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Forums - Sales - The Official April NPD Thread (Data at 6:30 PM EST)

TheSource on 16 May 2009

While I'm on Ail...

April 2008 was only four weeks by NPD.

Their schedule by weeks is 4-4-5 by fiscal year quarter (three months ending March, June, September, December) except in every 7th year when NPD adds an extra week to January to re-align the pattern to the calendary year. There was a five week NPD January in 2007, just as there was in 2000 and will be in 2014.

As a final thought on projections:

DS, Wii, PSP, 360, PS3, PS2 was the sales ranking for the six systems worldwide in the year ending March 2009. Combined, these systems shipped over 100m. There were 765m games shipped worldwide. The projections for this March 2010 year call for similar unit sales. But with PS2 down in shipments and revenues, the PSP software segment at retail vanishing, PS3 likely getting a price cut, and 360 likely getting a price cut around when PS3 does, the year ending March 2009 almost certaintly looks like the Revenue and Profit peak of this cycle, even though software shipments for PS3/360/Wii will be up again this year, while DS software shipments will be essentially flat. Given the losses currently suffered by videogame goliaths like Sony and EA that prospect has to be terrifying.



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thx1139 on 16 May 2009
Soundwave said:
thx1139 said:

 

 Unrelated.  Last year Nintendo could release as many pieces of hardware they could find and they would sell. Didnt matter what game released.  You may not believe it, but it was the market last year.

As for needing "big" core games like Smash, etc. Nope Nintendo doesnt need them.  The market for the Wii is decidly casual/fitness related now.  The Nintendo fan has got his Wii, most core gamers I know anyway consider Smash, MK, and Galaxy "Nintendo titles" not "core titles".

 

So if Nintendo had a Donkey Kong game or say a Zelda game this month, you believe it would have made zero difference? 

Keep in mind last year this time Wii Fit wasn't even out in North America. They sold 700k+ Wiis in March/April and the only big releases were Smash and Mario Kart. 

I don't care what some kids on the internet consider to be "core" or not, Mario Kart and Smash Bros. were core titles 10 years ago and they are still today. 

Actually yes I dont believe that either a new Donkey Kong or Zelda game will drive Wii sals.  First of all the Wii has already had a very highly rated Zelda game. The Zelda fans already have a Wii.  As for Donkey Kong people actually believe that it would pull in people that havent been pulled in already.  Wii sales are driven by WiiFit and aura of Motion control.

 



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Esmoreit on 16 May 2009

Wow.. Source put the smackdown on Ail.

Anyway, the press-releases from the companies, taken from NPDanalysis. Not surprisingly, Sony's response is the longest, Nintendo the shortest:

Sony

Sony Computer Entertainment of America senior director of corporate communications Patrick Seybold has responded to the NPD's hardware and software sales data for April of 2009, focusing on titles slated for release on the PlayStation 3 later this year, as well as the console's non-gaming functions.

"We're revving up the new fiscal year with a broad tent of content and services across our platforms with envelope-pushing PS3 games like inFAMOUS, MAG, and Uncharted 2: Among Thieves," said Seybold.

While full sales data for PlayStation 3 and PlayStation Portable titles was not disclosed by the NPD group, it should be noted that only one title for a Sony platform - EA's The Godfather II for PS3 - made an appearance on April's top ten sales list, at 91,000 units. Hardware sales for the PS3 were also down, at 127,000 units compared to 187,000 units in April 2008.

Rather than comment on these figures, Seybold discussed SCEA's marketing strategy for the remainder of the year, revealing that it will focus on the PS3's non-gaming functionality and features.

"We often hear from our customers that they're surprised by everything the PS3 does in addition to what they purchased the device for - including features like DLNA, free access to Wi-Fi and internet browser," said Seybold. "In some ways, this serves as a reminder that there's more we can do to relay the full breadth and power of the PS3.

"We know our consumers have varying entertainment lifestyles from the Blu-ray movie fanatic to photo enthusiast, so we've outlined our most aggressive marketing plans to help showcase this tremendous value proposition to all our consumers.

"We've got a proven history in delivering the best entertainment experience and there is no doubt the PlayStation brand is staged for another big year."

 

Microsoft:

Microsoft has released its official reaction to the NPD Group's hardware and software sales numbers for April of 2009, focusing on third-party software success and a growth in Xbox 360 console sales for the first four months of the year.

