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Forums - Sales - Why the PS3 will not last long, let alone 10 years.

txrattlesnake on 25 May 2009
MaxwellGT2000 said:
txrattlesnake said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
txrattlesnake said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
txrattlesnake said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
txrattlesnake said:
By Summer 2010, the PS3 will have sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan while the 360 won't break 1.5 million there.

So you're saying over the span of less then a year... a console will sell 2 to 4 million units in one region and sell a copy of each one of the console owners... and the console has sold just over 3 million units over the 2 and a half years it's been out? .... BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


    Excuse me, but could you tell me when during those two and a half years the PS3 saw the release of one Gran Turismo game and two Final Fantasy games, didn't think so.

<_< the GT games were bundled with a system that was in it's prime and market leader, it won't be quite as epic as it was for the PS2. 

Here's a bit of information...

Dragon Quest VIII - Japan 3.68

Final Fantasy XII - Japan 2.42

Final Fantasy X - Japan 3.02

How can a series that barely sold 3 million on Japans biggest console install base ever sell 7 million units on one of the smallest?  It's statistically impossible, and further more Dragon Quest's main series is more popular in Japan and it's going to the Wii, so where's your astronomical statistically impossible sales prediction for that game?

 


     I didn't say either Versus or XIII was going to have 7 million sales in Japan.  But, I do think both XIII and Versus will have sales very close to, between, or more than X and VII (VII had 3.97 million sales on a console with a smaller user base than the PS2).  Games move consoles and just as it moved PS1 and PS2 FF will move PS3s.

 

 

 

"txrattlesnake said:
By Summer 2010, the PS3 will have sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan while the 360 won't break 1.5 million there."

Right there <_<

 

     No I said total sales of the PS3 in Japan between November 2006 and Summer 2010 following the release of GT5, FFXIII, and Versus XIII will be 5 to 7 million while the 360 won't have passed a total of 1.5 million consoles sold there between November 2005 to Summer 2010 leading more Japanese developers to consider the PS3 to be the best option for their hd exclusives.  I do expect FF XIII, Versus XIII, and GT5 (along with other announced games) to lead to an increase in PS3 from the 3 million it has now to the 5 to 7 million figure.  If I was to narrow that down, I think its probable that the first week following Versus XIII's Japanese release 5.5 to 6 million PS3's will have sold in Japan (1.5 million more than now million as a result of FFXIII's release, 500,000 to 1 million more than now as a result of GT 5's release, 1 to 1.5 million more than now as a result of Versus FFXIII's release).

So in a year PS3 console sales will roughly double... which is absurd... because those exclusives will not push console sales that much...


      Saying something's absurd doesn't mean something won't happen.  Doubling from 3 million to 5 million or above is a very small double.  I'm sure that Monster Hunter Freedom Unite that has sold 3.19 million copies in Japan has resulted in at least one million PSPs that weren't sold prior to its release to having been sold after its release.  Do you really think Square expects their FF games to sell far fewer copies in Japan than previous installments simply because the PS3's install base isn't so large yet?



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MaxwellGT2000 on 25 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
txrattlesnake said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
txrattlesnake said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
txrattlesnake said:
MaxwellGT2000 said:
txrattlesnake said:
By Summer 2010, the PS3 will have sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan while the 360 won't break 1.5 million there.

So you're saying over the span of less then a year... a console will sell 2 to 4 million units in one region and sell a copy of each one of the console owners... and the console has sold just over 3 million units over the 2 and a half years it's been out? .... BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


    Excuse me, but could you tell me when during those two and a half years the PS3 saw the release of one Gran Turismo game and two Final Fantasy games, didn't think so.

<_< the GT games were bundled with a system that was in it's prime and market leader, it won't be quite as epic as it was for the PS2. 

Here's a bit of information...

Dragon Quest VIII - Japan 3.68

Final Fantasy XII - Japan 2.42

Final Fantasy X - Japan 3.02

How can a series that barely sold 3 million on Japans biggest console install base ever sell 7 million units on one of the smallest?  It's statistically impossible, and further more Dragon Quest's main series is more popular in Japan and it's going to the Wii, so where's your astronomical statistically impossible sales prediction for that game?

