Right, clearly the other 191m games shipped in the year ending March 2009 had no impact on Wii hardware sales, it was only the magical 16m Wii Fits sold in the western markets that sold 24m Wiis. Think about what you said.
The Wii attach rate is over five even if you take out Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Music and Wii Play worldwide.
You really shouldn't doubt any game's capacity to move hardware if it sells enough. Wii Fit only did a bit better than Punch Out is likely to do week one - the difference is Nintendo saved a huge allotment of Wiis for that week so there was a massive hardware spike.
If you think Wii is just going to sell 350k/400k per Jan-Oct month in the USA you must think Nintendo is retarted for predicting 26m Wiis, as that would translate to maybe 8m Americas/8m Others/2m Japan which is only 18m and essentially what Wii did in 2007. Its pretty clear that they expect Punch Out, Wii Sports Resort, Motion Plus, Monster Hunter 3, Pikmin 3, Mario & Sonic, and all the rest to boost hardware sales from current levels to equal the figures seen last year. Since they are unlikely to match the Japan figures for 2008, that means the growth is to be largely USA and Europe based.
This is the flip of 2008 - Wii only did 1.7m in the USA in its quietest three months of the March 2009 year. Wii should do 1.5m in its quietest three months of the March 2010 year (Apr-June). Wii did 2.05m in Apr-June 2008 for its best period outside the Christmas season. This year, that three month best period should come August to October when the system can do 2m-2.5m
If your just doing NPD years, for the USA 2008 vs. 2009 looks like:
Jan-Feb - 2009 higher
March-May - 2008 higher
June-July - Flat. June probably a bit in favor of 2008, July in favor of 2009
August-September - 2009 higher
October-Dec 2009 higher
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