According to Microsoft, four of the top ten home console games for April 2009 are third-party titles for the Xbox 360, including Capcom's Resident Evil 5, EA's The Godfather II, and both Guitar Hero: Aerosmith and Guitar Hero: Metallica from Activision Blizzard. It should be noted that the top ten Microsoft refers to does not include portable titles for the Nintendo DS or PlayStation Portable, unlike the software list reported earlier.

"Sales of third-party games on Xbox 360, a key measure of platform health, hit USD 98 million in April, more than any other system," Microsoft said in a press release.

Microsoft also noted that while Xbox 360 console sales were down in April year-on-year, hardware sales for January through April combined are up 28 per cent from the same period in 2008.

"Xbox 360 is the fastest-growing game console in the US so far this year, with retail sales jumping 28 per cent year-over-year in the first four months," said Microsoft.

"In April, Xbox 360 US retail sales were 175,000 units. Although this represents a dip of 7 per cent compared with a year earlier, April 2008 saw the release of the blockbuster Grand Theft Auto IV, significantly boosting Xbox 360 sales this time last year," the company added.

 

Nintendo

Nintendo's DS sales in April set a new hardware record for the US, as the launch of the DSi prompted consumers to snap up 827,000 of the new consoles. That combined with 215,000 DS Lite sales to total 1.04 million units, taking the lifetime total in the country to over 30 million.

Meanwhile the Wii, which sold over 340,000 units, it's on the verge of breaking the 20 million unit mark, while the company also dominated the top four software sales chart.

"Nintendo systems and software represented 56 per cent of the industry total shares in April, indicating continued strong consumer preference for quality and value," said Cammie Dunaway, Nintendo of America's executive VP of sales & marketing.

"Looking ahead, we are excited to introduce active-play games like Punch-Out!! and Wii Sports Resort into the market," she added.



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dolemit3 on 16 May 2009

"We often hear from our customers that they're surprised by everything the PS3 does in addition to what they purchased the device for - including features like DLNA, free access to Wi-Fi and internet browser,"

Meh, it looks like Sony is waiving a white flag when it comes to gaming.



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

Ail on 16 May 2009
TheSource said:

Ail you had expected Wii shipments to be like 22m you missed by a larger margin than I did. Nintendo wouldn't project 26m if they believed they couldn't beat it. Even last year they initially forecast 25m.

I do see a rise in Wii sales on Punch Out and EA Active. The preorders suggest Punch Out Wii can do a couple hundred thousand week one, maybe half a million. I was flipping around the TV today during the Phillies game and saw half a dozen 30 second to full minute spots. Wii is still going to be down in May from last year it just won't be down as much as you expect. June is a five week month and more EA and sees other sports titles using motion plus release which means Wii will be over 500k, and probably within 10% of what it did last June.

My position was that the decreases in Wii coincide with decreases in PS3 and Xbox 360 and PS2. Every system declined significantly on a weekly basis from March to April by double digit percentages. So even if Nintendo misses its projections, if the seasonality continues to hold true, it doesn't matter.

June should be down by a smaller margin than May since Wii had nothing big in 2008, and has alot of good content for the month. July will be up on the one week Wii Sports Resort is out, but the real push will probably come in August because Wii Sports Resort has only a few days for the month.

If Punch Out does something like 2-3x what Monster Hunter G does in Japan, I would expect a comparable hardware boost - 33% (Wii jumped from 14k to 19k in the pre-Golden week boost) because the USA market is 2-3x bigger. So by NPD figures thats Wii back to 115k/week. But EA Active is going to be big as well. I would think it could do anything from 20,000 to a 200k week one. But its the kind of thing that drives hardware because there are still only a few big excercise games on Wii:  Wii Fit, Jillian Michaels, and then a pretty stiff drop off. Its similar to how the music genre used to be. I don't think its a stretch to think Wii can do 450k-600k in May, especially since Punch Out is the kind of game that should develop long, powerful legs.

There is also the possibility that since DS had a massive month, with the DSi doing over 800k at $170, that with the recession people are only buying their most wanted item. Once the DSi hoopla dies down a bit to seasonal levels, Wii is essentially set to retake the mantle as most wanted item in this industry.

What's more troubling to me is that Sony is unlikely to introduce the PSP-Go before Fall, nor is a PS3 price cut before August more likely (I'd expect the first day of NPD October). Both of those systems could flirt with 80,000-100,000 unit figures in the coming months which means if the price cut/ new model introductions don't work, Sony could miss its projections for PSP and PS3 by 10-30%. In June 2007, PS3 dipped to 98,500, which is <19,000/week.

