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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony FY 3/09' Results, FY 3/10' Projections Coming May 14

NJ5 on 14 May 2009

@aderoche: I was thinking the same thing. It goes against my predictions, but I don't see how they can pull 13 million off without a $100 price cut. Otherwise why would they predict a record amount of PS3 sales in this economic environment?

Nevertheless, I don't think they'll be profitable with that price cut if it happens. I predict a lot of hard questions from investors and analysts on this PS3 forecast at the conference later today. They had promised to focus on profitability, which doesn't seem to be happening if they're planning that price cut.

Even though the PS3 will get more profitable, the big problem profitability wise are the declining PS2 sales which aren't completely offset by PS3's improvement, especially with a price cut.



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leatherhat on 14 May 2009
TheSource said:

The software figures for FY March 2010 seem a bit high to me, but its certaintly possible.

Of the 240m predicted it looks like over half will have to be on PS3 though. PSP software rates are likely to drop to ~0.67 from ~1.0 this year on a games purchased per the 65m user basis...which is like 43m games, down from 50m this year. Without strong hardware sales the PSP software market would be irrelevant already. These rates assume the new PSP Go is introduced successfully as well.

PS2 sw dipped by over 70m this fiscal year. With hardware at 5m for the year its hard to imagine software totals over 55m for PS2.

They forecast 240m games shipped though, so I get about 140m PS3 games shipped in the fiscal year, which would dip the games per user rate from 4.5 this fiscal year to 4 in the next fiscal year. Seems a little optimistic to me on 13m PS3s even with a price cut likely justifying an extra game purchase for most new users.

As I said in my opening tirade, the real problem for Sony is that PS2/PSP software totals should amount to as little as 50m-60m in the following fiscal year, and even though PS3 will probably grow again the company is in a real danger of not seeing software shipments top 200m in a few years.

FY 3/2009 - PSP + PS2 = 134m / PS3 - 103m

FY 3/2010 - PSP + PS2 = 97m/ PS3 - 143m  (240m)

FY 3/2011 - PSP + PS2 = 55m / PS3 - 160m (215m)

FY 3/2012 - PSP + PS2 = 25m / PS3 - 140m  (165m)

To me, it looks like they should probably try to launch PSP2 in late 2010 so that they don't dip under 200m. PS4 would make sense in late 2011.

 

I think, given the strong lineup of games, that psp software will be significantly higher then last year.



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NJ5 on 14 May 2009

Their PDF has some words on the forecast for the Game unit in 2009. Copy paste didn't work, so posting as an image:



No word of any price cut here, and profitability of PS3 would improve... Something doesn't quite compute here.

 



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FilaBrasileiro on 14 May 2009
NJ5 said:
@aderoche: I was thinking the same thing. It goes against my predictions, but I don't see how they can pull 13 million off without a $100 price cut. Otherwise why would they predict a record amount of PS3 sales in this economic environment?

Nevertheless, I don't think they'll be profitable with that price cut if it happens. I predict a lot of hard questions from investors and analysts on this PS3 forecast at the conference later today. They had promised to focus on profitability, which doesn't seem to be happening if they're planning that price cut.

Even though the PS3 will get more profitable, the big problem profitability wise are the declining PS2 sales which aren't completely offset by PS3's improvement, especially with a price cut.

 

Hence why they predict to lose money on Games again next year, there'll be a price cut, that much is obvious and it'll come before the Holiday season, otherwise ain't no way in hell they get even 10 million PS3s shipped this year, let alone 13 million.

 

With that said, SNE stock is at 25.50 as of right now, having dropped $.99 (3.69%) yesterday, I reckon it'll drop another $1 or maybe even more today.



Spankey on 14 May 2009

Also, It's time they sold off Sony Ericsson.
If anyone's crazy enough to buy it, that is.



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TheTruthProphet on 14 May 2009

1 billion dollar loss confirmed.

Where are all the sony fans saying it was all just a bunch of lies from xbox fanboys??



FilaBrasileiro on 14 May 2009
Spankey said:
Also, It's time they sold off Sony Ericsson.
If anyone's crazy enough to buy it, that is.

 

Funny you should mention that, it's been rumored that Ericsson is trying to get the fuck out of that venture, and guess who's trying to buy their half? That's right, Sony.....



Spankey on 14 May 2009
TheTruthProphet said:
1 billion dollar loss confirmed.

Where are all the sony fans saying it was all just a bunch of lies from xbox fanboys??

 

why do you insist on bringing stupid fanboy crap into this thread?

SCE is only down by $600mil. $500mil. (thanks Truthhurts)

Sony as a whole is down by ~$1.3 billion.

Some analysts were expecting double that.

 



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TheTruthProphet on 14 May 2009

500 million loss in gaming division

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a.j1GY6DLfWY&refer=japan



Spankey on 14 May 2009
FilaBrasileiro said:
Spankey said:
Also, It's time they sold off Sony Ericsson.
If anyone's crazy enough to buy it, that is.

 

Funny you should mention that, it's been rumored that Ericsson is trying to get the fuck out of that venture, and guess who's trying to buy their half? That's right, Sony.....

 

*inserts facepalm.gif*

omg. I hope you're wrong on that.



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