First post, so here goes......

Nintendo are obviously flying high right now with both the Wii and DS dominating the console and handheld markets worldwide. In terms of the console market, how long (realistically) can they keep up their global domination with the Wii alone before it drops off and they lose ground to their competitors? Reasons for this:-

• Sales of High-Def televisions are growing as prices plummet.
• Sony and Microsoft will no doubt unleash a huge marketing campaign before too long to push their "HD-ready" consoles that go hand-in-hand with Hi-Def TVs.
• Graphics too will improve on both the Xbox360 and PS3 as developers get to grips with the hardware, providing more realistic gaming experiences than ever seen before.

Whilst the Wii has its control innovations, how long can Nintendo keep up demand whilst distancing itself from the technological advances of its peers? Surely there are only a limited number of peripheral add-ons for the Wii that can sustain demand before eyes are drawn to the prettier PS3 or 360? Another 2-3 years i'd say.

The Playstation 3 brand will be well and truly galloping by 2010 despite some views to the contrary. Sony will not let the Playstation brand fail, despite the slow sales of their next-gen offering. They can already smell blood with Xbox 360 sales dropping off in Europe and will no doubt swallow up the 360's lead by the end of 2008 thanks to the Japanese market.

So what does Nintendo do to keep their lead? Wii 2 of course. Sounds simple and it should be. By 2012 (5 years into the Wii's lifecycle) i can imagine the following:-

• Wii 1 - price shift to £99 RRP in UK (that's where i'm based).
• Wii 2 - new console launched at £179 RRP in UK (same price as Wii launch price).

What's the difference between the 2 consoles? Nintendo should add "next gen" graphical and audio components to Wii 2 to bring it up to par. By 2012, components will be a lot cheaper than they are today and affordable to the mass-market (unlike £425 for a PS3!). The Wii-controller will still provide the gaming edge with Wii 2, but the games will look and sound awesome too, and the price point will be attractive too.

So that's how i see it. In 4-5 years time they will have 2 consoles, Wii and Wii 2. Wii for the kids in their bedroom, Wii 2 for the tech-hungry gamers yearning for graphics to match the HD-telly in their front room.

What does everybody else think?

Welcome. I have a feeling I won't be the only one here saying I disagree. In reality, there is no evidence to support any theory that the Wii will simply stop selling. In all previous cases, once a system gets going and gathers third party support, interesting games keep getting made for it. At this rate the Wii will have the largest library of all three current gen consoles, and will be selling the most, will have the most shop floor space. The odds of a comeback at that point are minimal as developers put more and more of their money on the Wii.

And so long as Nintendo keeps selling Wiis, they're going to keep supporting it. Don't count on a Wii2 until Wiis stop selling, or there's some serious next-gen competition, that's how Nintendo has always done things.

It is possible that PS3 and/or Xbox 360 might close the gap on Wii in later years but it will have everything to do with price and very little to do with increased sales of HDTVs. The huge majority of people are not buying HDTVs because they want to watch HD. They are buying them because they want sexy new flat screens and it's impossible now to find a flat screen that isn't HD. Most people even think what they are watching is HD as long as it's a HDTV. So I think it will have a minimal impact on sales of PS3 and 360. I use a HD projector on an 80 inch screen to play Wii and would never consider buying a PS3 or 360 just cause I want to play games in HD.

But if in 2010 PS3/360 costs about £150 to £200 then I can see people buying them in massive numbers because they would represent good value for money given the games and what they can do and they would be at a price which many people can afford. However, by the time they can get to such affordable prices it might be too late to catch up especially as Wii could itself cost as little as £90.

Look, another Sony fan, or graphic whore (for lack fo a better term) here to chime in how Wii will fade.

This is a debate crushed almost as many times as Goombas.

I'll put it plain and simple. The video game market you are familiar with was a small niche market that was stagnating. Nintendo is tapping the far larger casual market. Given the sheer size of it, there is easily a market base to sustain the growth for years to come.

You do realize by 2012 we'll have a new console from all 3 companies, don't you?

The PS2 was the weakest graphically last generation. You are seriously overplaying the power of graphics in this industry.

I don't think i said it would stop selling. By 2012 (5 years into lifecycle) i think the Wii will have lost sales momentum and will need a "refresh". PS3 will eventually succeed as it will last longer than Wii as its clearly more future proof. Hence the need for Nintendo to think about how to get around this...

Nintendo loves its hardware updates too (GBA, GBA Micro, DS, DS Lite) and will clearly be in a position to provide a cheap and powerful update to the Wii without changing the control interface. Wii 2 or Wii "HD" (whatever they call it) will be a console to sit side by side the current console and will appeal to 2 different demographics, in my opinion (like PS3 and PS2).

I take your point that it may be longer than 2012 before they release the next console, i was going off previous console lifecycle history. Sony are the first to claim theirs will last 10 years, something i'm sure Nintendo are thinking about...

Really I can care less about Nintendo's next. I read that you said 360 is selling a low in Europe. Let's see if that really happens this holiday season.

Mr. Wibbly think about what you are saying here. You are saying console that has lagged behind five years will suddenly take off because of pricing. In five years developers will be shifting to Wii2, X-box 720, and PS4. Their has never been a console that has done what you are stating.

If the PS3 doesn't make huge strides starting this holiday it will be doomed to an Gamecube/X-box to a N64 level of performance when it comes to user base. The PS3 is currently selling slower than the Gamecube at this point. There second place system in Japan always sells less than 6 million units. Usually in the 3 to 5 million range to be more specific. In fact the Saturn was the best selling second place system in Japanese history with 5.76 million units. The PS3 will be lucky to sell 20% of the systems the PS2 did in Japan. The PS3 is consistently out sold by the Wii at over 3 to 1 in the US and by the 360 at a 2 to 1 clip. In fact its US performance is worse than its Japanese performance when you take into account how the PS2 sold in the US. It gets farther and farther behind the Wii each month in Europe and it is still behind the 360.

What are you reasons for this line of thinking? I have seen it expressed by many, but no one has yet to adequately explain it. In truth by the time the PS3 is cheap enough to sell in significant numbers, the battle for this generation will have been long over.

Yeah, I agree with most of the postings mr. wibbly.
There is no such thing as futureproof hardware. There just isn't. (Its just a wet dream of Sony)
In 5 years we will all laugh at the ps3's computing powers.

The only thing truly futureproof in the console industry is money and Nintendo is making tons of it right now.