII, Versus XIII, and GT5 come out. Not to mention all the other PS3 games like Trico, PS3 Tales of Vesperia, and Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2, and whatever exclusive Kojima has brewing for the system next that Japanese gamers will also go nuts over.

The success of the PS3 in Japan and its far greater popularity there than the 360 will ever have in that nation guarantees that the PS3 won't be going away for a long time.

Wow, that sounded more like cheerleading.

I will say this. How will those games push the PS3? Why will they, despite only MGS4 has pushed PS3s?


     Do a bit of research.  Almost every FF main series game has sold multiple millions of copies in Japan.  Both FFVII and FFX sold over 3 million copies in Japan (VII came very close to selling 4 million there).  Even FF X-2 sold over 2 million copies in Japan.  So, even if you say half the people that were going to buy those games have already bought a PS3 in Japan.  that still leaves about two million PS3s to be sold in Japan on the strength of FF XIII, Versus XIII, and GT5.  Of course when the PS3 has over 5 million consoles sold in Japan while the 360 has less than 1.5 million many more Japanese developers will be making their hd rpgs as PS3 exclusives as a result (and it will always be in Japanese developers' best interest to port any game that they do make as an exclusive for 360 over to the PS3 see Tales of Vesperia and Star Ocean 4 failing to sell half of what the last one on PS2 did).



Squilliam on 23 May 2009
Smashchu2 said:
coolestguyever said:
Smashchu2 said:
@greenmedic88: uhhh, where to start
1)The PS3 will not match the PS1 or 2 in any way. Those systems turned a profit and sold over 100million units. The PS3 is struggling to beat the N64. This claim is just plain silly.


Dude the PS3 isn't struggling to beat the N64. 2 1/2 years in the PS3 is at 22.2 million. The N64 sold 32 million LIFETIME. And not only that but the lowest the PS3 has been is $400 and I could be wrong but wasn't the N64 $299 (or lower) at launch?

If you consider the PS3 struggling to beat the N64 then I guess our definitions of struggling differ greatly.

 

I will be willing to put a major bet that PS3 has sold more units than the NES by the end of 2012 - That makes 6 years on the market if my math is correct. That means 61 million sales or more by 2012. Any takers???

How you beelive that is beyond me. That is purperosterous. Consoles are momentum based, so the beginging determins the end. The PS3 IS struggling and has been stagnant for a while. Even when software comes out, it does push the system. It just sits there. The 360 is doing better now. How come it wont sell for 6 years? If Microsoft releases a new system, why wont Sony release on to combat it? Why wont third parties move to the Wii since it has the most units sold and is cheaper to make games on? Why does no one ask these questions?

The bet is a safe one on my part becuase the PS3 will never make it. It first has to sell for 6 years, but anyone with reason knows that it's sales are not good enough to do that and software comes to slow on it. It just outragious that you claim that.

And second, why does no one back these claims up? I have not seen a good reason for any of them?

Because the Wii is cheap to develop for, it has a lot of projects which sell very little vying for shelf space. Whereas on the Xbox 360 and PS3 the shelves aren't as contested as the development costs are greater and the userbase tends to buy a lot of games upfront which means a fast turnaround for a new project. So therefore the combination of having fewer titles to contend with and higher development costs keeping the shovelware/cheap development to a minimum, the name brand developers (The ones people on this site can quote the names of) tend to keep producing Xbox 360/PS3 multiplatform games. Game development is a fools game in many ways, and people will keep making more and more titles until the average game doesn't make a profit and this will/has happened for both the Wii:PS3/360 development.



Tease.

|_emmiwinks on 23 May 2009
Smashchu2 said:
coolestguyever said:
Smashchu2 said:
@greenmedic88: uhhh, where to start
1)The PS3 will not match the PS1 or 2 in any way. Those systems turned a profit and sold over 100million units. The PS3 is struggling to beat the N64. This claim is just plain silly.


Dude the PS3 isn't struggling to beat the N64. 2 1/2 years in the PS3 is at 22.2 million. The N64 sold 32 million LIFETIME. And not only that but the lowest the PS3 has been is $400 and I could be wrong but wasn't the N64 $299 (or lower) at launch?

If you consider the PS3 struggling to beat the N64 then I guess our definitions of struggling differ greatly.


I will be willing to put a major bet that PS3 has sold more units than the NES by the end of 2012 - That makes 6 years on the market if my math is correct. That means 61 million sales or more by 2012. Any takers???

How you beelive that is beyond me. That is purperosterous. Consoles are momentum based, so the beginging determins the end. The PS3 IS struggling and has been stagnant for a while. Even when software comes out, it does push the system. It just sits there. The 360 is doing better now. How come it wont sell for 6 years? If Microsoft releases a new system, why wont Sony release on to combat it? Why wont third parties move to the Wii since it has the most units sold and is cheaper to make games on? Why does no one ask these questions?

The bet is a safe one on my part becuase the PS3 will never make it. It first has to sell for 6 years, but anyone with reason knows that it's sales are not good enough to do that and software comes to slow on it. It just outragious that you claim that.

And second, why does no one back these claims up? I have not seen a good reason for any of them?

Eh, I would spend half an hour arguing you, but I really dont have the energy. The PS3 is virtually neck and neck with the system you said is doing better week over week and is 200 dollars more expensive. If anything proves that it is not on its death bed that does.

Now I know most people will see this and think its a load, the PS3 really has yet to drop any of its massive exclusives on the masses. FFXIII is a massive powerhouse in Japan, and guess who has it exclusively there, GT5 is huge in both Europe and Japan, God of War III is huge in America all these games will move units. Massive amounts of units. Each one of these times is an oppertunity for a unit that hasnt started gaining momentum to start gaining it and keeping it.

Keep your idea, and use these games as milestones on it. If GT5 or FFXIII in Japan only make a blip on the PS3's sales, THEN you know you are right, but right now, its conjecture based in a bad time for all 3 consoles before the PS3 has even started pushing its huge games out the door.

ugh, I spent myself doing that, I need to go refuel on some console gaming action.



I own all three current consoles and a great gaming rig, now thats out of the way.

This space Reserved for the Nuggets of Wisdom dropped by Bladeforce:

"Why post something like this when all it will get is PS3 owners blinded to reality replying? BOTH THE PS3 AND BLUE-RAY WILL NOT LAST 3 YEARS! TECHNOLOGY CHANGED TOO FAST!"

"is it Wii FIt that has sold as many as PS3's sold? Thats a LOL Look at the total sales of software is it just me that sees Nintendo titles hitting 10m+ and you say they arent making a difference? Another LOL!"

"Hell, with all the negative hype Sony spin, people just aren't interested cost is too high and to get the true HD experience (1080p, 7.1 surround) you will need a $1000+ system. THAT IS GOING TO DO IT IN A RECESSION! PS4 will not happen"