 


     I didn't say either Versus or XIII was going to have 7 million sales in Japan.  But, I do think both XIII and Versus will have sales very close to, between, or more than X and VII (VII had 3.97 million sales on a console with a smaller user base than the PS2).  Games move consoles and just as it moved PS1 and PS2 FF will move PS3s.

 

 

 

"txrattlesnake said:
By Summer 2010, the PS3 will have sold 5 to 7 million copies in Japan while the 360 won't break 1.5 million there."

Right there <_<

 

     No I said total sales of the PS3 in Japan between November 2006 and Summer 2010 following the release of GT5, FFXIII, and Versus XIII will be 5 to 7 million while the 360 won't have passed a total of 1.5 million consoles sold there between November 2005 to Summer 2010 leading more Japanese developers to consider the PS3 to be the best option for their hd exclusives.  I do expect FF XIII, Versus XIII, and GT5 (along with other announced games) to lead to an increase in PS3 from the 3 million it has now to the 5 to 7 million figure.  If I was to narrow that down, I think its probable that the first week following Versus XIII's Japanese release 5.5 to 6 million PS3's will have sold in Japan (1.5 million more than now million as a result of FFXIII's release, 500,000 to 1 million more than now as a result of GT 5's release, 1 to 1.5 million more than now as a result of Versus FFXIII's release).

So in a year PS3 console sales will roughly double... which is absurd... because those exclusives will not push console sales that much...


      Saying something's absurd doesn't make it so.  Doubling from 3 million to 5 million or above is a very small double.  I'm sure that Monster Hunter 3 moved at least a million PSPs.

But FFXIII is not as big as Monster Hunter, which even it didn't move a million PSP's the spike after Monster Hunter Unite (Monster Hunters biggest PSP title) and the spike was only 60k... you over estimate some softwares hardware selling power by a LOT.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PSP&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=Wii&reg3=Japan&start=39523&end=39572

Just for reference...

Seriously man it's not going to happen common sense should tell you that...



MaxwellGT2000 - "Does the amount of times you beat it count towards how hardcore you are?"

Wii Friend Code - 5882 9717 7391 0918 (PM me if you add me), PSN - MaxwellGT2000, XBL - BlkKniteCecil, MaxwellGT2000

tedsteriscool on 25 May 2009
Bladeforce said:
@KBG29
"Sony knows what they are going to do with the PS3 way down the road. They have the gameplan for when they will start thinking about PS4. As far as I know, no one on this site works in the executive roles for SCEI, so therefore no one has a clue what they are talking about when they say Sony will fail. As I said, if you are saying the quoted sectionis correct then this is not to you. But, to the people that think that it is crazy that Sony has more knowledge about PS3's future than any of us. Get Fucking Real."

That really is the most hilarious paragraph I have had the pleasure of reading for a long time!
Thank you for that

You REALLY think after the mighty sales of the PS1, PS2 that Sony even "think" they have a clue at the market? LOOK, a really good company can shift goals, marketing and outlook pretty easily due to changes in the market. Would you agree the WHOLE market has changed and gone into recession? Hell, with all the negative hype Sony spin, people just aren't interested cost is too high and to get the true HD experience (1080p, 7.1 surround) you will need a $1000+ system. THAT IS GOING TO DO IT IN A RECESSION! PS4 will not happen

I hate it when the good looking ones are illogical.

 

You don't NEED all of the ammenities to take full advantage of the PS3. Its just an added advantage over competitors when the user is able to experience the true capabilities of the PS3 with uncompressed audio, 1080P, etc.



txrattlesnake on 25 May 2009

No, its going to happen.  After the release of Final Fantasy Versus XIII, the PS3 will have sold 5 to 7 million units in Japan.  Otherwise, FF XIII and Versus XIII, and GT 5 will sell no more than 1.5 million, 1.5 million, and 1 million copies in Japan, and I'm fairly certain that would be inexcusable numbers to the devlopers of those games whose games have always sold 2 to 4 million copies in Japan.