Can you imagine the reaction if PS3 did 110k in July while Wii did 600k/700k on Wii Sports Resort? In Spring 2007, those low PS3 figures were only beaten 3:1 by Wii, and argument could be made because of price ($250 vs. $600). If PS3 does ~100k/month a few times this year, when PS3 is only 60% more than Wii ($400 vs. $250), and Wii does 500k/600k/700k there is going to be serious doubt that price is the real differentiation between the two systems, which would put Sony under pressure not to drop price, since their market share will look fairly lousy regardless of improvement, but at least maintaining profit margins they could have the games division carry the company for a while again.

I don't think stockholders would care if others game makers missed their estimates like Nintendo did.

If it does it will get smacked down on the stock market...

 

In your analysis of April NPD ( front page article) you say you expect May 2009 to be down slightly compared to both April 2009 and May 2008. That doesn't make a lot of sense seeing how one was 340k and the other 790k....

Right now the Wii would need to boost software sales by 100% at some point if they want to match their expectations, I hardly see software boosting hardware that much....

I am still very doubtfull about the capacity of Punch Out and EA active to sell hardware, they will move software, yes. But hardware ?

The last game that moved hardware in the western world was Wii Fit...

 

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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Dgc1808 on 16 May 2009

DS kicked ass



4 ≈ One

TheSource on 16 May 2009

Right, clearly the other 191m games shipped in the year ending March 2009 had no impact on Wii hardware sales, it was only the magical 16m Wii Fits sold in the western markets that sold 24m Wiis. Think about what you said.

The Wii attach rate is over five even if you take out Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Music and Wii Play worldwide.

You really shouldn't doubt any game's capacity to move hardware if it sells enough. Wii Fit only did a bit better than Punch Out is likely to do week one - the difference is Nintendo saved a huge allotment of Wiis for that week so there was a massive hardware spike.

If you think Wii is just going to sell 350k/400k per Jan-Oct month in the USA you must think Nintendo is retarted for predicting 26m Wiis, as that would translate to maybe 8m Americas/8m Others/2m Japan which is only 18m and essentially what Wii did in 2007. Its pretty clear that they expect Punch Out, Wii Sports Resort, Motion Plus, Monster Hunter 3, Pikmin 3, Mario & Sonic, and all the rest to boost hardware sales from current levels to equal the figures seen last year. Since they are unlikely to match the Japan figures for 2008, that means the growth is to be largely USA and Europe based.

This is the flip of 2008 - Wii only did 1.7m in the USA in its quietest three months of the March 2009 year. Wii should do 1.5m in its quietest three months of the March 2010 year (Apr-June). Wii did 2.05m in Apr-June 2008 for its best period outside the Christmas season. This year, that three month best period should come August to October when the system can do 2m-2.5m

If your just doing NPD years, for the USA 2008 vs. 2009 looks like:

Jan-Feb - 2009 higher

March-May - 2008 higher

June-July - Flat. June probably a bit in favor of 2008, July in favor of 2009

August-September - 2009 higher

October-Dec 2009 higher

 

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

outlawauron on 16 May 2009

TheSource,

Well I still believe that until recently, it was Wii Sports and Wii Fit driving most hardware sales. They are the system sellers.

Demand has slowed as Wii Fit has been out for over a year and the Wii is no longer sold out.



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thx1139 on 16 May 2009

The Source,

I dont care how many copies of software were shipped in the last fiscal year. That much has been shipped because 50 million Wiis have been sold. 50 million Wiis were not sold because of the software shipped.

When I see 4 out of the top 20 Wii titles were fitness titles and WiiFit sold close to 500K copies this past month when only 340K Wii's were sold tells me the Wii is becoming driven by WiiFit.

I ask you who is going to purchase a Wii for Punch Out? Not who is going to purchase Punch Out. Who is going to purchase a Wii for Wii Sports Resort? Most think of it as the sequel to Wii Sports. Sequels sell software not hardware unless it is the first version on a new platform. Not to mention with 50 million consoles sold it isnt hard for a software title to sell well and have little to no effect on hardware. I now expect to hear that it is a new platform with MotionPlus. Most of the people I know that dont pay attention to game sites say well I thought thats what the Wii controller did already. I also have heard great now I need so spend another $80 for more Wii controller parts. A Will controller setup now costs what $70 or is it $80.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

bakablonde on 16 May 2009

I agree with The Source on EA Sports and Punch Out, I've got them both pre-ordered and EA Sports has been lingering forever in the top 10 on Amazon's video game bestsellers list. They've got Punch Out on sale today for $40, I jumped in at that point.