wii came out less than a year ago. why dont we stop the crazy predictions until atleast 2009 :)

I can honestly say that I see little risk of the Wii suddenly stop selling.

Currently, we have seen very little evidence that the Wii is selling particularly poorly to current HDTV owners; people who own HDTVs continue to buy the Wii even though it only supports 480p. Over the next 4 years (or so) DVD players will still remain dominant, 480p broadcasts will still be the most common format for digital television and many/most HDTV owners will be buying their TVs because they are large and flat rather than their output resolution or image quality.

Even if I am wrong and HDTV owners begin to reject the Wii in (late) 2009 the Wii sales will (probably) not drop off. For Christmas 2009 I anticipate the Wii will be $150 (with only Wii sports) or $200 (with Wii Sports, Wii Fit and/or and additional Wiimote and nunchuck) and will continue to see price reductions until the end of the generation in 2011/2012. In my opinion the type of person who will be buying a console in the $100 to $150 is probably not an early adopter in HDTV, will likely not spend the additional $100 to $200 to buy a XBox 360 or PS3 if they have a PS3, or could potentially be a multi-console owner who is buying the Wii for a handful of exclusive games they're interested in.

On a side note, I believe that the majority of analysts have overestimated the rate of HDTV adoption over the next 5 years because of the unusual spending habits of the past 6 to 10 years. As I have said before, home equity loans have enabled people to tap into their home equity to increase their spending at a faster rate than their income has risen; at the same time record low interest rates have pushed housing values to record levels which produced unsustainable levels of home equity for the average person.

The housing slump and sub-prime crisis is going to eliminate a lot of home equity (in many cases the house's value will be lower than the mortgage), the Fed will stay at lower interest rates because high inflation is more politically acceptable, and the devaluation of the American dollar will result in 'record' high energy prices which (combined with other inflation) makes the cost of living rise dramatically faster than people's incomes.

The overall negative position of the economy over the next 18 to 24 months will greatly reduce people's ability and desire to buy luxury items.

The only thing I can see slowing down the Wii is a lack of good games. I'm surprised at the announcements (or lack thereof) at the TGS for the Wii. It seems like the few games being announced for it are what amounts to PS2 ports which should be a little worrisome.

I mean what happens after Galaxy and Brawl? Apparently so far all we know about Nintendo for next year is Mario Kart and Wii Fit (and a few other games), can anyone remember a year in which we really knew so little about the triple-A games coming from Nintendo next year?  Are those few games really going to keep people busy gaming for a year? Sure there are a some quality third party games coming as well but lets start facing reality, those games will few and far between and seem to pale in comparison to the Wii's rivals. I'm not saying the Wii is in trouble, just that eventually the lack of quality games might start to be a problem.

 No one has really been mentioning this. One of the few things to sell well during financial downturns is cheap (inexpensive) entertainment. The Wii seems to be positioned well for this. OTOH the housing credit crisis seems to have delayed HOME for another six months.

The prediction that there will be a Wii 2 in 4-5 years doesn't seem like much of a prediction to me. Thats the normal generation gap of consoles. Nintendo has averaged 5 years between consoles, Sega Averaged 4.3 years, Playstation is at 5.5 years, and Xbox with it's one generational leap was 4 years. Soooo, 4-5 years is how long every major console averages in going to the next gen console. (Note: I only looked at US release dates)
And your argument is based on graphics. You say MS and Sony's games will have better graphics as the developers get better on them. Well, that will happen on the Wii as well. But......just assuming the graphical gap does increase, I still don't know why so many people think in a year or two graphics will become the deciding factor, when it's clearly not now. The 360 and PS3 already have much more powerful graphics. I don't see how in a couple years, their possibly having Much much better graphics will all of a sudden mean something.

Some good interesting posts - thanks, i was worried i'd get none!

By the way, i'm not into Playstation games, but i do admire the strength of the Playstation brand and the guts it has taken to launch a console that is so well spec'ed. I own a Wii and 360 and am happy with my lot.

I'm surprised that everybody is so 100% convinced that Nintendo have got the market sown up so soon into this generation, considering Sony has done precious little in terms of marketing the console over the past 6 months or so. Also I think you'll see a big fightback as they tackle the serious software issue they have right now.

I do not think the Wii will "stop selling" as some people have misunderstood. I think sales will drop off once PS3 technology starts to permeate the mass market in a few years time. Yes, Wii may be way in front in TOTAL sales by that point (5 years from now), but Sony are planning a 10 year lifecycle for the PS3 which is very attractive for publishers and retailers. (You've got retailers in the UK like GAME literally ramming the PS3 down your throat when you enter the store which will rub off on ).

This is why i think Nintendo will not rest on its laurels, at least i hope they don't! I'm sure they are all too aware of the Sony threat

Finally, I know i'm speculating but aren't we all? Unless you have a crystal ball that is!

There is little doubt in my mind that the Wii will be the most profitable of the 3 systems this generation, both in terms of console profits and software. But if we are looking near future, we have the Zapper and Wiiboard on the horizon. And I believe Nintendo has created a patent or trademark for a body controller. Though what this is, is anyone's guess. Also Nintendo has a wealth of unexplored franchises that will take them past 2010. Icarus, Pilotwings, Starfox, FZero. And of course there are new innovative games that make use of the Wiimote. Nintendo is probable the least worried of the 3 companies right now. Though from interviews from Iwata, they will continue to challenge themselves. I think a better question would be, how will Sony and Microsoft challenge themselves next?

Also Nintendo is expanded the market. People that don't normally play video games look at the Wii as something they would want around the house. My prediction, the Wii will sell over 175 million consoles this gen.

I'm more concerned with this mischaracterization than with the original post, which has been sufficiently discredited.

Nintendo is not simply attempting to "tap the casual market." That's what Microsoft, Sony and EA are trying to do. Do you see Viva Pinata, Buzz!, Boogie, etc, high up on sales lists? Those are "casual" games which will never sell 1M copies, while traditional games like GTA, NSMB and Pokemon have no problem pushing 15M copies.

Companies that just think linearly about "how to gets us some casuals" aren't doing anything to expand the market. Nintendo are following "Blue Ocean strategy," which has nothing to do with "casual games."

I'm not going to explain it all. Read up on "Blue Ocean strategy," examine the best-selling games of all time, and put it together.

First of all welcome Mr.Wibbly. If we want to take a look into the (not so distant) future of PS3 we should take a look at Japan. Japan has the highest HDTV adoption of all countries and the lowest PS3 price, something many of the Sony fans reckon will be the future factors of PS3's success. Well I don't see any kind of domination; if Hot Shots Golf is any indicator, the Playstation brand is weakening. And if anyone says "in the future the PS3 & Xbox360 will be cheap etc" so will the Wii.