Either the sales bump I've predicted for the PS3 in Japan will occur or all of those games will only sell half of what games in those series traditionally sale in Japan for some inexplicable reason.  There really isn't another possibility.

 

 



MaxwellGT2000 on 25 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:

No, its going to happen.  After the release of Final Fantasy Versus XIII, the PS3 will have sold 5 to 7 million units in Japan.  Otherwise, FF XIII and Versus XIII, and GT 5 will sell no more than 1.5 million, 1.5 million, and 1 million copies in Japan, and I'm fairly certain that would be inexcusable numbers to the devlopers of those games whose games have always sold 2 to 4 million copies in Japan.

Either the sales bump I've predicted for the PS3 in Japan will occur or all of those games will only sell half of what games in those series traditionally sale in Japan for some inexplicable reason.  There really isn't another possibility.

 

 

Then it'll just be inexcuseable by those standards cause those series are bigger in the west, in Japan all those series have lost steam... Dragon Quest and Pokemon are the two biggest RPGs in Japan now...



MaxwellGT2000 - "Does the amount of times you beat it count towards how hardcore you are?"

Wii Friend Code - 5882 9717 7391 0918 (PM me if you add me), PSN - MaxwellGT2000, XBL - BlkKniteCecil, MaxwellGT2000

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theprof00 on 25 May 2009

@OP
wow what are you talking about. That was such a waste of time. Using outdated facts and opinion.



nightsurge on 25 May 2009

To wrap this up, Sony does not control their console's lifetime. Consumers and retailers do. If the PS3 is still the least selling console by the start of the next generation, it will be discontinued from retail space first to make room for the new consoles. There is nothing Sony can do to stop this except advertise and figure out a way to sell more PS3's. Even if the PS3 becomes profitable and cuts the price, if it is last in sales when 2012 rolls around it will be bye-bye PS3 and so long 10 year plan. This is almost guaranteed to happen in the US given the console situation there, but in Europe and Japan the PS3 may still live on for a few more years.



txrattlesnake on 25 May 2009

FF hasn't lost any steam. Both FFXIII and Versus XIII will achieve 3 to 5 million sales in Japan on PS3 this gen and GT5 will achieve 2 million + sales in Japan on the PS3 this gen. There's no doubt about it. And that means there will be a bump to at least 5 million PS3s sold in Japan following the release of FF Versus XIII there's really no doubt about it.

FFVII sold 3.97 million in Japan, X sold 3.0 million, and both of the first GTs on PS1 and PS2 sold over 2 million in Japan.



MaxwellGT2000 on 25 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:

FF hasn't lost any steam. Both FFXIII and Versus XIII will achieve 3 to 5 million sales in Japan on PS3 this gen and GT5 will achieve 2 million + sales in Japan on the PS3 this gen. There's no doubt about it. And that means there will be a bump to at least 5 million PS3s sold in Japan following the release of FF Versus XIII there's really no doubt about it.

FFVII sold 3.97 million in Japan, X sold 3.0 million, and both of the first GTs on PS1 and PS2 sold over 2 million in Japan.

XIII is not VII... it never will be...

yes VII sold nearly 4 million X sold just 3 million and XII hasn't even sold 3 million woo! that's keeping that train chugging along...

You have statistics and facts going against you here... you haven't even come up with a plausable prediction yet...



MaxwellGT2000 - "Does the amount of times you beat it count towards how hardcore you are?"

Wii Friend Code - 5882 9717 7391 0918 (PM me if you add me), PSN - MaxwellGT2000, XBL - BlkKniteCecil, MaxwellGT2000

txrattlesnake on 25 May 2009

Yeah, I've come up with a plausible prediction. You're just trying to get on the PS3 is doomed bandwagon. There's not much we can do about it now except talk about it back and foirth all night. By 1-1-2010 after GT5 and XIII release later this year, over 4 million PS3s will have been sold in Japan. If it doesn't happen, I'll give you half my vgchartz money on that day and if it does give me half of yours.